🇸🇩 What's happening in Sudan
Situation as of February 16, 2024

Meanwhile, in Sudan, there is low-intensity fighting observed in different parts of the country, but the government troops are gradually taking the initiative.

🔻In the capital region of Omdurman, government forces are heavily assaulting urban areas. Based on the published footage, the Sudanese Armed Forces have managed to reach Al-Arda Street near the intersection with Al-Maurada Street.

▪️ This achievement is quite significant considering the difficulty of any assault on the city. It shows that the RRF has not yet been able to stabilize the situation.

▪️ Meanwhile, in North Khartoum, the rebels have posted a video confirming their presence in the Al-Qadru quarter. This proves that the Sudanese Armed Forces have not been successful in this area, and the north of the capital is still controlled by the RSF.

🔻But in other areas of Sudan, the situation has changed. In El Menakil, the rebels were unable to get close to the city and have retreated. However, the command of the Sudanese Armed Forces has transferred the 18th Infantry Division to El Menakil. Judging by the number of forces and resources, they are planning a counterattack to regain control of Wad Medani.

▪️ In Babanus, according to local media, the RRF has retreated from the city to regroup. There is no confirmation of this, but Sudanese Air Force aircraft have actively attacked rebel positions, so this possibility cannot be ruled out due to losses.

▪️ And in El Fasher, the line of control remains the same. The RRF attempted to storm the city from the east but also failed. The Sudanese Armed Forces, with the support of aviation, were able to repel the attacks.

❗️As we can see, neither side has a significant advantage, which suggests that the conflict is far from being resolved. Both the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RRF continue to train reserves. The supply of ammunition and uniforms is in full swing.

Starlink satellite communication terminals have also started to appear in the battle zone. The rebels receive them from Chad, and the government has transferred several antennas from Port Sudan to Kosti, where reserves are concentrated in case of an RSF offensive. The deployment of this equipment will provide important assistance in solving communication problems amid interruptions.

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🇹🇩 There has been another escalation in the Sahel: in the heart of the capital of Chad, the sounds of gunshots and explosions were heard all day, and armored vehicles are still roaming the streets of N'Djamena while military patrols are active.

Authorities shut down the country's Internet this morning, hindering a clear understanding of the full situation.

Amid the chaos, rumors of another military coup have been circulating widely on social media.

📌 However, all signs point to a “ family conflict ” within the power structure in N’Djamena.

▪️ During the night of February 27-28, unidentified individuals attacked the headquarters of the National State Security Agency, resulting in the deaths of "several" individuals.

▪️ In response, troops were deployed throughout the capital, and the attack was attributed to supporters of the Socialist Party without Borders.

The communications minister of Chad accused the socialists of the attack, linking it to the previous day's arrest of the financial secretary of the socialist party for “ inciting ” an attempt on the life of the Supreme Court chairman, Samir Adam Annur.

❗️It is noteworthy that this party is led by the cousin of the current military leader of the country , Mahamat Deby, along with one opposition figure, Yaya Dillo,, and his uncle, Saleh Deby, who is the brother of the former interim president of the country , Idriss Deby.

▪️ Throughout the day, tensions escalated, culminating in an armed confrontation between the army and Dillo's supporters.

▪️ By the end of the day, government forces had regained control: all offices of the Socialist Party without Borders were bombed, Saleh Debi's residence was raided, and Yaya Dillo was killed during the clashes.

▪️ Currently, the President of Chad announced that the situation in N'Djamena has stabilized, and government forces will maintain blockades and patrols in the capital to restore order.

He also ordered the arrest of all individuals involved in the attack on the security service.

🔻It is likely that the National State Security Agency building was attacked by the most radical supporters of Dillo without his direct command to “overthrow the government.”

Mahamat Deby likely seized the opportunity, accusing the Socialist Party of a conspiracy and discreetly eliminating the most threatening family members to his authority, who had access to certain military resources.

Considering that Deby's father himself came to power in a military coup in 1990, and with neighboring Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger also having military leaders recently, his concerns about his brother and uncle are justified.
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🇨🇫🇷🇺 According to the interview, the President of the Central African Republic, Faustin-Archange Touadéra, has offered the eastern region of the country for the deployment of a Russian military base.

