Final indication in our analysis is the so-called Sobyanin-Sukhovolski method, which is used in analysing electoral results for anomalies.

In several stations GD got nearly all of the registered votes, much higher than the supporting share of population would indicate.

If in normal legitimate voting a party has 40% support within the electorate, it receives ~400 votes from 1000 voters on, leading to stations track the trend line without too much divergence.

This takes place also in Georgia in the capital Tbilisi and other urban municipalities.

The picture changes when moving onto the more rural and traditionally government-voting municipalities: GD receives nearly 100% of the amount that is registered for the station in several dozens of instances, the data points close to the black line of 100% of registered voters.

Detailed election results are exceedingly hard to tamper with convincingly, as such tampering has to take into account a whole slate of variables and dimensions to remain credible.

Most of the time the tampering does not succeed and leaves its marks to the data.

We have followed and analysed hundreds of elections during the past decade.

It is safe to conclude that the 2024 Georgian parliamentary election exhibits clear fudging with the results, on top of the electoral violations reported elsewhere by observers.

All data used in our analysis is publicly available by Central Electoral Commission of Georgia, including the certification notes from each electoral station: https://results.cec.gov.ge/#/en-us/election_57/tr/prot

#Italy (#Liguria), regional elections:

Final results

Bucci (*-EPP|ECR|PfE): 48.8% (-7.3)
Orlando (PD-S&D): 47.4% (+8.5)
...

+/- 2020 election

➤ https://europeelects.eu/italy

#Italy (#Liguria), regional elections:

Final results

CDX-EPP|ECR|PfE: 48.3% (-8.2)
CSX-S&D|LEFT|G/EFA|RE: 47.9% (+9.1)
...

+/- vs. 2020 election

➤ https://europeelects.eu/italy

#Italy (#Liguria), regional elections:

Final results (Seats)

CDX-EPP|ECR|ID|RE: 18 (-1)
CSX-S&D|NI|G/EFA|LEFT|RE: 13 (+1)

+/- vs. 2020 election

➤ https://europeelects.eu/italy

#Hungary, Századvég poll:

Fidesz/KDNP-PfE: 43% (-8)
TISZA-EPP: 34% (new)
MH-ESN: 7% (-3)
MKKP→G/EFA: 7% (-2)
DK-S&D: 4% (-7)
MSZP-S&D: 2% (+1)
Momentum-RE: 2% (-6)

+/- vs. January 2024

Fieldwork: October 2024
Sample size: 1,000

➤ https://europeelects.eu/hungary

#Hungary, Nézőpont poll:

Fidesz/KDNP-PfE: 46% (-1)
TISZA-EPP: 35% (+2)
MH-ESN: 6%
DK-S&D: 5% (n.a.)
MKKP→G/EFA: 3% (+1)
Momentum-RE: 1%

+/- vs. 16-18 September 2024

Fieldwork: 14-17 October 2024
Sample size: 1,000

➤ https://europeelects.eu/hungary

#Hungary, Publicus poll:

TISZA-EPP: 39% (new)
Fidesz/KDNP-PfE: 37% (-9)
DK-S&D: 8% (-10)
MH-ESN: 4%
MKKP→G/EFA: 4%
Momentum-RE: 2% (-5)
MSZP-S&D: 2% (-4)
Jobbik-NI: 1% (-1)

+/- vs. 12-15 December 2023

Fieldwork: 11-18 October 2024
Sample size: 1,000

➤ https://europeelects.eu/hungary

#Hungary, 21 Kutatóközpont poll:

TISZA-EPP: 42% (new)
Fidesz/KDNP-PfE: 40% (-2)
MH-ESN: 5% (-3)
DK-S&D: 4% (-11)
MKKP→G/EFA: 4% (-1)
Momentum-RE: 2% (-7)
Jobbik-NI: 1% (-6)
MSZP-S&D: 1% (-3)

+/- vs. 24-29 August 2023

Fieldwork: 9-15 October 2024
Sample size: 1,000

➤https://europeelects.eu/hungary

#Croatia, Ipsos poll:

Presidential election

Milanović (*-S&D): 43% (+6)
Primorac (*-EPP): 30% (-2)
Selak-Raspudić (*): 9% (-14)
Kekin (Možemo-G/EFA): 7% (-3)
Kolakušić (PP-*): 4% (n.a.)
Bulj (Most→ECR): 4% (n.a.)

+/- vs. 1-3 August 2024

Fieldwork: 1-22 October 2024
Sample size: 980

➤ https://europeelects.eu/croatia/

#Germany, INSA poll:

CDU/CSU-EPP: 30% (-0.5)
AfD-ESN: 19%
SPD-S&D: 15% (-1.5)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 11% (+1)
BSW-NI: 9%
FDP-RE: 4%
LINKE-LEFT: 3% (+0.5)

+/- vs. 18-21 October 2024

Fieldwork: 21-25 October 2024
Sample size: 1,204

➤ https://europeelects.eu/germany

#Germany, INSA poll:

CDU/CSU-EPP: 31% (+1)
AfD-ESN: 19%
SPD-S&D: 15%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 11%
BSW-NI: 9%
FDP-RE: 4%
LINKE-LEFT: 2.5% (-0.5)

+/- vs. 21-25 October 2024

Fieldwork: 21-25 October 2024
Sample size: 2,008

➤ https://europeelects.eu/germany

#Germany, Forsa poll:

CDU/CSU-EPP: 32% (+1)
AfD-ESN: 17%
SPD-S&D: 16%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 9% (-2)
BSW-NI: 7%
FDP-RE: 4% (+1)
LINKE-LEFT: 3%

+/- vs. 15-21 October 2024

Fieldwork: 22-28 October 2024
Sample size: 2,503

➤ https://europeelects.eu/germany

#Germany: with a result of 9% in today's Forsa poll, GRÜNE (G/EFA) have fallen to their lowest polling number since November 2017.

➤ https://europeelects.eu/germany

#Latvia, SKDS poll:

JV-EPP: 16%
NA-ECR: 15% (-1)
LPV-PfE: 12%
P-G/EFA: 11%
ZZS~RE|S&D: 9% (+1)
AS-ECR: 9% (+1)
S-S&D: 8% (+1)
ST!→NI: 7% (-1)
SV-ECR: 4%
LA-RE: 3% (-1)
JKP→EPP: 2% (-1)
Par!-RE: 2%
PLV-NI: 1%
P21-*: 0%

+/- vs. August 2024

Fieldwork: October 2024
Sample size: 1,1807

➤ https://europeelects.eu/latvia

#Estonia, Norstat poll:

I-EPP: 31% (+3)
RE-RE: 16% (-4)
KE-RE|ECR: 14% (+1)
SDE-S&D: 13% (-3)
EKRE-PfE: 12%
PP→EPP: 5% (+1)
E200→EPP: 4%
ERK~ECR: 1%
EER-G/EFA: 1% (-1)
KOOS-*: 1%

+/- vs. 14-21 October 2024

Fieldwork: 21-28 October 2024
Sample size: 1,000

➤ https://europeelects.eu/estonia