RT @erwingoor: We closed day 2 at the EU booth on #GEOWeek2023 with the European community and friends. Thanks for contributing to the #EuroGEO collaborative spirit.
EU green research
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Day two at the #GEOWeek2023, with a rich programme at our EU Booth in the exhibition. See you there! - Erwin Goor EU green research
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#DYK migratory waterbirds are key biological indicators of the state of the environments we depend on 🦆 🦉 🌿
The ecosystems they depend on need to be protected 🦅 Learn more about our work supporting and protecting their flyways ➡️ eu1.hubs.ly/H063w3b0
UNEP-WCMC
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The ecosystems they depend on need to be protected 🦅 Learn more about our work supporting and protecting their flyways ➡️ eu1.hubs.ly/H063w3b0
UNEP-WCMC
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UNEP-WCMC
Nations flock together to commit to strengthening 'flyway conservation' for migratory waterbirds - UNEP-WCMC
The Eighth Meeting of the Parties (MOP8) to the Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds (AEWA) concluded on September 30 in Budapest, Hungary, with the successful adoption of 16 resolutions and new guidelines aimed to improve…
RT @WBHoekstra: Very good to meet with President @WilliamsRuto again, now to conclude my visit to Kenya.
The partnership and friendship between 🇰🇪 & 🇪🇺 stretches to many areas, including climate. A true leader, the president is lifting his country and the wider region to high climate ambition.
EU Climate Action
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The partnership and friendship between 🇰🇪 & 🇪🇺 stretches to many areas, including climate. A true leader, the president is lifting his country and the wider region to high climate ambition.
EU Climate Action
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RT @ScottDuncanWX: Earth just recorded its hottest October on record.
2023 is well on track to be the hottest year globally on record.
Greta Thunberg
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2023 is well on track to be the hottest year globally on record.
Greta Thunberg
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Before & After #EO version
This is what the Upsala Glacier looked like on:
⬅️ 27 January 1985
➡️ 26 February 2021
Can you believe the glacier retreated about 9 km between these two images?
Many glaciers in the Patagonian Ice Field, including Upsala, have been retreating over the last 50 years owing to rising temperatures.
Satellite data can help monitor changes in glacier mass and, subsequently, their contribution to rising sea levels.
🎞️ esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Image…
ESA Earth Observation
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This is what the Upsala Glacier looked like on:
⬅️ 27 January 1985
➡️ 26 February 2021
Can you believe the glacier retreated about 9 km between these two images?
Many glaciers in the Patagonian Ice Field, including Upsala, have been retreating over the last 50 years owing to rising temperatures.
Satellite data can help monitor changes in glacier mass and, subsequently, their contribution to rising sea levels.
🎞️ esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Image…
ESA Earth Observation
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RT @CECweb: 🔥 Imagine a summer without #fireflies
🌎 Like many other beloved #pollinators, fireflies are in trouble, threatened by habitat destruction, light pollution and pesticide use.
💚 Let’s look after our fireflies.
🔗Join the #PeopleForPollinators movement: cec.org/people-for-pollinato…
ipbes
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🌎 Like many other beloved #pollinators, fireflies are in trouble, threatened by habitat destruction, light pollution and pesticide use.
💚 Let’s look after our fireflies.
🔗Join the #PeopleForPollinators movement: cec.org/people-for-pollinato…
ipbes
Climate Change Science on Telegram by @ClimateChangeScience
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How can we enable and mobilize the private sector for sustainable development?
On Nov 13, learn how #PPPs can bring greater efficiency, sustainability, and innovative ideas from the private sector to development projects.
Register now: wrld.bg/7CqQ50Q5k8K
World Bank Climate
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On Nov 13, learn how #PPPs can bring greater efficiency, sustainability, and innovative ideas from the private sector to development projects.
Register now: wrld.bg/7CqQ50Q5k8K
World Bank Climate
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Shocking news: In 20 years, global plastic waste doubled 😧
And who is the most affected? Those who contributed the least.
Governments, champion a robust #GlobalPlasticsTreaty for people and the planet.
Help us make it happen: BanIt.org #INC3
WWF
Climate Change Science on Telegram by @ClimateChangeScience
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And who is the most affected? Those who contributed the least.
