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Forwarded from Rybar in English
🇵🇭 🇨🇳🇺🇸 Domestic political tensions are increasing in the Philippines due to the “Chinese threat.” The number of accusations against China due to “dangerous” maneuvers in the South China Sea has increased several times compared to last year.

At the end of September, Vice President of the Philippines Sara Duterte congratulated the people of China on national holidays in Chinese. A week later, the country's parliament, as a sign of protest, decided to redirect the funding that her office was supposed to receive to the needs of the Philippine Coast Guard.

Duterte is the daughter of a former president, under whom bilateral relations with China actively developed. Under the current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., on the contrary, ties with the United States are expanding.

Duterte is also a likely presidential candidate in 2028, so money from these funds could be useful for the 2025 election campaign to elect new mayors, governors and congressmen.

If she participates in the presidential elections, then such financing could help her get her allies elected, which is not beneficial for Marcos Jr., who is doing everything to develop relations with the United States and receive American money.

🔻The situation clearly demonstrates that fashion has finally come to the Philippines to justify decisions beneficial to the political elite with the “Chinese threat ”. This was to be expected, given how actively the United States is promoting similar rhetoric in the Asia-Pacific region.
#Philippines #China #USA
together with @awaken_dragon

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Forwarded from Rybar in English
🇦🇺🇨🇳🇵🇭 The Activity of Armed Forces in the South China Sea

As expected, the increase in US military presence in Southeast Asia is gradually influencing other actors in the region and eliciting responses.

On November 25, joint patrols by military personnel from the Armed Forces of the Philippines and Australia commenced in the South China Sea.

The Philippine Armed Forces have deployed one frigate, an amphibious helicopter transport dock, and five F/A-50PH fighters. Meanwhile, the Australians have deployed the frigate Toowoomba and the P-8A anti-submarine aircraft.

Their area of ​​activity is focused on the Spratly Archipelago and its surrounding waters. These islands are subject to territorial disputes involving several states, including the People's Republic of China and the Philippines, due to their strategic location and abundance of natural resources.

🔻The actions of the two countries have drawn a significant response from China: two Su-35s, a Yunzhen-9 electronic reconnaissance aircraft, and a BZK-05 UAV have been operated over the patrol area. With tensions escalating, there is a possibility that an aircraft carrier group will be dispatched in the future, further exacerbating the conflicts.

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#Australia #China #Philippines
@rybar

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Forwarded from Rybar in English
🇦🇺🇨🇳🇵🇭 In addition to yesterday's post about a group of Chinese ships in Myanmar, the Chinese armed forces in the Asia-Pacific region have entered a new phase. The PLA Armed Forces are gradually expanding their presence.

🔻After observing the actions of the Philippine and Australian navies around the contested Spratly archipelago for several days, the PLA Air Force conducted a demonstration tactical training.

The training involved Jian-11 fighters, Jianhong-7A fighter-bombers, Kunjing-500 AWACS aircraft, and electronic reconnaissance and electronic warfare aircraft from air bases in the southeast of China.

🔻Chinese pilots practiced isolating the theater of operations with tactical aviation and electronic warfare aircraft. They subsequently simulated a full-scale armed conflict by bombing a limited area at sea.

This type of action primarily serves to train pilots in scenarios resembling real ones, especially considering that the PRC has limited practical experience in modern warfare.

However, the massive scale and frequency of exercises conducted near disputed territories in recent months speak for themselves. Just the other day, Chinese fighters once again tested Taiwan's air defense by flying directly over the Taiwan Strait.

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#Australia #China #Philippines
@rybar

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Forwarded from Rybar in English
🇵🇭🇨🇳 The Philippines is preparing to join the "race" to expand the disputed islands in the South China Sea, along with China, Taiwan, and Vietnam. The commander-in-chief of the country's armed forces recently announced plans for large-scale construction on nine controlled islands.

It was already speculated in December of last year that the disputed territories under the control of the Philippines would undergo significant modernization. Local politicians at that time called for the construction of a facility on the Second Thomas Shoal to assert their territorial claims. In the same month, a new coast guard station was built on Thitu Island.

These plans indicate the intention of the Philippine defense establishment to catch up quickly. During the reign of former President Rodrigo Duterte, no such activities were carried out on the islands.

Currently, the People's Republic of China, Vietnam, and even Taiwan are strengthening their control over the territories on the islands. In this "competition," China is currently leading in terms of bulk works in the water area.

It is likely that the Philippines will also pursue the strategy of creating artificial territories to expand their holdings in the South China Sea. They may also construct military facilities, such as coast guard garrisons, to enhance their monitoring of PLA ships.

📌 The large-scale construction will undoubtedly provoke a negative reaction from China, which claims the territory. It is expected that the Chinese side will obstruct the Filipinos in every possible way during the construction, especially given how frequently it persecutes and expels Filipino fishermen from the waters. Therefore, the tension in the South China Sea will only escalate.

