Forwarded from DD Geopolitics
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Forwarded from Hamdy Arnous
Many thanks to the Russian and Serbian specialists who came to share their experience from SMO zone with the Syrian soldiers.
🇸🇾🤝🇷🇺🤝🇷🇸
🇸🇾🤝🇷🇺🤝🇷🇸
🇷🇺🇨🇳❌ 🇺🇸 Russia and China blocked a US draft resolution on Gaza in the UN Security Council, which did not include a demand for a ceasefire in the enclave.
Deputy Permanent Representative Polyanskiy referred to the document as "ordinary American deceit." According to the diplomat, it gave the green light to Israel's military operation in Rafah.
🔴 @DDGeopolitics
Deputy Permanent Representative Polyanskiy referred to the document as "ordinary American deceit." According to the diplomat, it gave the green light to Israel's military operation in Rafah.
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Forwarded from Russians With Attitude (Kirill)
The Ukrainian electrical grid, while very sturdy (even after three decades of theft & neglect -- one thing the Soviets really knew how to do is build solid infrastructure. That's the only reason why there are still non-collapsed bridges in Ukraine, Russian missiles or not), has at every moment of the war existed at the discretion of the Russian government. The limited air campaign that began in September 2022 did not target the actual energy generation capacities of Ukraine -- there were no systematic strikes against the turbine halls of Ukraine's largest power plants. These strikes were, instead, aimed at substations and the likes, affecting transmission and distribution.
The strike against the turbine hall of the Dnieper Hydroelectric Station is the first such strike (other than a Geran hit on, I think, TPP-5 in Kharkov oblast, which, however, didn't take out the turbine hall). The largest hydroelectric power station on the Dnieper river is now out of commission for the foreseeable future, likely until after the war.
At the moment, it is unclear whether this is the beginning of a systematic campaign to destroy Ukraine's capacity for energy generation, or a one-off retaliation for the murder of civilians in Belgorod by the Ukrainian military.
The main limitation for the de-electrification of Ukraine are humanitarian concerns, not Russian military capabilities. If the air campaign in late 2022 had targeted turbine halls instead of substations, a complete, semi-permanent blackout could have been achieved already back then. This would completely uproot the Ukrainian military effort and lead to a quick collapse that could be exploited by the Russian Armed Forces. However, the humanitarian concerns are significant -- no electricity means the deaths of thousands of civilians, no hospitals, no water, no heating, no logistics, widespread disease and starvation.
The so-called “international community” has largely considered the effects of destroying a country's “dual-use infrastructure” on civilian populations to be acceptable collateral damage in its military campaigns (e.g. in Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya). Russia likely is not in a position to conduct such a ruthless campaign, both for moral and practical reasons -- at least not if it would impact the Russian populations of Eastern and Southern Ukraine. As such, I don't think we will see a complete shutdown of electricity in Ukraine -- even though, to repeat myself, it is theoretically achievable at any time -- because the impact on cities that are populated by (pro-)Russians would be unacceptable. A limited series of strikes, aimed at straining logistics and forcing the Kiev regime to make uncomfortable choices, is, however, feasible.
The strike against the turbine hall of the Dnieper Hydroelectric Station is the first such strike (other than a Geran hit on, I think, TPP-5 in Kharkov oblast, which, however, didn't take out the turbine hall). The largest hydroelectric power station on the Dnieper river is now out of commission for the foreseeable future, likely until after the war.
At the moment, it is unclear whether this is the beginning of a systematic campaign to destroy Ukraine's capacity for energy generation, or a one-off retaliation for the murder of civilians in Belgorod by the Ukrainian military.
The main limitation for the de-electrification of Ukraine are humanitarian concerns, not Russian military capabilities. If the air campaign in late 2022 had targeted turbine halls instead of substations, a complete, semi-permanent blackout could have been achieved already back then. This would completely uproot the Ukrainian military effort and lead to a quick collapse that could be exploited by the Russian Armed Forces. However, the humanitarian concerns are significant -- no electricity means the deaths of thousands of civilians, no hospitals, no water, no heating, no logistics, widespread disease and starvation.