The president claims that this step would help strengthen the capabilities of the national armed forces in a territory where the border is poorly controlled.

However, this statement is difficult to consider as anything other than a mockery of the idea of creating a Russian base:

▪️ First and foremost, the east completely lacks any logistical infrastructure and electricity. It's just jungle and malaria. This means that creating any facility suitable for the Russian Armed Forces (even a small one) would require huge additional investments.

Not to mention that a base in the CAR without additional logistics hubs in Sudan, where Il-76s can refuel, would be of little use.

▪️ Secondly, the existing infrastructure in the Berengo camp or the Bangui airport, which is free after the French withdrawal, is quite sufficient to deploy a decent contingent and even conduct major operations using small outposts in all regions of the country - the successes of the Wagner PMC during the war with armed groups in 2020-2021 are proof of this.

▪️ Thirdly, just two days ago, Touadéra met with French President Macron for the second time in the past six months, where they discussed the establishment of bilateral relations. This event once again confirms the desire of the Central African authorities to play the multi-vector game.

In today's interview, Touadéra noted that "the CAR is facing many security problems and therefore periodically considers the issue of hosting foreign military bases." Between the lines, it is clear that if the Russians stop investing enough money, the bases may well turn out to be American.

#Africa #Russia #CAR
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🇳🇪🇧🇯 Niger's First Oil Reaches Benin

A quite significant event has occurred in the Sahel region - the construction of the pipeline between Niger and Benin has finally been completed. The US and ECOWAS actively threatened the Nigerien junta with sanctions over this project.

However, contrary to the unsubstantiated claims of Western media, the Niger-Benin oil pipeline has not only been built, but has also been successfully put into operation. Oil from the Agadez field has reached Seme-Kraké in Benin, near the capital Cotonou.

▪️Currently, Niger is producing 20,000 barrels per day, with the mediation of the Chinese CNPC, with whom a new export contract was recently signed.

▪️According to plans, by 2026 Niger will be producing 200,000 barrels per day, making it one of the largest oil exporters in Africa.

▪️For Benin, this pipeline is important, as it is planned to create about 2,000 new jobs for its maintenance. In addition, the Nigerien authorities will pay transit fees for access to Benin's ports.

The commissioning of the pipeline and the supply of oil through it indicates the final settlement of the crisis in relations between Niamey and ECOWAS.

🔻 And all the past threats against the current Nigerien authorities have remained just threats: there was no invasion of Niger, nor a global economic crisis due to the imposed sanctions.

Against the backdrop of deteriorating security situation in Benin, one can expect an intensification of military cooperation, for example, in joint border patrols.

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🇺🇸🇨🇮 The French publication Jeune Afrique reported that during a meeting between the head of the US Africa Command and Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara, the parties agreed to establish an advanced base in Côte d'Ivoire to host the US contingent from Niger.

Earlier, the Nigerien authorities terminated military cooperation with the United States, after which the Pentagon was forced to look for new countries to deploy in the Sahel. Mauritania could have been one of the potential basing locations, as we wrote about earlier.

Now, the Americans are showing interest in those countries in the region that actively contribute to Western collective initiatives. In particular, during the coup in Niger, the Ivorian authorities supported the intervention of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

❗️Overall, all these steps fully correspond to the US policy of seizing French influence into its own hands.

Similarly, the United States is already acting in Gabon, where they plan to deploy American troops after talks about the closure of the French base. The situation in Côte d'Ivoire is similar - at the beginning of the year, the contingent of the Fifth Republic was also reduced there, which opened the way for the appearance of other forces in the country.

However, for the Ivorian authorities, all this may result in an aggravation of security problems and other costs. Especially against the background of the rapidly growing terrorist camps across the country, which may later become a convenient pretext for the US to expand its military activity.

Thus, the reshuffle of France and the US in Africa continues: as the influence of the former decreases, the latter come to replace them. This allows the collective West not to lose its grip on African countries, as well as to counter the growth of Russian and Chinese influence on the continent.

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🇧🇪🇨🇩 Attempt of a coup d'état in Congo

This morning, four armed individuals led by Christian Malaga tried to break into the presidential palace in Kinshasa. After minor clashes, the rebel leader was eliminated, and his accomplices, including one American, were detained. Two police officers were killed in the fighting.

