预计厄尔尼诺现象至少持续到2024年4月
11月8日，日内瓦(WMO) -据世界气象组织的最新通报，当前的厄尔尼诺事件预计将至少持续到2024年4月，它将影响天气型态，并推动陆地和海洋温度进一步飙升。

截至2023年10月中，热带太平洋中东部海表温度等大气和海洋指标与厄尔尼诺（厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)的暖相）相一致。厄尔尼诺现象在2023年7至8月间得到了快速发展，到9月达到了中等强度，可能将在11月至2024年1月达峰，成为一个强烈事件。它有90%的可能性将持续整个即将到来的北半球冬季/南半球夏季。

https://ane4bf-datap1.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/wmocms/s3fs-public/ckeditor/files/Factsheet-ENSO-Update-October-2023-en.jpg?9I7OaQE6YxQrwKggxLrXxQ_5Reb6ajFW
根据历史型态和当前的长期预测，预计它将在即将到来的北半球春季逐渐减弱，这份《WMO厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜最新通报》指出。通报结合了来自世界各地的预测和专家指导。

厄尔尼诺现象平均每2至7年发生一次，通常持续9至12个月。它是一种自然发生的气候型态，与热带太平洋中部和东部的洋面升温相关。但它发生的背景是气候因人类活动而在变化。

“厄尔尼诺现象对全球气温的影响通常在其发生后的第二年（本次即2024年）显现。但由于自6月以来陆地和海面温度创下了新高，目前，2023年有望成为有记录以来最暖的年份。明年可能会更暖。这显然且毫无疑问是由人类活动产生的吸热温室气体浓度不断升高所推动的，”WMO秘书长佩特里·塔拉斯教授说。

“热浪、干旱、野火、暴雨和洪水等极端事件将在一些区域加剧，并产生重大影响。正因如此，WMO致力于“全民预警”倡议，以拯救生命、尽量减少经济损失，”塔拉斯教授说。

因受异常强烈的厄尔尼诺现象和气候变化的“双重重击”，此前有记录以来的最热年份是2016年。

自2023年5月以来，赤道太平洋中东部的月均海表温度距平已显著升高，从比2023年5月的均值高出约0.5°C上升到了比2023年9月的均值高出约1.5°C。这些估值对应的是1991-2020年基线期，采用了最新版的“最佳内插海面温度 (OISST)”数据集。

据最新预报和专家评估，赤道太平洋中东部至少在未来四个有重叠的三个月季节(2024年11月至1月、12月至2月、1月至3月和2月至4月)极有可能持续变暖。

强厄尔尼诺现象并不一定对局地产生强烈的厄尔尼诺影响。重要的是：厄尔尼诺现象并不是驱动全球和区域气候型态的唯一因素，厄尔尼诺指标的数值并不直接对应于其影响的大小。没有两次厄尔尼诺事件是相同的。

全球季节性气候最新通报

鉴于ENSO不是地球气候系统的唯一驱动因素，WMO还定期发布《全球季节性气候最新通报》（GSCU），其中纳入了北大西洋涛动、北极涛动和印度洋偶极子等其他主要气候变率模态的影响。

https://ane4bf-datap1.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/wmocms/s3fs-public/ckeditor/files/Picture1_50.png?TpT6qNCDNzeC0ms.aPRsB9F67KcLtQGX

2023年11月至2024年1月地表气温和降水量的概率预报。基线期为1993 - 2009年

“据普遍的预测，几乎所有陆地地区的温度都将高于正常值，这与赤道太平洋中部和东部厄尔尼诺现象的发展以及对全球大部分海域海面温度高于正常值的预测相吻合。北半球温度高于正常值的概率升值最大的地区一般预计在北纬40°以南和北纬65°以北地区。南半球大部分地区温度高于正常水平的概率也有所增加。”11-12-1月的GSCU称。

对未来三个月降雨量的预测值与厄尔尼诺现象的许多典型影响相似，包括大非洲之角(雨季剩余时间)、南美洲巴拉那/拉普拉塔盆地、北美洲东南部、中亚和东亚部分地区以及太平洋赤道沿线和赤道以北狭长地带的降雨量都将高于正常水平。预计南美洲北部大部分地区、澳大利亚大部分地区、海洋大陆(印度尼西亚、婆罗洲、巴布亚新几内亚和菲律宾群岛的大部分地区)以及约北纬30°以南和紧贴湿带以北的太平洋岛屿的降雨量将低于正常水平。

WMO的最新通报依托WMO全球长期预报制作中心的预报，可用于支持各政府、联合国、决策者和气候敏感部门的利益相关方，以动员备灾、保护生命和生计。

关于厄尔尼诺现象（和其他要素）对温度和降水影响的详细解析，将通过区域一级的WMO区域气候中心以及国家和地方一级的国家气象水文部门(NMHS)提供。
世界气象组织是联合国系统关于天气、气候和水的权威机构

www.wmo.int
欲获更多信息，请联系：

Clare Nullis，WMO媒体官，[email protected]或[email protected]，电话：+41-79-7091397
Language
Chinese, Simplified

Featured Media

Sunset

Type of news

Press Release

Publish Date

Wednesday, November 8, 2023 - 08:45

Tags

El Niño / La Niña

Press Release Number

08112023

Headline
厄尔尼诺现象预计将助长进一步升温

影响将持续到2024年

它将加剧热浪、洪水和干旱等极端天气和气候事件

"全民预警”在拯救生命
Editorial Section

CPA

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