The so-called “international community” has largely considered the effects of destroying a country's “dual-use infrastructure” on civilian populations to be acceptable collateral damage in its military campaigns (e.g. in Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya). Russia likely is not in a position to conduct such a ruthless campaign, both for moral and practical reasons -- at least not if it would impact the Russian populations of Eastern and Southern Ukraine. As such, I don't think we will see a complete shutdown of electricity in Ukraine -- even though, to repeat myself, it is theoretically achievable at any time -- because the impact on cities that are populated by (pro-)Russians would be unacceptable. A limited series of strikes, aimed at straining logistics and forcing the Kiev regime to make uncomfortable choices, is, however, feasible.
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🇷🇺 Belgorod region, March 18
Russian soldiers and police protect a baby during a period of constant Ukrainian strikes until it is safe to move.
Via: @treugolniklpr
🔴 @DDGeopolitics
Russian soldiers and police protect a baby during a period of constant Ukrainian strikes until it is safe to move.
Via: @treugolniklpr
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Forwarded from База from Olga
‼️PHOTO FACT: With the onset of spring and warmer weather, the chips from Ukrainian washing machines started to flock home.
@BazaFromOlga
@BazaFromOlga
🇷🇺💥 🇺🇦 The Russian Armed Forces have launched a mass attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Part 1
The energy infrastructure has been a regular target for Russian forces, being hit by both missiles and kamikaze drones multiple times. However, tonight marks the first time since March 2023 that the Russian Armed Forces have carried out a comprehensive attack, resulting in significant damage to large and small energy facilities across Ukraine.
➡️ The first reports of strikes began coming in from the Ladizhynska Thermal Power Plant: several steam boilers were damaged by the strike, leading to a powerful fire that spread to the machinery compartment. Even if some boilers survived, it's unlikely the facility will operate fully anytime soon.
➡️ In the Odessa region:
The main strike hit the Usatovo 330 kV Substation — a fire erupted at the site, destroying two 330/110 kV autotransformers. While the substation can redistribute energy received from the Moldovan Thermal Power Plant and the South Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant to neighboring substations at 330 kV — Novoodessa and Adjalyk, they were also targeted: one of each of the 330/110 kV autotransformers was hit.
Currently, the total transformer capacity with self-generation is only a quarter of what it used to be — around 321.5 MW (out of 1447 MW). This is critically insufficient for Odessa.
➡️ Kharkov region:
The main strikes hit the Zalyutino 330 kV Substation and the Losevo 330 kV Substation - after last year's strikes, these substations worked as a single unit, and Ukrainian energy workers started using Losevo as an alternative/reserve transmission path for electricity:
At Zalyutino Substation, all three 330/110 kV autotransformers were destroyed by the strikes of two missiles. The switchgear was demolished. The substation can now only operate for transit electricity at 330 kV and 110 kV;
Losevo 330 kV Substation: struck by at least 4 missiles — at least two out of four 330/110 kV autotransformers were destroyed. The Auxiliary Power Unit building and high-voltage equipment suffered serious damage.
ℹ️ It's important to note that Zalyutino Substation plays a crucial role in the entire region's power system — it connects the Zmiyivska Thermal Power Plant and TEC-5 with the central part of Ukraine, both of which were also targeted today.
- Zmiyivska Thermal Power Plant: the strike hit the station's machinery hall. At least one turbine with a 215 MW generator is severely damaged.
- TEC-5: Strikes damaged machinery hall No.1, resulting in a significant fire and building damage. Two out of three turbines and a 300 MW generator are seriously damaged.
- Another target of today's Russian military missile attack was TEC-3 in Kharkov, where the distribution device at the 110 kV station and buildings on the premises were damaged by the impact of three missiles.
The city still lacks stable electricity supply, with heating and water shortages in some areas. Electric transport is not running, and there are difficulties with cell phone coverage and railway operations.
Via: @don_partizan
🔴 @DDGeopolitics
The energy infrastructure has been a regular target for Russian forces, being hit by both missiles and kamikaze drones multiple times. However, tonight marks the first time since March 2023 that the Russian Armed Forces have carried out a comprehensive attack, resulting in significant damage to large and small energy facilities across Ukraine.
The main strike hit the Usatovo 330 kV Substation — a fire erupted at the site, destroying two 330/110 kV autotransformers. While the substation can redistribute energy received from the Moldovan Thermal Power Plant and the South Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant to neighboring substations at 330 kV — Novoodessa and Adjalyk, they were also targeted: one of each of the 330/110 kV autotransformers was hit.