Governments, champion a robust #GlobalPlasticsTreaty for people and the planet.
Help us make it happen: BanIt.org #INC3
WWF
Climate Change Science on Telegram by @ClimateChangeScience
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In forested #wetlands, up to 95% of #carbon is stored in deep soils & #deforestation can release large amounts of #CO2.
Preserving this habitat is key to mitigating the effects of #climatechange. bit.ly/dMInfoposterMangroves
Via @dataMares
UN Biodiversity
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Preserving this habitat is key to mitigating the effects of #climatechange. bit.ly/dMInfoposterMangroves
Via @dataMares
UN Biodiversity
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Improve your ability to initiate and analyse opportunities for #NatureBasedSolutions
Course Format: Self-paced e-learning + 6 live sessions online (with NbS experts)
Duration: 6 weeks
🖥️ Registration: OPEN
📆 Start date: 23rd January 2024
ENROL NOW👉 bit.ly/3FF9v1L
IUCN
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Course Format: Self-paced e-learning + 6 live sessions online (with NbS experts)
Duration: 6 weeks
🖥️ Registration: OPEN
📆 Start date: 23rd January 2024
ENROL NOW👉 bit.ly/3FF9v1L
IUCN
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The first international summit dedicated to glaciers and poles - #OnePlanetPolarSummit - is this week, 8-10 Nov, in Paris, France.
Programme and live stream via the link. oneplanetsummit2023.site.cal…
World Meteorological Organization
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Programme and live stream via the link. oneplanetsummit2023.site.cal…
World Meteorological Organization
Climate Change Science on Telegram by @ClimateChangeScience
A @grttme project - Other backups: @Hallotme
RT @GreenpeaceCzech: BREAKING: We renamed @MZeCr to "Ministry of Logging in Old Forests". We compiled clear evidence that old-growth forests in 🇨🇿 lack proper protection and the wood from them is being sold as firewood or processed to create paper. That is unacceptable! @EU_Commission
Greenpeace International
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Greenpeace International
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Climate Change Science on Telegram by GRT: World Meteorological Organization / NASA / IPCC / ONU / OOH / UN United Nations etc.
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El Niño expected to last at least until April 2024
Geneva, 8 November (WMO) - The ongoing El Niño event is expected to last at least until April 2024, influencing weather patterns and contributing to a further spike in temperatures both on land and in the ocean, according to a new Update from the World Meteorological Organization.
As of mid-October 2023, sea surface temperatures and other atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the central-eastern tropical Pacific are consistent with El Niño, the warm phase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The El Niño developed rapidly during July-August, and reached moderate strength by September, 2023 and is likely to peak as a strong event in November - January 2024. There is a 90% likelihood it will persist throughout the upcoming northern hemisphere winter/southern hemisphere summer.
https://ane4bf-datap1.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/wmocms/s3fs-public/ckeditor/files/Factsheet-ENSO-Update-October-2023-en.jpg?9I7OaQE6YxQrwKggxLrXxQ_5Reb6ajFW Based on historical patterns and current long-range predictions, it is anticipated it will gradually diminish during the forthcoming boreal spring, says the WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, which combines forecasts and expert guidance from around the world.
El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and typically last nine to 12 months. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. But it takes place in the context of a climate being changed by human activities.
« El Niño impacts on global temperature typically play out in the year after its development, in this case in 2024. But as a result of record high land and sea-surface temperatures since June, the year 2023 is now on track to be the warmest year on record. Next year may be even warmer. This is clearly and unequivocally due to the contribution of the increasing concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases from human activities,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.
“Extreme events such as heatwaves, drought, wildfires, heavy rain and floods will be enhanced in some regions, with major impacts. That is why WMO is committed to the Early Warnings For All initiative to save lives and minimize economic losses,” said Prof. Taalas.
The previous warmest year on record was 2016 due to a “double whammy” of an exceptionally strong El Niño and climate change.
Since May 2023, monthly average sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have warmed significantly, rising from about 0.5 °C above average in May, 2023) to around 1.5 °C above average in September, 2023. These estimates are relative to the 1991-2020 baseline period, using the latest version of the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) dataset.