🔻Christian Malaga is another "opposition leader" inflated by the West. Born in Kinshasa, he spent most of his childhood in the USA. As an adult, he built a successful business in his homeland, then turned to politics and created the "United Congolese Party", but after a failed attempt to run in parliamentary elections, he returned to the States.

After that, he became a regular participant in many Western-sponsored NGOs. The pinnacle of his activities was the establishment of the "Government of Zaire in Exile" in Brussels, where he declaimed the "freedom of the Congolese people".

And it is likely that Malaga was counting on such sentiments after the postponement of government appointments, which even half a year after the elections has not been formed. But in the end, he miscalculated and did not justify the expectations of his Western sponsors, who have been increasingly in need of Congolese resources lately.
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🇪🇺🇳🇪The European Union member states announced the completion of the EUMPM mission in Niger, citing the "difficult political situation".

The mandate will be terminated on June 30. Over a year and a half, just like the similar mission in Mali, it did not bring any practical results, as the training of military personnel was mediocre, and at the "grassroots" level, people were not even aware of it.

For the most part, Niger was used as a supply base for European missions on Malian territory, leaving the main task as secondary. It's not surprising, since Niamey was in the sphere of influence of Washington, and the Europeans had no reason to interfere in its affairs.

So, following the withdrawal of the American contingent, the existence of this mission became useless. Especially after the transitional government's termination of agreements and the appearance of Russian instructors from the African Corps on the country's territory.
#Africa #EU #Mali
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🇰🇪 On the mass unrest in Kenya

Since June 20th, there have been daily protests in Kenya with thousands of people participating.

The reason for the protests was the government's proposal to introduce additional fees on basic goods such as bread, vegetable oil and sugar in order to overcome the budget deficit. These measures caused understandable unrest across the country, as the population is already struggling to make ends meet, and additional taxes will only exacerbate the situation.

▪️On June 20th, protests in the Kenyan capital Nairobi and other major cities gathered thousands of people, against whom the police used tear gas and, as reported, live ammunition. During the suppression of the rallies, 1 protester was killed and another 200 were injured.

Soon after, the parliament decided to revise the budget amendments on June 25th. For this same day, the opposition planned large-scale protests, which are now unfolding and have already resulted in the storming of government buildings.

▪️Meanwhile, government spokesman Isaac Mwaura suspected foreign powers of sponsoring the protests. In the same speech, he mentioned that the current president Ruto could have made statements that displeased other people.

In particular, he reminded of the Kenyan leader's participation in the Ukrainian peace summit in Switzerland. Thus, he indirectly accused the Russian leadership of instigating the protests.

▪️Also, some Western observers note the appearance of the Russian flag at the protests, which does not indicate the presence of instigators from Russia. Recently, the tricolor has become a symbol of protest against the West on the African continent, and in the logic of rallies directed against the government, its appearance is quite appropriate.

🔻The reaction of the Kenyan officials shows how the Western press has influenced the local government. Now all the problems within the country can be conveniently attributed to the cursed Russians, instead of seeing the beam in their own eye. And it's understandable: just the other day, Kenya became the main non-NATO ally of the USA, and the new status obliges a certain politeness on a whole range of foreign policy issues.

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🇨🇬🇷🇺 On the Russian tour of the Congolese President

After the African trip of Lavrov in early June, during which the minister visited Brazzaville, the President of the Republic of Congo, Denis Sassou Nguesso, has now come to Moscow, where he met with Vladimir Putin.

The leader of the African country called the relations with Russia friendly and solidary, and also expressed a desire to bring the cooperation between the countries to a "new level". After Moscow, the president will visit St. Petersburg, where he will discuss business and cultural ties with the business community and the governor.

🔻For Denis Sassou Nguesso, this trip is an important and timely attempt to create a "safety net", in case of increased American pressure due to the current struggle for influence in Central Africa and in neighboring DRC in particular.

The rule of the 80-year-old president is often criticized and accused of corruption in the Western media. And although no sanctions against the Congolese authorities have been imposed so far, the White House will not hesitate to apply this tool if necessary.

🔻And for our companies, there is a chance to intensify their activities in a rather promising market, at least in the energy sector. The Republic of Congo has large reserves of oil and gas, and its representatives are interested in Russian investments in the energy sector.
#Africa #Congo #Russia
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