🇦🇲🇪🇺 The Impact of Nagorno-Karabakh: Concealment Operations, Western Gains, and Armenia's Losses

Recently, the European Union acknowledged the Armenian heritage in Nagorno-Karabakh and expressed “serious concern.”

Indeed, only since November 2023 have there been several instances showing appreciation for the diverse and culturally rich heritage of the region. But what actions can the EU take in another country when it even cancels an event on its own territory to safeguard the cultural legacy of Nagorno-Karabakh?

In reality, traditionally, no action will be taken to prevent the removal of crosses, the desecration of churches, and vandalism in cemeteries, except for mere words. However, under the pretext of safeguarding Christian culture (which European leaders still value), the EU Satellite Center could be legalized in the region, enabling constant monitoring.

Apart from providing humanitarian aid and conducting general security surveillance, the Center's stated capabilities include analyzing imagery of critical infrastructure, military capabilities, and - importantly - weapons of mass destruction. Given the close collaboration between the EU and the US, where the nuclear non-proliferation strategy involves preemptive military action, Armenia's neighbors should be concerned. The Iranian government, recalling past proposals for preemptive strikes on the country, is cautious of Armenia's increasing alignment with Western initiatives.

📌These initiatives are highly lucrative.

For instance, France is actively deploying its military equipment to regions where the West is deliberately instigating crises. Therefore, following the visit by the French Minister of Defense Lecornu to Moldova, they purchased a radar that fails to detect drone flights. It is highly probable that Armenia will also secure similar “successful” deals in the near future - especially when shown the strength of the enemy's weapons by a Western data center! While it is unlikely that any of these acquisitions from the zoo of purchases will truly aid in war, toward which Armenia's leaders are confidently steering the country, this doesn't deter them from enriching themselves in the end, feigning the bolstering of the country's defense capabilities.

🔻The monitoring center will also serve Israeli interests in the Caucasus regarding the fight for influence.

Beyond intelligence gathering, it will also fulfill a socio-cultural role that aligns with the “multi-vector policy”, creating a false sense of security among the populace from the presence of Western observers.

This, in turn, will encourage the country to take proactive measures when the owners deem it necessary. Meanwhile, the actual effectiveness of the army stands a good chance of falling short of the population's expectations, which have been significantly raised by Western promises, visits from EU politicians, and most notably, the replacement of old Soviet cotton pants with new ones tailored to the highest NATO standards.
#Armenia #Europe
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🇦🇲🇦🇿 Incredible (not) news: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, stated during a meeting with residents of border villages in the Tavush region that if Yerevan does not yield to the Azerbaijanis on the border issue, the war could start by the end of this week.

Just a few days ago, Pashinyan argued that there could be no consideration of handing over the Armenian village-exclaves in Tavush to Azerbaijan. However, the Prime Minister of Armenia, now on-site to evaluate the border delimitation process, expresses the opposite view.

🔻As noted by opposition Armenian politicians, surrendering villages in the Tavush region would cause the destruction of the Armenian defense line established since the 1990s. Consequently, the Azerbaijanis would find themselves in the Armenian rear.

Moreover, in the Armenian village of Voskepar, where Pashinyan is persuading residents to submit to the mercy of the Azerbaijanis, the main gas pipeline for Armenia runs from Georgia, which would fall under Azerbaijani control.

Yerevan also faces the risk of losing control over the interstate road connecting Armenia and Georgia. In effect, Armenia could potentially become an enclave surrounded by Azerbaijan.

🔻Pashinyan anticipates that following a potential conflict over Tavush, Armenians will accuse him of failing to alert the population about the conflict's likelihood. Curiously, there is not even a consideration that he might be accused primarily of the uncontrolled surrender of territories, since these are clearly not the final concessions.

❗️Subsequently, the Syunik region could be next in line, leading to the establishment of the “Zangezur Corridor”, connecting Azerbaijan and Turkey. The Armenian Foreign Ministry asserts that they have no intention of compromising their sovereignty in Syunik. However, as past events have demonstrated, the official statements from Pashinyan’s administration cannot be relied upon.
#Armenia #Azerbaijan
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🇦🇲🇦🇿 Individual footage of the “transfer of Armenian Armed Forces equipment to the Armenian-Azerbaijani border,” which is now circulating in the media, surfaced in Azerbaijani outlets yesterday.

▪️ The video depicts a road in Yeraskh village in the Ararat region of Armenia, close to the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan.

▪️ Analysis of the footage indicates that Azerbaijanis from the Nakhichevan Republic filmed the videos.

▪️ Updated information reveals that the Armenian Armed Forces were simply conducting a routine rotation, as military equipment columns were moving in various directions.

🔻Similar media campaigns from Azerbaijan have previously been used to accuse Armenians of posing a threat on the Azerbaijani border. The current narrative is effectively stoking tensions in anticipation of escalating tensions around the Syunik region, which is the next target for Baku.

