❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Battle for Avdiivka: Ukrainian Command Surrenders the City
Situation as of 05:00, February 17, 2024

🔻Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Alexander Syrsky, announced that the decision to leave Avdiivka was made by the Ukrainian command in order to protect the lives of Ukrainian military personnel and to secure more advantageous defense positions.

▪️ The Ukrainian troops of the "Tavria" group announced that they have already withdrawn from Avdiivka. However, this is not entirely accurate as there are still pockets of resistance remaining in the city. Additionally, numerous AFU groups have lost contact and control, so they may not even be aware of the decision to withdraw.

▪️ The disorganized retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, with losses, took place through the fields towards Lastochkino along the Durnaya Gully and the surrounding area. The approaches to Lastochkino and the exit from the gully were mined by the Russian "Agriculture" system on February 15, making it possible to leave only through the bodies of Ukrainian military personnel.

▪️ As night fell, Russian troops launched an assault on a reinforced concrete plant in the city center and continued their advance.

▪️ It is unlikely that they will abandon the Avdeevka Coke Plant or retreat beyond Lastochkino. The Ukrainian forces had enough time to prepare reserve positions.

▪️ If the Ukrainian Armed Forces hold on to AKHZ, Lieutenant General Andrei Mordvichev, the operation's commander, will most likely decide to bypass it and starve them out. This situation is similar to what happened with the Ilyich Plant and Azovstal in Mariupol, where a similar decision was made.

📌Clearing the city will take at least several days, as it is necessary to demine and thoroughly inspect residential areas.

❗️ The main priority is to maintain momentum and prevent the disorganized and uncontrollable enemy from regrouping and establishing a stable defense.

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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Avdiivka Direction: Intense Battles in Berdychi and Tonenkoe
Situation as of 12:00, March 6, 2024

🔻Ukrainian forces persist in their efforts to drive Russian fighters out of their occupied positions along the Berdychi-Orlovka-Tonenkoye line.

▪️ The AFU has deployed 7 army brigades to the area, tasked with seizing the initiative, thwarting any advances by the Russian Armed Forces, and buying time to fortify positions in Semyonovka, Yasnoborodovka, Umansky, and Novopokrovka.

On the Krasnoarmeysk front, up to 105 enemy battalions from 15 brigades are engaged.

▪️ The first echelon includes remnants of the 3rd separate assault PR brigade “Azov” and the 80th separate air assault brigade. Units of the 61st mechanized brigade are taking a defensive stance, while the 120th separate brigade of the AFU has been deployed to the area.

▪️ A status quo persists in Berdychi: the western part of the village is under enemy control, while the eastern part remains firmly held by the Russian Armed Forces. AFU army aviation operates to the west of the settlement but refrains from entering Berdychi itself.

▪️ Semyonovka serves as a central point for dispatching assault groups, engaged in combat both in Berdychi and Orlovka. Russian artillery and aviation target the AFU's front positions and advance routes.

▪️ The northwestern edge of Orlovka continues to be a battleground, with neither side able to secure a decisive advantage.

▪️ In the northwestern area of Tonenkoye, the AFU's recent attack on the position of the 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces was successfully repelled.

▪️ Within the semi-encircled areas between populated zones, the enemy forces remain present. Due to the extensive network of trenches, strongholds, and minefields, Russian troops have been limited to causing damage through artillery fire.

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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Avdiivka direction: Battles on the Berdychi - Tonenkoe line
Situation by 10:00, March 16, 2024

For the past few days, intense fighting has been ongoing in the Avdeevka direction in Berdychi and Tonenkoye, where the Russian Armed Forces managed to swiftly engage the retreating AFU units from Avdeevka.

Despite this, the enemy quickly regrouped and reinforced the sector, establishing numerical superiority in the entire direction with over 15 brigades gathered by March 6.

Consequently, the AFU successfully halted the rapid advancement of the Russian Armed Forces, although initially they had to employ artillery to block their own personnel's evacuation routes.

▪️ Despite facing a numerically superior enemy, the battles have become positional. The Russian Armed Forces maintain control over Tonenkoye and Orlovka, as well as the eastern outskirts of Berdychi. Enemy counterattacks originating from Semenovka using armored vehicles have failed to dislodge the Russian forces.

▪️ The northern flank in Berdychi, which poses the greatest challenge for the Russian Armed Forces and is crucial for the AFU, relies on Petrovskoye for support, along with the AKHZ and ash dump.

▪️ Concerns have been raised regarding the organization of an evacuation point in the village of Progress, west of Ocheretino. The enemy might attempt to launch attacks on the flank of the advancing Russian units, leveraging Novobakhmutovka and Solovyevo, where dense vegetation allows for relatively covert advances.

