▪️ Unemployment rate (Sep)
FACT: 4.4%
FORECAST: 4.3%
PRE.: 4.3%
▪️ Change in the number of employees in the non-agricultural sector (Sep)
FACT: 119K
FORECAST: 53K
PREC.: -4K
▪️ Average hourly wage (compared to the same period last year) (y/y) (Sep)
FACT: 3.8%
FORECAST: 3.7%
PRECES.: 3.8%
▪️ Average hourly wage (m/m) (Sep)
FACT: 0.2%
FORECAST: 0.3%
PRE.: 0.4%
▪️ Number of primary applications for unemployment benefits
FACT: 220K
PREC.: 232K
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💥 FedWatch: Fed rate reduction in December is an unlikely scenario (chance = 39.6%).
The probability of a decrease in the interest rate in December increased slightly due to the increase in unemployment in the United States, the Nasdaq index added +2%.
But the Fed will most likely take a PAUSE at the upcoming meeting (December 10) due to the lack of macro data - the following reports on the labor market (Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment level) will be released after the decision on the rate (December 16).
@Сryptoz ₿
The probability of a decrease in the interest rate in December increased slightly due to the increase in unemployment in the United States, the Nasdaq index added +2%.
But the Fed will most likely take a PAUSE at the upcoming meeting (December 10) due to the lack of macro data - the following reports on the labor market (Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment level) will be released after the decision on the rate (December 16).
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The money from the sale of ETH was sent to buy back FG Nexus shares.
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On the positive sit, there is an increase in liquidity. Potential negative - if fiscal incentives lead to an increase in inflation, the Central Bank of Japan may strengthen control over bond yields or tighten monetary policy, which will provoke a global risk-off.
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Bitcoin has collapsed below $82,000 at the moment.
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➥ JPMorgan analysts believe that Strategy (Michael Sailor) may be excluded from the MSCI and Nasdaq indices.
➥ Such a scenario will lead to an outflow of up to $2,800,000,000 from the capitalization of #MSTR shares.
➥ Back in October, MSCI discussed the possibility of excluding companies from its indices where digital assets account for more than 50% of the balance sheet.
➥ MSTR shares are included in the MSCI World index from May 31, 2024. There is no official decision to exclude Strategy shares yet - it is expected by January 15, 2026.
➥ The Strategy growth model was built on the sale of shares, the purchase of Bitcoin and the growth of capitalization - now the «premium» has almost disappeared.
➥ The market value of the company has approached the value of its crypto assets, which indicates a decrease in investor confidence.
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➠ According to the classical theory of cycles, Bitcoin should roll back to $56,000, but such a scenario is unlikely because of large holders who are not inclined to sell.
➠ In terms of on-chain cycles, the bull market formally ended when BTC reached $100,000.
➠ The current zone looks reasonable for long-term accumulation of Bitcoin with a spot strategy.
➠ Macro conditions and the need to injest liquidity by the middle of next year can support the market and improve moods at any time (twitter)
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#onchain #Altcoins
😐 CryptoQuant: Now 60% of the trading volume on Binance is accounted for by altcoins.
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#onchain
😳 Glassnode: Short-term Bitcoin holders have collapsed the market - realized losses on BTC are comparable to the levels characteristic of the market collapse during the FTX collapse.
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Outflow from Ethereum ETF (#ETH) for yesterday = -$261,590,000.
JPMorgan: The correction of the cryptocurrency market is caused by Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF sales.
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The negative reaction arose after the news that Strategy and other companies holding large amounts of cryptocurrency on the balance sheet may be excluded from the main market indices.
If this happens, index funds will be forced to sell their shares, which may increase the pressure on the market.
Grant Cardone: «I withdrew $20m dollars from JPMorgan Chase and sued them.»
Max Kaiser:
«Crash JPMorgan, buy Strategy and BTC shares.»
Fred Krueger:
«The enemy has a name, and it’s a banking system.
Look at the JPM chart after the global financial crisis. It has only been going up for the last 15 years.
JPMorgan increased its influence as the head of the banking criminal syndicate under Obama, under Trump 1.0 and under Biden.
The Fed works on JPM.
They
hate
Bitcoin, DeFi and stablecoins. They were the ones who quietly designed Chokepoint 1.0 and 2.0. Now they see the vulnerability of Bitcoin and are tightening the screws for Strategy.»
❗️Meanwhile, JPMorgan closed the accounts of Jack Mullers, CEO Strike and 21 Capital, citing «alarming activity» and refusing to explain the details.
This again raises the threat of debanking crypto entrepreneurs, although Donald Trump’s decree formally prohibits such practices.
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#rumors
😯 Executive Vice President of Strategy Shao Wei-Ming has sold 58,004 MSTR shares for $13m in the last 10 days.
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#Calendar
⚡️ Calendar of key events for this week:
Monday, November 24:
- Nothing important
Tuesday, November 25:
🇺🇸 USA - ADP Nonfarm Employment - 16:15
🔥 USA - PPI Prominflation (Sep) - 16:30
Wednesday, November 26:
🔥 USA - GDP (3Q2025) - 16:30
🇺🇸 USA - Initial Jobless Claims - 16:30
🇺🇸 USA - Durable Goods Orders (Sep) - 16:30
🔥 USA - PCE Price index (Sep) - 18:00
🇺🇸 USA - Fed Beige Book - 22:00
Thursday, November 27:
🇺🇸USA - No bidding (Thanksgiving Day)
Friday, November 28:
🇺🇸USA - No bidding (Thanksgiving Day)
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Monday, November 24:
- Nothing important
Tuesday, November 25:
🇺🇸 USA - ADP Nonfarm Employment - 16:15
Wednesday, November 26:
🇺🇸 USA - Initial Jobless Claims - 16:30
🇺🇸 USA - Durable Goods Orders (Sep) - 16:30
🇺🇸 USA - Fed Beige Book - 22:00
Thursday, November 27:
🇺🇸USA - No bidding (Thanksgiving Day)
Friday, November 28:
🇺🇸USA - No bidding (Thanksgiving Day)
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$500,250,000 - outflow of funds from spot Ethereum ETF (#ETH) for the past week.
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#altcoins
🔥 Eric Balchunas: Within the next 6 days, 5 spot ETFs will be listed for altcoins.
➤ Today: Dogecoin ETF from Grayscale.
➤ Next: ETF on #XRP, #DOGE and #LINK from Grayscale, Bitwise and Franklin Templeton.
@Сryptoz ₿
➤ Today: Dogecoin ETF from Grayscale.
➤ Next: ETF on #XRP, #DOGE and #LINK from Grayscale, Bitwise and Franklin Templeton.
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Recently, there have been forecasts of the potential exclusion of Strategy from world indices. Apparently, the company did not succeed in attracting funds to buy BTC by selling shares.
There are still 649,870 BTC ($56.1b) on the balance sheet.
Michael Sailor: «Probably nothing» (a hint at the lack of purchases).
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