The most recent forecasts and expert assessment suggest a high likelihood of continued warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific for at least the next four overlapping 3-month seasons: November-January, December-February, January-March, and February-April 2024.
A strong El Niño does not necessarily mean strong El Niño impacts locally. It is important to note that El Niño is not the only factor that drives global and regional climate patterns, and that the magnitudes of El Niño indicators do not directly correspond to the magnitudes of their effects. No two El Niño events are alike.
Global Seasonal Climate Update
Given that ENSO is not the only driver of the Earth’s climate system, WMO also issues regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU), which incorporate influences of the other major climate variability modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.
https://ane4bf-datap1[...]
Geneva, 8 November (WMO) - The ongoing El Niño event is expected to last at least until April 2024, influencing weather patterns and contributing to a further spike in temperatures both on land and in the ocean, according to a new Update from the World Meteorological Organization.
As of mid-October 2023, sea surface temperatures and other atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the central-eastern tropical Pacific are consistent with El Niño, the warm phase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The El Niño developed rapidly during July-August, and reached moderate strength by September, 2023 and is likely to peak as a strong event in November - January 2024. There is a 90% likelihood it will persist throughout the upcoming northern hemisphere winter/southern hemisphere summer.
https://ane4bf-datap1.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/wmocms/s3fs-public/ckeditor/files/Factsheet-ENSO-Update-October-2023-en.jpg?9I7OaQE6YxQrwKggxLrXxQ_5Reb6ajFW Based on historical patterns and current long-range predictions, it is anticipated it will gradually diminish during the forthcoming boreal spring, says the WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, which combines forecasts and expert guidance from around the world.
El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and typically last nine to 12 months. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. But it takes place in the context of a climate being changed by human activities.
« El Niño impacts on global temperature typically play out in the year after its development, in this case in 2024. But as a result of record high land and sea-surface temperatures since June, the year 2023 is now on track to be the warmest year on record. Next year may be even warmer. This is clearly and unequivocally due to the contribution of the increasing concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases from human activities,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.
“Extreme events such as heatwaves, drought, wildfires, heavy rain and floods will be enhanced in some regions, with major impacts. That is why WMO is committed to the Early Warnings For All initiative to save lives and minimize economic losses,” said Prof. Taalas.
The previous warmest year on record was 2016 due to a “double whammy” of an exceptionally strong El Niño and climate change.
Since May 2023, monthly average sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have warmed significantly, rising from about 0.5 °C above average in May, 2023) to around 1.5 °C above average in September, 2023. These estimates are relative to the 1991-2020 baseline period, using the latest version of the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) dataset.
The most recent forecasts and expert assessment suggest a high likelihood of continued warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific for at least the next four overlapping 3-month seasons: November-January, December-February, January-March, and February-April 2024.
A strong El Niño does not necessarily mean strong El Niño impacts locally. It is important to note that El Niño is not the only factor that drives global and regional climate patterns, and that the magnitudes of El Niño indicators do not directly correspond to the magnitudes of their effects. No two El Niño events are alike.
Global Seasonal Climate Update
Given that ENSO is not the only driver of the Earth’s climate system, WMO also issues regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU), which incorporate influences of the other major climate variability modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.
https://ane4bf-datap1[...]
Climate Change Science on Telegram by GRT: World Meteorological Organization / NASA / IPCC / ONU / OOH / UN United Nations etc.
El Niño expected to last at least until April 2024 Geneva, 8 November (WMO) - The ongoing El Niño event is expected to last at least until April 2024, influencing weather patterns and contributing to a further spike in temperatures both on land and in the…
.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/wmocms/s3fs-public/ckeditor/files/Picture1_50.png?TpT6qNCDNzeC0ms.aPRsB9F67KcLtQGX
Probabilistic forecasts of surface air temperature and precipitation for the season November-January 2023-24. The baseline period is 1993–2009
“Consistent with the development of an El Niño in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, together with the prediction of above-normal sea-surface temperatures over much of the global oceans, there is widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas. The largest increase in probabilities for above-normal temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere is predicted generally south of about 40°N and in the regions north of 65°N. There are also enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperatures over most of the Southern Hemisphere.” says the GSCU for November-December-January.