▪️ South of Berdychi, in Orlovka and Tonenkoe, the situation for Russian forces is relatively better. This is due to only two roads leading to Orlovka from Semenovka, and 4-6 kilometers of fields and plantings to the west of Tonenkoe leading to Umanskoye and Yasnobrodovka, which complicates enemy efforts to organize counterattacks.

▪️ Engineering work is also in progress in the same area along the route S-051801 Orlovka - Umanskoye - Netailovo, with the heights west of Umanskoye and Yasnobrodovka on the eastern bank of the Karlovskoye reservoir serving as a strategically advantageous natural defensive line.

▪️ Despite the current situation, the Russian Armed Forces are launching attacks. West of Tonenky,, an armored group with infantry has taken control of the ruins of a dairy farm. In the Berdychi area, a breakthrough was achieved towards the outskirts of Semenovka, although further consolidation is yet to be accomplished. The enemy halted the advancement by deploying their own infantry fighting vehicle.

❗️Furthermore, the “pockets” that emerged in the initial days of the offensive north and south of Orlovka have been at least partially cleared. The remaining enemy infantry faced heavy bombardment by “Sunlighters” resulting in their swift defeat: the enemy forces were effectively eliminated.

🔻The situation is significantly complicated by the abundance of drones among the enemy forces. This, in turn, not only hinders advances but also makes the retention of previously held positions challenging.

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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Avdiivka Direction: Liberation of Orlovka
Situation as of March 19, 2024

Russian forces, despite facing various challenges, are continuing their advancement to the west of Avdiivka.

▪️ As per the Russian Ministry of Defense, Russian forces have gained full control over Orlovka. The clearing of the settlement was completed by at least the morning of March 17, with the delay in communication attributed to repelling enemy counterattacks and consolidating the occupied positions.

▪️ With the village captured, Russian forces now have the opportunity not only to strike but also to push south of Semyonovka. This is crucial as the enemy is exerting significant pressure on Berdychi, where intense fighting is ongoing.

Consequently, this development will impact the ability to stabilize the northern flank of the offensive to the west of Avdiivka, which is currently under the threat of an enemy attack from Novobakhmutovka, and subsequently liberate Berdychi, and possibly Semyonovka.

🔻However, further westward advancement of the Russian Armed Forces in this region may not be strategically sound. To the west, the enemy is establishing a defensive line focusing on natural barriers such as heights and rivers. Additionally, to the north lies the Ocheretinsky fortified area, making any advance in the Gorlovka region an extremely challenging task, if not outright suicidal.

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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Avdeevsky direction: advancement of the Russian Armed Forces in the fields southwest of Tonenkoye
Situation as of 17:00, March 29, 2024.

Russian troops, following the liberation of Tonenkoye and the clearance of the surrounding area, have severed the “wedge” at the Vodyane-Tonenkoye line.

Footage released by the enemy on the Internet indicates that several forest belts to the northwest of Tonenky are now under control.

▪️ After consolidating the line of control, units of the Russian Armed Forces now have the opportunity to advance simultaneously towards Yasnobrodovka in the west and towards Pervomaisky in the south.

▪️ The latest reports show that the offensive is also progressing along the Tonkaya gully to the west, heading towards Umansky. With a coordinated attack from Orlovka, Russian troops will be able to cross the Durnaya River and establish a position along the C051801 road leading to Umanskoye.

🔻However, these advancements come at a cost. The presence of numerous unmanned aerial vehicles and FPV drones operated by the enemy has hindered the Russian Armed Forces' progress. In response, a strike from an attack drone launched by Russian UAV operators destroyed one of the enemy’s field warehouses.

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🇷🇺🇺🇦 Special Military Operation Chronicle
for April 5, 2024

Russian troops initiated multiple attacks on Motor Sich plant in Zaporizhia, as well as on enemy targets in Kharkov and surrounding areas. Another objective was the Novoodesskaya 330 substation in the Odessa region.

Ukrainian forces conducted a covert raid on the airfields of the Aerospace Forces aviation in Morozovsk, Yeysk, and Engels, without causing any casualties or damage to aircraft.

In Seversky region, near Vesely, Russian Armed Forces units seized an enemy stronghold and launched a successful offensive from Berestovoy towards Vyemka.

Battle is ongoing in Bakhmut region near Chasov Yar. Russian airborne units established positions on the eastern outskirts of the Novy microdistrict. To the south, conflicts are taking place in Stupki-Golubovskiye-2.

In Avdeevsky region, assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces are gathering in Semenovka, where they are being targeted by enemy artillery and drones. No significant changes have been reported in the vicinity of Berdychi and Semenovka.

In Zaporozhye region, clashes persist in the Robotyne area and northwest of Verbovoy. Ukrainian forces are fortifying the second line of defense in the Orekhov area.

In Kherson region, Russian units destroyed another boat carrying enemy personnel en route to relieve forces at the bridgehead in Krynki.

🔻 For a detailed analytical report on events within the Special Military Operation zone, visit our confidential channel @rybar_plus_bot

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