✍ Everyone's talking about war in Lebanon but I'm not sure how genuine that is.

I'm failing to actually formulate a scenario where Israel actually thinks an invasion of south Lebanon is going to be better than the current situation in its worse image.

I'd be quite surprised if Israel actually invades Lebanon, and would even place a bet on that if betting was permissible in Islam.

Under the current circumstances, Israel is getting free reign to assassinate anyone in south Lebanon no matter how senior, attack any infrastructure, let that be military or civilian, and degrade what they can degrade in terms of experienced manpower and systems.

During this, they are ensuring a campaign with minimal human loss, and where failure can be masked with a fake image of success. Its like a poker game, but the loser can walk out saying I won with bags of monopoly money.

So under such, why would you think Israel is willing to lose hundreds of soldiers and dozens of settlers in a limited ground incursion into south Lebanon?

An incursion that can only happen after a 1-3 weeks of intense air attacks that will be retaliated with intense rocket and missile attacks towards Haifai, Safad, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and so on.

Hezbullah's rocket units are barely operational now. What Gaza did on 7-October in terms of firepower, Hezbullah is able to sustain for weeks at least.

That while they move the bulk of their forces to northern Israel and keep their limited forces sandwiched between Hamas fighters in Gaza.

Yes I understand Israelis are delusional f*cks, with a victim mentality and a martyr complex who make the situation look worse. Its true Hezbullah had lots of success on the front, but the damage Israel caused is not simple and quite important.

As of now, I cannot imagine the worse scenario being other than a air campaign around south Lebanon and maybe Beirut, retaliated with a strong rocket response by Lebanon and concluded by ceasefire negotiations.

But I do think there is still a possibility of a land incursion under the following scenario:
- With Israel not planning to leave Gaza after the war, and/or the failure to reach a ceasefire the battle in Gaza might feel like a new cold war. One similar to Syria's Idlib front.

Will Hezbullah treat this as an ongoing war and stipulate that it needs to continue the Lebanese front active to support Gaza? Or will there be no need as the Israeli army efforts dwindled and no longer mount to a full scale war.

If the battle here continues and a cold war looms over Gaza, the Israeli army could possibly treat Gaza as a secondary front and direct reserve and police special forces there and move regular and elite soldiers to a front with Lebanon.

That front under the pretext of bringing calm to the north and establishing calm in south. We can only wait and see.

All id like to say, especially with the hardship of losing friends and family in any upcoming war, is that may they shed plenty of blood before their blood is shed on the sacred lands of south Lebanon and the Galilee.

📹 Several houses were attacked in Metulla settlement.

⭕️ Hezbullah announce they attacked several houses in Metulla used by the Israeli army in response to the latter's aggression on Lebanese civilian homes yesterday.

An additional base in Al-Manara was attacked.

A few rockets were fired at Ramtha and Zindeen bases.

📹 The Israeli army released footage of their attacks on Aita al-Shaab, Ramiah, and Yaroun, claiming to target infrastructure and buildings where members of the resistance were spotted.

The Israeli army used an ATGM and drone strike in two of the attacks.

⚠️ A few earlier, an explosion took place in Sidon province.

Israeli UAVs are active over the area

📷 Sidon Province: It seems there was several Israeli drone strikes in a field.

📷 No casualties in the attack in Sidon province. Target is unclear as the area was an open field.

✍ The enclave Israeli homefront has not been exposed to any real danger since 1948 and even until today, as in the settlers of Greater Tel Aviv and other big cities have never tasted what the settlers of the Gaza Strip border nor the residents of the north have ever tasted.

Yes, some dangers occurred, such as suicide operations at the beginning of the Al-Aqsa Intifada, and the panic from 7-Oct, and the Iranian attack.

But deep inside, they feel safe, and the most arrogant and war-loving who have been calling for a war on Lebanon and think it is a game that will result in a few sirens and some disruption of their everyday life.

What they don't understand is that their fate will turn into the fate of the residents of Sderot and Kiryat Shmona. They will be treated the same and share their lifestyle.

When the sky reveals the fall of missiles as big as minarets, Israel will know the meaning of fear, panic, horror and death.

By Saed Zein on X

📷 After a full day of artillery attacks, the Israeli army carried an airstrike on Kfarkila village.

📰 Regarding the attack on Sidon city, for the first time in this war, the event is still unclear. One missile failed to explode and will be safely detonated by the Lebanese army.

📷 Some of the remains from the Israeli attack on Sidon, which looks like the copper base of the penetration charge.

Locals suspect the drone strike targted previously planted Israeli spy equipment in the field.

⭕️ Hezbullah issued another statement announcing they attacked houses in Metulla settlement in response to the Israeli attack on 3 Lebanese villages and damaging civilian property.

⭕️Hezbullah issued the following teaser

"Wait to see...for those who it may concern."

⭕️ "If a war is forced on us, we will fight without any boundaries, limits, or rules."

The video then proceeds to show unnamed Israeli army bases and civilian infrastructure with their coordinates.

Video ends by quoting Hezbullah's honorable leader Hujjatollah Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah:

"Who plots a war against us, will regret it"

🇺🇸/🇮🇱 The Pentagon purposely leaks to US media about Israel plans to attack or invade Lebanese during next month - mid July.

These leaks are usually meant to embarrass Israel and force it to change plans.

⭕️ Earlier this morning, Hezbullah attacked Beit Hillel barracks with suicide drone, targeting the soldiers' quarters.

The attack was in retaliation to the assassination yesterday that killed a Muslim brotherhood member in Beqaa region.

⚠️ Additionally rocket alerts sounded in central Galilee, likely for the first time in this area.

Could be of fear of shrapnel from attempted interceptions of a drone

📹 One successful interception is reported in the area, in central Galilee.

The area is close to Rafael Military factories

✈️ Drone alert in the upper eastern Galilee

✍ Today is just a reminder how overdramatic and victim-mentality Israelis are.

A recon drone shot down over an area some 25 km from the border is a major incident, forgetting how Israel carried a drone strike in Sidon province yesterday and an assassination 40-50 km from the border.

Or a series of attack just few days ago that were outside the current frontline borders, causing extensive damages in Lebanon. Calm down you clowns.

⭕️ Hebrew Channel 14: A suicide drone exploded in the “Ayelet Hashkhar” area. There are casualties.

✈️ Initial reports of 4 casualties, at least two in medium condition and one is unknown.

This is a applause-worthy strike, considering it is far from line of sight and requires good intel and oversight.