@sethkeshel was on the @DarkToLight podcast on Friday. If you missed his appearance on Doug Billing's show a few weeks ago, don't miss this one:
https://open.spotify.com/episode/5FvH2nhFrRcXU9LnMJ7qRY?si=grmoYTd1QmamyjI3Q0c1VA&utm_source=copy-link&dl_branch=1
https://open.spotify.com/episode/5FvH2nhFrRcXU9LnMJ7qRY?si=grmoYTd1QmamyjI3Q0c1VA&utm_source=copy-link&dl_branch=1
Forwarded from Captain Keshel and Co. American Election Integrity HQ
NEVADA
2 OF 2
The rest of the counties (14 + Independent City Carson City) Trended as expected. I only missed by 500 votes (in case you wondered how accurate party ID is in predicting).
Here are the guts on Clark and Washoe.
In Clark, Dems added a lot of new voters (how many were alive during registration process is key - Jim Marchant, if elected Sec of State, just may be able to figure that problem out for us); however, they were dwarfed by GOP. Trump blows away GWB 2004 gain with 111k NEW votes from 2016 when he nearly won NV (and almost certainly did in a fair race), but of course Biden comes up with a 119k GAIN in new votes despite the huge GOP registration gain advantage. Obama had the previous record of 99k, but had a tremendous shift in voter ID to back up those gains.
Washoe on the right - numbers are hard to crack without firsthand knowledge. Any of you Reno sleuths with inside baseball or evidence, please notify me below.
I believe Trump carried NV by 75-125k votes.
2 OF 2
The rest of the counties (14 + Independent City Carson City) Trended as expected. I only missed by 500 votes (in case you wondered how accurate party ID is in predicting).
Here are the guts on Clark and Washoe.
In Clark, Dems added a lot of new voters (how many were alive during registration process is key - Jim Marchant, if elected Sec of State, just may be able to figure that problem out for us); however, they were dwarfed by GOP. Trump blows away GWB 2004 gain with 111k NEW votes from 2016 when he nearly won NV (and almost certainly did in a fair race), but of course Biden comes up with a 119k GAIN in new votes despite the huge GOP registration gain advantage. Obama had the previous record of 99k, but had a tremendous shift in voter ID to back up those gains.
Washoe on the right - numbers are hard to crack without firsthand knowledge. Any of you Reno sleuths with inside baseball or evidence, please notify me below.
I believe Trump carried NV by 75-125k votes.