Currently, the total transformer capacity with self-generation is only a quarter of what it used to be — around 321.5 MW (out of 1447 MW). This is critically insufficient for Odessa.
The main strikes hit the Zalyutino 330 kV Substation and the Losevo 330 kV Substation - after last year's strikes, these substations worked as a single unit, and Ukrainian energy workers started using Losevo as an alternative/reserve transmission path for electricity:
At Zalyutino Substation, all three 330/110 kV autotransformers were destroyed by the strikes of two missiles. The switchgear was demolished. The substation can now only operate for transit electricity at 330 kV and 110 kV;
Losevo 330 kV Substation: struck by at least 4 missiles — at least two out of four 330/110 kV autotransformers were destroyed. The Auxiliary Power Unit building and high-voltage equipment suffered serious damage.
- Zmiyivska Thermal Power Plant: the strike hit the station's machinery hall. At least one turbine with a 215 MW generator is severely damaged.
- TEC-5: Strikes damaged machinery hall No.1, resulting in a significant fire and building damage. Two out of three turbines and a 300 MW generator are seriously damaged.
- Another target of today's Russian military missile attack was TEC-3 in Kharkov, where the distribution device at the 110 kV station and buildings on the premises were damaged by the impact of three missiles.
The city still lacks stable electricity supply, with heating and water shortages in some areas. Electric transport is not running, and there are difficulties with cell phone coverage and railway operations.
Via: @don_partizan
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DD Geopolitics
🇷🇺🇨🇳❌ 🇺🇸 Russia and China blocked a US draft resolution on Gaza in the UN Security Council, which did not include a demand for a ceasefire in the enclave. Deputy Permanent Representative Polyanskiy referred to the document as "ordinary American deceit." According…
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Forwarded from Kalibrated (Scott)
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Kh-35 missiles destroying a Ukrainian AD system, can’t make it out though.
DD Geopolitics
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🇷🇺🇺🇳 "A hypocritical spectacle by Washington, that does not pressure Israel." – Russian envoy to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, on why they vetoed the US's ceasefire resolution.
Nebenzya claimed the resolution was "increasingly politicized" and contained a "green light" for an "Israeli operation into Rafah".
Nowhere in the US's resolution text was the word 'ceasefire' even mentioned. To which Nebenzya accused Washington of "deliberately misleading the international community".
Nebenzya accused anyone voting in favor of "covering themselves in disgrace".
🔴 @DDGeopolitics
Nebenzya claimed the resolution was "increasingly politicized" and contained a "green light" for an "Israeli operation into Rafah".
Nowhere in the US's resolution text was the word 'ceasefire' even mentioned. To which Nebenzya accused Washington of "deliberately misleading the international community".
Nebenzya accused anyone voting in favor of "covering themselves in disgrace".
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Forwarded from InfoDefenseENGLISH
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"I am a subject of Hitler."
Users have spread a video featuring one of the participants of the Latvian SS Legionnaires' march, which took place in Riga.
If you want to be convinced that such things exist in the modern world, simply follow the link to the official Latvian YouTube channel, which shows how they honor the SS heroes.
📱 InfoDefenseENGLISH
📱 InfoDefense
Users have spread a video featuring one of the participants of the Latvian SS Legionnaires' march, which took place in Riga.
If you want to be convinced that such things exist in the modern world, simply follow the link to the official Latvian YouTube channel, which shows how they honor the SS heroes.
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🇷🇺🇺🇦🏁 Ukraine is inevitably moving towards military defeat, despite the assistance of the West - Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Nebenzya.
- The scale of NATO's involvement in supporting Kiev is much broader than Washington and Brussels are trying to present.
- The West urges Kiev to throw more and more Ukrainians into "meat grinders."
- There is ample evidence of direct involvement of NATO countries in the conflict in Ukraine.
- The West has sucked all the resources out of Ukraine and deprived its population of the right to a decent future.
- The irresponsible rhetoric of the West threatens to escalate the Ukrainian conflict into a new phase.
- Zelensky's decision not to hold elections in Ukraine makes him an illegitimate president from May 21st.
🔴 @DDGeopolitics
- The scale of NATO's involvement in supporting Kiev is much broader than Washington and Brussels are trying to present.
