The market is looking heavy ngl. I wouldn't rule out a final shakeout, 10-20% avg. drop.

If it happens, it would still be a ''buy the dip'' opportunity.

Approximate targets for potential drop would be BTC $48k-50k, ETH around $2k.

Stay safe.

I'm not selling my positions, but hedging. Just in case.

#ALTCOINS update

The altcoins index (OTHERS) never gave the second and main bullish confirmation. Instead, it was strongly rejected from the resistance zone (dark zone), showing weakness. From here, we could see a last drop to the blue ''buy zone''.

No need to worry if this happens. In fact, it could present a great buying opportunity. We have to adapt to what the market gives us.

GM

The market bounced a bit yesterday but it's looking like a dead cat bounce (DCB) for now. Until we get clear bullish confirmations, the possibility of one last shakeout before altseason is still on the table. The plan remains the same: holding my altcoins bags but with a hedge position open, just in case.

Wishing you all a blessed weekend!

First move done.

Now we should see a local top formation around here and bearish continuation this week.

$ETH - HTF view

Ethereum has been ranging between $2,000 and $2,800 for two months. It appears to be an accumulation range. However, as mentioned in recent days, it is likely that we will see one final shakeout before an expansion, to $1,800-2,000 (the spring phase of the accumulation schematic).

If that potential shakeout occurs, altcoins should dump 20-40%. A ''capitulation candle'' similar to the Covid crash. Don't get scared if that happens. It would probably be one of the best buying opportunities in months.

GM

Expecting bearish acceleration soon.

The sooner this happens, the sooner the real altseason would begin.

GM!

Yesterday the market dumped, with BTC breaking below $60k.

Now the market is bouncing, but it is looking like a DCB again.

We should see bearish continuation soon.

Someone is dumping ETH hard right now.

It might be because they’re expecting some selling pressure from PlusToken, which holds 542k ETH ($1.3B). For more info: https://x.com/ErgoBTC/status/1844117289123410303

Also, there’s more potential supply from the U.S. Government, specifically from the Silk Road seized funds, which are 69,370 BTC ($4.37B).
Wallet: bc1qa5wkgaew2dkv56kfvj49j0av5nml45x9ek9hz6

I wouldn’t trust this bounce, tbh. Still looks like a dead cat bounce (DCB) into resistance. I'm keeping my hedge position open for now.

$BTC - HTF view

Bitcoin has been in a descending channel since March 2024, and it's currently sitting below a major resistance zone ($63k-$65k). As mentioned before, this bounce still looks like a DCB, and there's strong potential supply coming into the market soon, along with the escalating Middle East conflict.

The main support is around $48k-50k, which would match with $1.8k-2k for ETH. This could present a great buying opportunity for the entire market.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

No updates = no changes

I still don't trust this move up. Something feels off.

Don't FOMO here.

GM

Yesterday's PA was crazy. This is why I don't trust these kinds of pumps. They are mainly driven by perps and spoofing, with the intention of trapping people near resistance levels.

BTC has retraced most of the dump, but alts look weak after yesterday's P&D. It's a sign of preliminary supply. In my opinion, this could be the beginning of the final leg down (shakeout), with BTC potentially reaching $48k-50k and ETH $1.8k-2k. If the thesis is right, altcoins could dump between 25%-50% over the next few days, that's why I have a hedge position open.

Once again, don't panic if this happens. Just be ready for that scenario.

Not too much is changing, so I'm taking a few days off while the market decides on a clear direction. The plan remains the same.

Wishing you all a blessed Sunday.

Quick update:

As mentioned before, several factors could trigger a black swan event before the US election. This would cause a 35% avg. drop for altcoins, meaning that big caps could dump 25-35%, and low caps could dump 40-60%.

Once again, this would be a very last shakeout before a real altseason could begin. So if it happens, just be ready and don't get scared.

Stay safe.

Probabilities for this scenario have just increased.

I've sold some altcoins to reduce my exposure to the market, even if I was already covered with a hedge.

If this scenario doesn’t play out, there’s no issue in re-entering positions later. However, we can’t ignore the data—the market is showing significant weakness at this point.

This is how the altcoins market cap chart looks right now. Also:

-Elections uncertainty.

-Mt. Gox moving funds.

-Potential escalation of the Middle East conflict.

-Lots of liquidity below.

...

I'm completely out of the market. Better to be in ''wait and see'' mode for now.

GM!

Trump won the U.S. election, which I believe is positive for crypto in the mid to long term. However, I'm still being cautious before adding exposure to the market. The presidential inauguration ceremony isn't until January 20th, and there are still some risk factors in play, including potential sources of strong supply hitting the market. There's also the FOMC meeting today.

So, for now, I'm avoiding the euphoria and FOMO and just waiting.