However, as seen in previous instances, this provocation also benefitted the Armenian authorities. Pro-government media promptly initiated a campaign to discredit Russia: pointing fingers at the Russian side for colluding with Baku and allegedly providing information on the movements of the Armenian Armed Forces.

There is little doubt that during the next escalation, the pro-Pashinyan network will exhibit a similar pattern of behavior: while the Armenian authorities pretend to resist, withdraw troops, and cede territories, the media will shift blame to Russia.

#Armenia #Azerbaijan
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🇦🇿🇦🇲 There is no doubt that Azerbaijan is seeking a reason for escalation (or rather waiting for the go-ahead and getting ready).

But there are significant questions about the actions of the Pashinyan government, which has recently announced a new war several times. Instead of truly preparing for it, the government prefers to base its actions on Azerbaijan’s intentions to sign a peace treaty.

🔻Meanwhile, the Armenian Ministry of Defense commented on yesterday’s media hype about the transfer of equipment near the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic. They "assess the situation on the border as stable and do not see the need to take additional measures to protect the border."

This is not surprising, as the political decision NOT to prepare for war naturally led to a policy of sabotaging the Armenian army and the loss of essential competencies. #Armenia #Azerbaijan @rybar

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🇦🇲 🇦🇿 Regarding Tension on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Border

🔻Last night, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense reported that the Armenian army had launched attacks on Heyderabad and Bichenek in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, along the border with Armenia. Shortly after, the Armenian Ministry of Defense declared shelling of their positions near the villages of Kut and Teh in the Sotka and Sisian regions.

▪️ While there has been no confirmation from either side, given the ongoing events in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, such developments are becoming less surprising. Interestingly, for the second time in a week, Azerbaijani reports have highlighted activities near Yeraskh being documented: either showcasing construction work at the border or discussing instances of shelling.

▪️ The video from yesterday clearly shows the construction of earthen fortifications - a standard defensive measure in tense border areas. The Azerbaijani accusations of their opponents constructing strongholds for "offensive purposes" remain unclear.

▪️ Nonetheless, such rhetoric from Azerbaijanis, referring to the border with Armenians as "conditional," is no longer surprising. Azerbaijan does not conceal its territorial ambitions towards Armenia, actively preparing for annexation.

Border reconnaissance and army modernization efforts are ongoing, with the Azerbaijani armed forces utilizing new weapons and equipment. Therefore, the deployment of several strongholds by the Armenian army at the current level will serve little purpose if left unoccupied. Azerbaijan seems to require such accusations to justify their attacks.

❗️The Azerbaijani Armed Forces' activities are evidenced by the flights of Bayraktar drones over Armenia, both towards Yeraskh and Vardenis including Jermuk. Additionally, in southeastern Azerbaijan, the high-altitude UAV Akıncı has started operating for the first time. Given the capabilities of this drone, it is likely to appear near the Armenian borders soon.

Interestingly, local channels and media outlets are predicting a potential Azerbaijani attack as early as this month, although this scenario appears unlikely at the current stage. Instead, minor provocations and temporary escalations seem more probable. Blaming the Armenians for shelling and using it as a pretext to seize part of the land would be a more convenient option.

The lack of assertiveness from the Armenian authorities only adds to this situation.

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#Armenia #Azerbaijan
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🇦🇲🇪🇺🇺🇸 Today, there is celebration in pro-government Armenian channels as the Americans have pledged to allocate $65 million for reforms in government and the economy. Additionally, Ursula von der Leyen from the EU has committed to providing grants of 270 million euros over four years for business development.

🔻Armenians are being told stories about how the Western countries will assist Armenian businesses and economies in recovering and breaking free from Russia's influence. The question arises: how will this assistance be carried out?

Merely using populist slogans and providing small installments of funding will not effectively foster economic growth, especially when the sector is struggling. As previously mentioned, Armenian brandy has faced challenges in entering the European market.

▪️ While $65 million may not seem like a substantial sum, it holds significance for the Americans given their major financial support to Ukrainian and Israeli authorities. Yet, doubts linger about the effectiveness of aiding the financially strained Armenian government.

▪️ The grants promised by von der Leyen are set to be distributed over a four-year period. However, given the current situation with Azerbaijan, uncertainties arise regarding whether Yerevan will receive the full amount within the specified timeframe.

❗️Should the funds not be disbursed on time, the Europeans may redistribute them internally. On the contrary, timely transfer of funds in Armenia may expedite the process but raise concerns about misuse.

Allocation of funds towards democratic values and various movements, including the LGBT community, is anticipated. The reaction of ordinary Armenians to such developments, like transvestite parades in Yerevan, remains to be seen.

Hence, the Western actions do not reflect a strong commitment. It appears more as a reallocation of funds, providing a small consolation to the Pashinyan administration, accompanied by vague and inconclusive statements. This can be perceived as a "victory" for Pashinyan.
#Armenia #EU #USA
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Fwd from @None
Recently, the consulting company founded by former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen released a new report on the EU's relations with Armenia. Given that Rasmussen Global is now a key lobbying entity in Armenia, directly influencing the policies of the Pashinyan government and shaping its public image, we found it crucial to analyze this document.