Predictions for rainfall in the forthcoming three months are similar to many of the typical impacts of El Niño, including above-normal rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa (for the remainder of the rainfall season), in Parana/La Plata basin in South America, in Southeast North America, in parts of central and eastern Asia and in a narrow band along and just north of the equator in the Pacific. Below-normal rainfall is predicted in most of northern South America, over much of Australia, in the Maritime continent (most of Indonesia, Borneo, Papua New Guinea and the Philippine Islands) and in the Pacific Ocean islands south of about 30°N, and immediately to the north of the wet band.
The WMO Updates are based on WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts and are available to support governments, the United Nations, decision-makers and stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors to mobilize preparations and protect lives and livelihoods.
More detailed interpretations of the implications of El Niño (and other factors) impacts on temperature and precipitation will be made available through the WMO Regional Climate Centres at regional level, and by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) at national and local level.
The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations System’s authoritative voice on Weather, Climate and Water
www.wmo.int
For further information contact:
Clare Nullis, WMO media officer, [email protected] or [email protected] , Tel +41-79-7091397
Language
English
Featured Media
Sunset
Type of news
Press Release
Publish Date
Wednesday, November 8, 2023 - 08:45
Tags
El Niño / La Niña
Press Release Number
08112023
Headline
El Niño is expected to fuel further temperature increases
Impacts will continue into 2024
It will exacerbate extreme weather and climate-events, like heatwaves, floods and droughts
Early Warnings for All save lives
Editorial Section
CPA
Contact
MDebray
Climate Change Science on Telegram by @ClimateChangeScience
A @grttme project - Other backups: @Hallotme
Probabilistic forecasts of surface air temperature and precipitation for the season November-January 2023-24. The baseline period is 1993–2009
“Consistent with the development of an El Niño in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, together with the prediction of above-normal sea-surface temperatures over much of the global oceans, there is widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas. The largest increase in probabilities for above-normal temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere is predicted generally south of about 40°N and in the regions north of 65°N. There are also enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperatures over most of the Southern Hemisphere.” says the GSCU for November-December-January.
Predictions for rainfall in the forthcoming three months are similar to many of the typical impacts of El Niño, including above-normal rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa (for the remainder of the rainfall season), in Parana/La Plata basin in South America, in Southeast North America, in parts of central and eastern Asia and in a narrow band along and just north of the equator in the Pacific. Below-normal rainfall is predicted in most of northern South America, over much of Australia, in the Maritime continent (most of Indonesia, Borneo, Papua New Guinea and the Philippine Islands) and in the Pacific Ocean islands south of about 30°N, and immediately to the north of the wet band.
The WMO Updates are based on WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts and are available to support governments, the United Nations, decision-makers and stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors to mobilize preparations and protect lives and livelihoods.
More detailed interpretations of the implications of El Niño (and other factors) impacts on temperature and precipitation will be made available through the WMO Regional Climate Centres at regional level, and by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) at national and local level.
The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations System’s authoritative voice on Weather, Climate and Water
www.wmo.int
For further information contact:
Clare Nullis, WMO media officer, [email protected] or [email protected] , Tel +41-79-7091397
Language
English
Featured Media
Sunset
Type of news
Press Release
Publish Date
Wednesday, November 8, 2023 - 08:45
Tags
El Niño / La Niña
Press Release Number
08112023
Headline
El Niño is expected to fuel further temperature increases
Impacts will continue into 2024
It will exacerbate extreme weather and climate-events, like heatwaves, floods and droughts
Early Warnings for All save lives
Editorial Section
CPA
Contact
MDebray
Climate Change Science on Telegram by @ClimateChangeScience
A @grttme project - Other backups: @Hallotme
Climate Change Science on Telegram by GRT: World Meteorological Organization / NASA / IPCC / ONU / OOH / UN United Nations etc.
Photo
El Niño devrait durer au moins jusqu’en avril 2024
Genève, le 8 novembre (OMM) – Selon le nouveau Bulletin Info-Niño/Niña publié par l’Organisation météorologique mondiale (OMM), le phénomène El Niño devrait durer au moins jusqu’en avril 2024, une situation qui influencera les conditions météorologiques et contribuera à une nouvelle hausse des températures tant sur les terres émergées que dans les océans.
