๐บ๐ธ US FEB. NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE -92K M/M; EST. +70K
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Financial World Updates
The latest US labor market data came in mixed, with job growth sharply missing expectations while wage growth stayed firm.
โ Nonfarm Payrolls: -92K vs +59K expected
โ Unemployment rate: 4.4% vs 4.3% expected
โ Average hourly earnings: +0.4% M/M vs +0.3% expected
โ Average hourly earnings: +3.8% Y/Y vs +3.7% expected
Nonfarm Payrolls measure how many jobs were added or lost across the US economy, excluding farming. A negative print signals contraction in hiring.
The unemployment rate rising to 4.4% suggests the labor market is starting to soften, but wage growth remaining strong indicates inflation pressure from salaries is still present.
For markets, weaker employment with still rising wages complicates the Federal Reserveโs outlook on rate cuts.
๐ช t.iss.one/FinancialWorldUpdates
โ Nonfarm Payrolls: -92K vs +59K expected
โ Unemployment rate: 4.4% vs 4.3% expected
โ Average hourly earnings: +0.4% M/M vs +0.3% expected
โ Average hourly earnings: +3.8% Y/Y vs +3.7% expected
Nonfarm Payrolls measure how many jobs were added or lost across the US economy, excluding farming. A negative print signals contraction in hiring.
The unemployment rate rising to 4.4% suggests the labor market is starting to soften, but wage growth remaining strong indicates inflation pressure from salaries is still present.
For markets, weaker employment with still rising wages complicates the Federal Reserveโs outlook on rate cuts.
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Trump says "there will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender."
US oil prices immediately surge to a 2-year high.
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๐บ๐ธ๐จ๐บ US President Trump says Cuba will fall 'pretty soon.'
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About $800B wiped from U.S. stocks at the open.
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Mastercard introduced โVerifiable Intent,โ a new standards-based trust layer developed with Google to provide cryptographic proof of user authorization for AI-driven purchases.
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๐บ๐ธ๐ท๐บ Treasury Secretary Bessent says the US may lift sanctions on Russian oil.
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๐ฏ๐ต TARIFFS: Japan asked the United States not to disadvantage Tokyo under new tariff rules that could raise duties on Japanese goods to 15%.
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๐บ๐ธ Average US gas prices rise to $3.45 for the first time since September 2024.
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๐บ๐ธ US oil prices fall -$15/barrel in under 2 hours, now trading below $104/barrel, on reports that G7 countries are considering releasing 400 million barrels of crude oil reserves.
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If the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists, oil prices could surge toward an inflation-adjusted record near $215 per barrel.
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๐ฐ๐ท Bank of Korea to buy up to 3T Won of government bonds.
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Elon Musk:
"China is rapidly reducing dependence on oil."
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The sharp surge in oil prices following the U.S.โIran conflict is increasing fears of stagflation in the U.S. economy.
Oil has jumped from around $70 to nearly $120 in just a few days โ roughly a $50 increase since the last inflation report.
Historically, every $10 rise in oil adds about +0.2% to U.S. inflation and reduces GDP growth by ~0.1%.
With the current CPI at 2.4% and GDP growth at 1.4%, the oil shock could push inflation toward ~3.5%, while economic growth may slow to around 0.8% โ a classic stagflation scenario where prices rise while the economy weakens.
This puts the Federal Reserve in a difficult position:
โข Raise rates โ risk slowing the economy further
โข Cut rates โ risk fueling inflation
For now, markets are hoping for a quick de-escalation of the conflict and a drop in oil prices.
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๐ฎ๐ท Iran warns oil could hit $200 a barrel if neighbors fail to restrain Trump.
โIf you can tolerate oil at more than $200 per barrel, continue this game,โ said a Revolutionary Guards spokesman.
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USOIL dropped -19% following G7 countries reportedly considering releasing 400 million barrels of crude oil from reserves.
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Key Events This Week
The week is centered around US inflation. Wednesday brings the February CPI report, while Friday delivers a dense macro block with the Fedโs preferred inflation gauge, GDP data, and labor market indicators. Markets will mainly be watching whether inflation continues to cool or remains sticky enough to delay rate cuts.
โก๏ธ Monday
โ US Daylight Saving Time shift
US markets move to daylight saving time, which shifts the trading schedule relative to Europe and other regions. For many traders outside the US, the New York session and US data will arrive one hour earlier.
โก๏ธ Tuesday
โ Oracle $ORCL earnings
โ Existing Home Sales
Oracle earnings may influence sentiment around enterprise tech and AI infrastructure. Housing data gives a quick read on demand in the US property market under current mortgage rates.
โก๏ธ Wednesday
โ February CPI Inflation data
This is the key macro release of the week. The report shows how quickly consumer prices are rising and strongly influences expectations for Federal Reserve rate policy.
โก๏ธ Thursday
โ Initial Jobless Claims
โ Adobe $ADBE earnings
Jobless claims provide an early signal of labor market conditions. Adobe earnings will be watched for signals about enterprise software demand and broader tech spending.
โก๏ธ Friday
โ Core PCE Inflation data
โ Q4 GDP data
โ JOLTS Job Openings
โ Consumer Sentiment
Main focus: Wednesdayโs CPI and Fridayโs macro cluster.
๐ช t.iss.one/FinancialWorldUpdates
The week is centered around US inflation. Wednesday brings the February CPI report, while Friday delivers a dense macro block with the Fedโs preferred inflation gauge, GDP data, and labor market indicators. Markets will mainly be watching whether inflation continues to cool or remains sticky enough to delay rate cuts.
โ US Daylight Saving Time shift
US markets move to daylight saving time, which shifts the trading schedule relative to Europe and other regions. For many traders outside the US, the New York session and US data will arrive one hour earlier.
โ Oracle $ORCL earnings
โ Existing Home Sales
Oracle earnings may influence sentiment around enterprise tech and AI infrastructure. Housing data gives a quick read on demand in the US property market under current mortgage rates.
โ February CPI Inflation data
This is the key macro release of the week. The report shows how quickly consumer prices are rising and strongly influences expectations for Federal Reserve rate policy.
โ Initial Jobless Claims
โ Adobe $ADBE earnings
Jobless claims provide an early signal of labor market conditions. Adobe earnings will be watched for signals about enterprise software demand and broader tech spending.
โ Core PCE Inflation data
โ Q4 GDP data
โ JOLTS Job Openings
โ Consumer Sentiment
Main focus: Wednesdayโs CPI and Fridayโs macro cluster.
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๐ธ๐ฆ World's largest oil company Saudi Aramco cuts production at two oil fields, Reuters reports.
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