#Bulgaria, national parliament election: the preliminary final result shows the right-wing Velichie-* party at 3.999%, 25 votes shy from the 4% threshold. If the Central Election Commission (CIK) finalizes the result, the party would lose national parliament representation.
➤ https://europeelects.eu/bulgaria/
➤ https://europeelects.eu/bulgaria/
#Bulgaria, national parliament election:
Preliminary final result
GERB/SDS-EPP: 26.4% (+1.7)
PP/DB-RE|EPP: 14.2 % (-0.1)
V-ESN: 13.4% (-0.4)
DPS/NN-RE: 11.9% (new)
BSPOL-S&D|LEFT: 7.6% (+0.5)
APS-RE: 7.5% (new)
ITN-ECR: 6.8% (+0.8)
MECh-*: 4.6% (+1.6)
Velichie-*: 3.999% (-0.7)
...
+/- vs. June 2024 election
➤ https://europeelects.eu/bulgaria/
Preliminary final result
GERB/SDS-EPP: 26.4% (+1.7)
PP/DB-RE|EPP: 14.2 % (-0.1)
V-ESN: 13.4% (-0.4)
DPS/NN-RE: 11.9% (new)
BSPOL-S&D|LEFT: 7.6% (+0.5)
APS-RE: 7.5% (new)
ITN-ECR: 6.8% (+0.8)
MECh-*: 4.6% (+1.6)
Velichie-*: 3.999% (-0.7)
...
+/- vs. June 2024 election
➤ https://europeelects.eu/bulgaria/
#Georgia: On top of the electoral integrity violations reported by observers, the widespread tampering in favour of the government is visible also in the detailed official results counts.
Europe Elects was independently able to reproduce the markings of fraud.
The biggest telltale sign of tampering with the results is implausible deviations from normal distribution when it comes to vote shares of a relevant party.
In more rural municipalities, the governing GD raked up disturbingly high vote shares much in excess of the expected.
Europe Elects was independently able to reproduce the markings of fraud.
The biggest telltale sign of tampering with the results is implausible deviations from normal distribution when it comes to vote shares of a relevant party.
In more rural municipalities, the governing GD raked up disturbingly high vote shares much in excess of the expected.
Europe Elects Official
#Georgia: On top of the electoral integrity violations reported by observers, the widespread tampering in favour of the government is visible also in the detailed official results counts. Europe Elects was independently able to reproduce the markings of fraud.…
As a contrast, for example the vote distribution of the opposition Unity (EPP|RE) party shows distinctly more trimmed and slim tails.
Europe Elects Official
As a contrast, for example the vote distribution of the opposition Unity (EPP|RE) party shows distinctly more trimmed and slim tails.
In the 2020 Georgian parliamentary election, deviations from a normal distribution were observed somewhat less when it comes to GD, indicating increased tampering with the results in a closely contested election in 2024.
Europe Elects Official
In the 2020 Georgian parliamentary election, deviations from a normal distribution were observed somewhat less when it comes to GD, indicating increased tampering with the results in a closely contested election in 2024.
The examples from Georgia above tend to be spiky and less clean-cut because of the limited volume of electoral stations and detailed breakdown.
We can witness for example in Italy that parties tend to produce a neat normal distribution with high volumes of data.
We can witness for example in Italy that parties tend to produce a neat normal distribution with high volumes of data.
Europe Elects Official
The examples from Georgia above tend to be spiky and less clean-cut because of the limited volume of electoral stations and detailed breakdown. We can witness for example in Italy that parties tend to produce a neat normal distribution with high volumes of…
We wrote in 2023 about the flagrant vote rigging taking place in Russia. Detecting fraud does not need to happen only with election observers.
Instead, released election results can be turned against the autocratic government purporting them to be real.
https://europeelects.eu/2023/11/13/russia-understanding-the-flagrant-vote-rigging-with-graphs/
Instead, released election results can be turned against the autocratic government purporting them to be real.
https://europeelects.eu/2023/11/13/russia-understanding-the-flagrant-vote-rigging-with-graphs/
Europe Elects
Russia: Understanding the Flagrant Vote-Rigging With Graphs - Europe Elects
Often when election results from Russia are discussed with other people, one pedantic argument is constantly brought up. It is the fact that while we can feel and…
Europe Elects Official
We wrote in 2023 about the flagrant vote rigging taking place in Russia. Detecting fraud does not need to happen only with election observers. Instead, released election results can be turned against the autocratic government purporting them to be real. …
One of these statistical rules that is hard to go around with detailed election results is the observation that a distribution of electoral stations across certain variables like party support or voter turnout is most often unimodal—that there is only a single peak.
Second is that the tails of these distributions tend not to be too pronounced.
It makes intuitive sense that a party would rack up relatively an average share of votes in more places than they rack up relatively high or low share of votes. Producing a normal distribution.
Second is that the tails of these distributions tend not to be too pronounced.
It makes intuitive sense that a party would rack up relatively an average share of votes in more places than they rack up relatively high or low share of votes. Producing a normal distribution.
Europe Elects Official
One of these statistical rules that is hard to go around with detailed election results is the observation that a distribution of electoral stations across certain variables like party support or voter turnout is most often unimodal—that there is only a single…
Yet the distribution of vote shares is not the only variable that can be employed to uncover indications of fraud.
Another important sign, also with Georgia’s case, is the so-called comet tail of increasingly higher vote shares, leading to higher vote count peak than expected.
Another important sign, also with Georgia’s case, is the so-called comet tail of increasingly higher vote shares, leading to higher vote count peak than expected.