- The West urges Kiev to throw more and more Ukrainians into "meat grinders."
- There is ample evidence of direct involvement of NATO countries in the conflict in Ukraine.
- The West has sucked all the resources out of Ukraine and deprived its population of the right to a decent future.
- The irresponsible rhetoric of the West threatens to escalate the Ukrainian conflict into a new phase.
- Zelensky's decision not to hold elections in Ukraine makes him an illegitimate president from May 21st.
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The Gloves Are Off: Russia's Massive Response to the Shelling of Russian Border Towns
Mark Sleboda, a Moscow-based Military and Geopolitical Analyst, returns to the show. After a weekend of elections and Ukrainian PR stunts on the border, Russia responded with a two-day missile barrage targeting decision-making centers and energy infrastructure. Peskov used the term "war" for the first time. Are we witnessing a shift in the conflict? Will NATO get involved? And much more...
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Rumble
The Gloves Are Off: Russia's Massive Response to the Shelling of Russian Border Towns
Mark Sleboda, a Moscow-based Military and Geopolitical Analyst, returns to the show. After a weekend of elections and Ukrainian PR stunts on the border, Russia responded with a two-day missile barrage
Forwarded from Rise of the Global South
@RiseGS
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Forwarded from Rybar in English
🇬🇧🇭🇺🇷🇸 “The Dangerous Triangle”: Why British Experts Fear Serbia, Hungary, and Republika Srpska
The Royal Defense Studies Institute (RUSI) recently released a report on threats to stability in the Western Balkans. According to British think tank staff, the primary threat in the region arises from the “triangle” formed through cooperation between Serbia, Hungary, and Republika Srpska (the Serbian entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina).
“The three key politicians - Orban, Vučić, and Dodik - have established a close relationship within the triangle spanning Budapest, Belgrade, and Banja Luka. They share a similar authoritarian worldview and political trajectory. Their stances align on various issues, from dealings with Russia and China to hopes for the return of Donald Trump to the White House,” the authors of the report state.
Furthermore, the concern is not solely, or primarily, about the deepening ties between these nations but also about Russia's role in their alliance. They highlight a meeting between Milorad Dodik and Vladimir Putin at the end of February, during which the President of Republika Srpska expressed dissatisfaction with US and British sanctions. What particularly alarms experts is Dodik's pledge to obstruct Bosnia and Herzegovina's NATO accession, as well as his pride in his "excellent relationships with Vucic and Orban."
🔻In the latest article, we delve into the rationale behind RUSI's arguments and the genuine motives behind boosting Serbia's defense capabilities and fostering regional cooperation.
#Great Britain #Hungary #analysis #article #Serbia
@rybar
We hope you found our analysts' work engaging. Your support is greatly appreciated. (Here is a convenient link for payments via SBP). Original msg
The Royal Defense Studies Institute (RUSI) recently released a report on threats to stability in the Western Balkans. According to British think tank staff, the primary threat in the region arises from the “triangle” formed through cooperation between Serbia, Hungary, and Republika Srpska (the Serbian entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina).
“The three key politicians - Orban, Vučić, and Dodik - have established a close relationship within the triangle spanning Budapest, Belgrade, and Banja Luka. They share a similar authoritarian worldview and political trajectory. Their stances align on various issues, from dealings with Russia and China to hopes for the return of Donald Trump to the White House,” the authors of the report state.
Furthermore, the concern is not solely, or primarily, about the deepening ties between these nations but also about Russia's role in their alliance. They highlight a meeting between Milorad Dodik and Vladimir Putin at the end of February, during which the President of Republika Srpska expressed dissatisfaction with US and British sanctions. What particularly alarms experts is Dodik's pledge to obstruct Bosnia and Herzegovina's NATO accession, as well as his pride in his "excellent relationships with Vucic and Orban."
🔻In the latest article, we delve into the rationale behind RUSI's arguments and the genuine motives behind boosting Serbia's defense capabilities and fostering regional cooperation.
#Great Britain #Hungary #analysis #article #Serbia
@rybar
We hope you found our analysts' work engaging. Your support is greatly appreciated. (Here is a convenient link for payments via SBP). Original msg
Проект «Рыбарь»
«Опасный треугольник»: почему британские эксперты опасаются Сербии, Венгрии и Республики Сербской?