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#Philippines #China
@rybar in collaboration with @awaken_dragon

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Forwarded from Rybar in English
🇨🇳🇺🇸 Chinese Air Force Activity in the Asia-Pacific Region

Over the past few weeks, the Chinese command has significantly increased its activity in the Asia-Pacific region in response to provocative actions by American troops and their allies in Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Australia.

🔻In response to regular exercises, bomber flights, and various movements of US Air Force aircraft, the Chinese have become more active in several areas.

–Near the border with Mongolia, Chinese pilots practiced scenarios of a full-scale conflict, likely involving Taiwan. This training area previously featured a full-scale model of the Taiwanese city Taipei, indicating the nature of the exercises. Additionally, the Taiwanese Air Force possesses aviation capabilities that make them a formidable adversary.

–Prior to this, Chinese N-6K bombers conducted a series of flights near the shores of South Korea, practicing simulated guided bomb attacks on American bases. Takeoffs were conducted from multiple air bases, and the bombers changed locations several times, likely simulating attacks on various air bases.

–The PLA Air Force has resumed tactical aviation flights around Taiwan. Taiwan has expressed concern about the increased PLA activity along the Taiwan Strait, where the Chinese conducted training in air combat and striking air defense positions.

–In the South China Sea, naval aviation activities continue, along with the operation of KJ-500 AWACS aircraft and drones in the vicinity of the disputed islands. The number of aircraft involved has notably increased. Furthermore, the same Wuzhen-7 or WZ-7 UAVs are now regularly patrolling the Philippine coast, a new development.

❗️The PLA Air Force's recent activity can be described as unprecedented, with numerous trainings conducted in different areas almost simultaneously. Chinese pilots are actively preparing, recognizing the importance of readiness despite the lack of real combat experience.

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#China #Republic of Korea #USA #Philippines #Japan
@rybar

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🇺🇸 🇯🇵🇵🇭🇨🇳

This year, the situation in the Asia-Pacific region risks becoming even more tense. The United States plans to deploy missile systems in the region capable of launching medium-range Tomahawk missiles and SM-6 missiles. This plan was recently announced by the commander of US ground forces in the Pacific, Charles Flynn.

This marks Flynn's second announcement since last November regarding the deployment of these missiles. However, the specifics of where and when the Americans will deploy them remain unclear.

As previously mentioned, the United States may deploy missiles and missile systems in various countries, including Japan and the Philippines, where American soldiers have access to military bases.

Moreover, one potential location for the deployment of equipment and missiles is Guam, one of the American territories in the Pacific Ocean. Many commentators now speculate that the Americans will opt for this location. However, the first two territories are not yet ruled out.

For instance, this week the United States brought the Typhon missile system to the Philippines, capable of launching Tomahawks and SM-6s. This equipment will be utilized as part of the bilateral exercises “Salaknib 2024”, providing an opportunity to assess the suitability of the likely missile deployment site. Similar evaluations are expected for Japan.

The deployment of missiles and missile systems in the Asia-Pacific region serves both as a deterrent and a political signal aimed at containing China. This intention becomes particularly pronounced if the United States selects the Philippines or Japan.

The introduction of new equipment could potentially spark a new arms race, benefiting major industrialists who stand to receive increased funding under the guise of countering the Chinese threat.

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#USA #Japan #Philippines #China
@rybar together with @awaken_dragon

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🇨🇳🇵🇭 On the Deteriorating China-Philippines Relations

Throughout July 2024, there was a lull in China-Philippines relations. This situation was the result of fairly successful negotiations - the parties agreed to resolve the tensions near the Second Thomas Shoal. However, recently the media again reported on the resumption of clashes in the South China Sea.

▪️In these cases, there is no violation of the agreement reached. Several incidents occurred near other disputed territories that were not on the agenda of the July negotiations.

▪️And although the Philippine side has already stated its readiness to expand the recently adopted agreement to other pieces of land in the South China Sea, the overall background of bilateral relations is becoming increasingly tense.

🔻Despite stable trade, interaction in other areas, such as tourism and investment, is decreasing. Thus, the administration of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. tightened restrictions on travel of Chinese citizens. Ultimately, this led to an outflow of tourists from China to other countries in the region.

Marcos Jr. also withdrew from several major projects related to the Chinese initiative "One Belt, One Road". In addition, the Philippine authorities openly advocate for the rejection of Chinese investments in the nickel mining sector, choosing Western investors instead.

All this is a purposeful result of the policy of the Philippine administration. And if in July it did not interfere with the conclusion of an agreement between Beijing and Manila, the settlement of tensions near other disputed territories may well complicate due to such actions by the Philippines.
#China #Philippines
@rybar together with @awaken_dragon

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