Alongside the anticipated calls for Armenia to embrace democratization and to sever ties with Russia, the report also includes practical recommendations. However, Armenia is portrayed solely as a subject for external manipulation, rather than as an equal partner. Surprisingly, the Armenian leadership seems content with this dynamic.

#Armenia

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🇦🇲🇷🇺🇺🇦 At the moment when the Armenian population is justifiably and quite understandably opposing the meek surrender of four villages to Azerbaijan, the Speaker of the Armenian Parliament, Alen Simonyan, spoke in defense of the territorial integrity of the so-called Ukraine.

It is embarrassing to ask, but what about the territorial integrity of Armenia and the preservation of its borders? It is at least hypocrisy towards its citizens to speak of this when the Pashinyan administration has ceded Armenian villages.

One would like to see Armenian officials actively speaking out on the issue of Armenian sovereignty, instead of making meaningless statements in Spain. But this seems to be science fiction.

And looking at this, the natural question arises: who are the Armenian politicians working for?
#Armenia #Russia #Ukraine
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🇦🇲 Yesterday, a meeting was held in Yerevan between the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, and residents of Kirants village in Tavush region, who came to the capital to seek clarification from the authorities on the demarcation and delimitation of the border with Azerbaijan.

The "Tavush for the Homeland" movement stated after the negotiations that the authorities were unable to provide security guarantees to the residents of Kirants and other communities in Tavush region. In particular, the people of Kirants are extremely concerned that the new border will be just 100 meters from the school.

▪️The people of Tavush claim that "the current government of Armenia does not have a clear and alternative political strategy to ensure the security of its own citizens, to protect their right to life, property and ownership."

▪️The movement also noted that the republic has lost its military-political and diplomatic arsenal to protect its citizens, and the authorities are conducting an information campaign in which they manipulate the idea of protecting national interests and try to justify unilateral concessions.

▪️Meanwhile, the Armenian publication "Graparak", citing various sources, claims that the protesters in Tavush region intend to transfer the protest to Yerevan, where they will demand a change of power.

▪️Earlier, the media also reported on cases of beatings of Armenian soldiers by protesters in Kirants. At the same time, there is evidence that some soldiers, on the contrary, wrote resignation reports in protest against the authorities' policies.

📌Despite local protests by Armenian citizens and road blockades, the protest does not yet appear to be large-scale and centralized. The Armenian authorities and their Western curators likely have a plan to forcibly suppress the citizens' uprising in case the situation escalates.
#Armenia #protests
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Fwd from @pezdicide
🇦🇲🇺🇸🇷🇺 Interesting powers have appeared for Armenian civil servants - to report to American NGOs and provide them with data.

Armenian Ambassador to the USA Lilit Makunts recently visited the office of the RAND Corporation in Pentagon City and gave a report on the dynamics of Armenia's relations with the USA and Azerbaijan, as well as the prospects for the "Crossroads of Peace" project. This is all the information about the meeting that is publicly available.

📌 At the end of 2023, the Russian Ministry of Justice included the RAND NGO in the list of undesirable organizations.

RAND has a rich history of working for the CIA and the Pentagon, and half of the organization's research is classified. The corporation, for example, has been assessing Russia's military and defense potential since 2014, modeling military operations in Ukraine. It was RAND that became the author of the idea of a "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine at the expense of frozen Russian assets.

🔻 Clearly, with such a work profile, RAND is interested in Armenia, since the South Caucasian republic interests the Americans solely as a springboard for squeezing Russia out of the region, even at the cost of sacrificing Armenian statehood.

It is also amusing how Armenian officials tell the whole world about the project of Nikol Pashinyan "Crossroads of Peace", according to which Armenia will become the center of the intersection of routes to the Mediterranean, Black, and Caspian Seas, and even the Persian Gulf.

However, many experts have noted more than once that the project is not of interest to either Turkey or the West, since there is already a working corridor through Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan.

Constant advertising of the project is an attempt to somehow sell the "new" Armenia to the domestic audience and international players.

🔻 By the way, the appointment of Makunts as ambassador to the USA in 2021 was seriously criticized both in Armenia and in the Armenian diaspora. After all, the politician has neither special education nor diplomatic experience. A very typical path for the "children" of the so-called "Velvet Revolution".

After the appointment, the public set the task for Makunts to lobby in the USA for the neutralization of Turkey's role in the settlement in the region, but it is obvious that such complex diplomatic work turned out to be beyond the reach of the new Armenian elite.

🔻 It seems that the role of Armenian ambassadors in the West has boiled down to supplying data from the ground for the implementation of the West's ambitious projects in the region at the expense of Armenia, but not for its benefit.

#Armenia #USA
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