Europe Elects Official
Yet the distribution of vote shares is not the only variable that can be employed to uncover indications of fraud. Another important sign, also with Georgia’s case, is the so-called comet tail of increasingly higher vote shares, leading to higher vote count…
The name of such phenomenon comes from Russian vote distributions where the custom is blatant and well observed. Increasing turnout leads to increasing vote share.
Image: Golos (https://golosinfo.org/en/articles/146617)
Image: Golos (https://golosinfo.org/en/articles/146617)
Europe Elects Official
The name of such phenomenon comes from Russian vote distributions where the custom is blatant and well observed. Increasing turnout leads to increasing vote share. Image: Golos (https://golosinfo.org/en/articles/146617)
In the case of Georgian Dream we notice a similar drift of progressively higher vote shares in election stations outside the ‘honest cloud’ of more legitimate and plausible clustering.
Which likewise leads to unconvincingly high peak, much in excess that are observed elsewhere.
Which likewise leads to unconvincingly high peak, much in excess that are observed elsewhere.
Europe Elects Official
In the case of Georgian Dream we notice a similar drift of progressively higher vote shares in election stations outside the ‘honest cloud’ of more legitimate and plausible clustering. Which likewise leads to unconvincingly high peak, much in excess that…
Final indication in our analysis is the so-called Sobyanin-Sukhovolski method, which is used in analysing electoral results for anomalies.
In several stations GD got nearly all of the registered votes, much higher than the supporting share of population would indicate.
In several stations GD got nearly all of the registered votes, much higher than the supporting share of population would indicate.
Europe Elects Official
Final indication in our analysis is the so-called Sobyanin-Sukhovolski method, which is used in analysing electoral results for anomalies. In several stations GD got nearly all of the registered votes, much higher than the supporting share of population would…
If in normal legitimate voting a party has 40% support within the electorate, it receives ~400 votes from 1000 voters on, leading to stations track the trend line without too much divergence.
This takes place also in Georgia in the capital Tbilisi and other urban municipalities.
This takes place also in Georgia in the capital Tbilisi and other urban municipalities.
Europe Elects Official
If in normal legitimate voting a party has 40% support within the electorate, it receives ~400 votes from 1000 voters on, leading to stations track the trend line without too much divergence. This takes place also in Georgia in the capital Tbilisi and other…
The picture changes when moving onto the more rural and traditionally government-voting municipalities: GD receives nearly 100% of the amount that is registered for the station in several dozens of instances, the data points close to the black line of 100% of registered voters.
Europe Elects Official
The picture changes when moving onto the more rural and traditionally government-voting municipalities: GD receives nearly 100% of the amount that is registered for the station in several dozens of instances, the data points close to the black line of 100%…
These patterns largely persist even when discounting the municipalities where national minorities are the majority and have arguably somewhat different voting patterns. This lends robustness to the overall argument.
Europe Elects Official
These patterns largely persist even when discounting the municipalities where national minorities are the majority and have arguably somewhat different voting patterns. This lends robustness to the overall argument.
Detailed election results are exceedingly hard to tamper with convincingly, as such tampering has to take into account a whole slate of variables and dimensions to remain credible.
Most of the time the tampering does not succeed and leaves its marks to the data.
We have followed and analysed hundreds of elections during the past decade.
It is safe to conclude that the 2024 Georgian parliamentary election exhibits clear fudging with the results, on top of the electoral violations reported elsewhere by observers.
All data used in our analysis is publicly available by Central Electoral Commission of Georgia, including the certification notes from each electoral station: https://results.cec.gov.ge/#/en-us/election_57/tr/prot
Most of the time the tampering does not succeed and leaves its marks to the data.
We have followed and analysed hundreds of elections during the past decade.
It is safe to conclude that the 2024 Georgian parliamentary election exhibits clear fudging with the results, on top of the electoral violations reported elsewhere by observers.
All data used in our analysis is publicly available by Central Electoral Commission of Georgia, including the certification notes from each electoral station: https://results.cec.gov.ge/#/en-us/election_57/tr/prot
#Italy (#Liguria), regional elections:
Final results
Bucci (*-EPP|ECR|PfE): 48.8% (-7.3)
Orlando (PD-S&D): 47.4% (+8.5)
...
+/- 2020 election
➤ https://europeelects.eu/italy
Final results
Bucci (*-EPP|ECR|PfE): 48.8% (-7.3)
Orlando (PD-S&D): 47.4% (+8.5)
...
+/- 2020 election
➤ https://europeelects.eu/italy
#Italy (#Liguria), regional elections:
Final results
CDX-EPP|ECR|PfE: 48.3% (-8.2)
CSX-S&D|LEFT|G/EFA|RE: 47.9% (+9.1)
...
+/- vs. 2020 election
➤ https://europeelects.eu/italy
Final results
CDX-EPP|ECR|PfE: 48.3% (-8.2)
CSX-S&D|LEFT|G/EFA|RE: 47.9% (+9.1)
...
+/- vs. 2020 election
➤ https://europeelects.eu/italy
#Italy (#Liguria), regional elections:
Final results (Seats)
CDX-EPP|ECR|ID|RE: 18 (-1)
CSX-S&D|NI|G/EFA|LEFT|RE: 13 (+1)
+/- vs. 2020 election
➤ https://europeelects.eu/italy
Final results (Seats)
CDX-EPP|ECR|ID|RE: 18 (-1)
CSX-S&D|NI|G/EFA|LEFT|RE: 13 (+1)
+/- vs. 2020 election
➤ https://europeelects.eu/italy