Depuis la mi-octobre 2023, les températures de surface de la mer et d’autres indicateurs océaniques et atmosphériques du centre-est du Pacifique tropical présentent des valeurs caractéristiques d’un épisode El Niño, la phase chaude du phénomène El Niño-oscillation australe (ENSO). El Niño s’est développé rapidement en juillet-août et a atteint une intensité modérée en septembre 2023. Il devrait atteindre une forte intensité à son apogée, entre novembre 2023 et janvier 2024. Il est probable à 90 % que cet épisode se poursuive tout au long de l’hiver boréal/été austral.
https://ane4bf-datap1.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/wmocms/s3fs-public/ckeditor/files/Factsheet-ENSO-Update-October-2023-fr.pdf.jpg?TCMrxkelR6OjzQsrV5L1z.zZ8MYuJ29Q Compte tenu de l’évolution d’épisodes passés ainsi que des prévisions à long terme actuelles, El Niño devrait s’affaiblir progressivement au printemps boréal 2024 selon le Bulletin Info-Niño/Niña de l’OMM, qui se fonde sur des prévisions et évaluations d’experts du monde entier.
Le phénomène El Niño se produit en moyenne tous les deux à sept ans et dure en général entre 9 et 12 mois. Il s’agit d’un phénomène climatique naturel caractérisé par un réchauffement des eaux de surface dans le centre et l’est du Pacifique tropical. Il est à noter qu’il a lieu à présent dans un contexte de modification du climat par les activités humaines.
«Les effets d’El Niño sur la température mondiale se manifestent généralement dans l’année qui suit son apparition, en l’occurrence en 2024. Toutefois, en raison des records de chaleur enregistrés à la surface du globe (terres émergées et océans confondus) depuis le mois de juin, 2023 est désormais en passe de devenir l’année la plus chaude jamais observée. L’année prochaine pourrait être encore plus chaude. Cette situation est incontestablement due au rôle que jouent les activités humaines dans l’augmentation des concentrations de gaz à effet de serre, lesquels retiennent la chaleur», a déclaré le Secrétaire général de l’OMM, M. Petteri Taalas.
«Les phénomènes extrêmes tels que les vagues de chaleur, les sécheresses, les feux de forêt, les fortes pluies et les inondations s’accentueront dans certaines régions et auront de lourdes conséquences. Voilà pourquoi l’OMM a à cœur de mettre en œuvre l’Initiative en faveur d’alertes précoces pour tous, afin de sauver des vies et de réduire au minimum les pertes économiques», a expliqué M. Taalas.
L’année 2016 a été la précédente année la plus chaude jamais enregistrée, sous l’effet d’un épisode El Niño exceptionnellement puissant et du changement climatique.
Ces derniers mois, les températures moyennes mensuelles de surface dans le centre-est du Pacifique équatorial ont beaucoup augmenté, passant de près de 0,5 °C au-dessus de la moyenne en mai 2023 à environ 1,5 °C au-dessus de celle-ci en septembre 2023. Ces estimations sont relatives à la période 1991-2020 et fondées sur la dernière version en date du jeu de données OISST (Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature).
Selon les prévisions et évaluations d’experts les plus récentes, il est très probable que ce réchauffement se poursuive dans le centre-est du Pacifique équatorial pendant au moins les quatre prochaines périodes trimestrielles qui se chevauchent (novembre 2023‑janvier 2024, décembre 2023-février 2024, janvier-mars 2024 et février-avril 2024).
La forte intensité d’un épisode ENSO ne se traduit pas nécessairement par de fortes incidences au plan local. Il convient de souligner que le phénomène El Niño n’est pas le seul facteur qui détermine les régimes climatiques à l’échelle régiona[...]
Genève, le 8 novembre (OMM) – Selon le nouveau Bulletin Info-Niño/Niña publié par l’Organisation météorologique mondiale (OMM), le phénomène El Niño devrait durer au moins jusqu’en avril 2024, une situation qui influencera les conditions météorologiques et contribuera à une nouvelle hausse des températures tant sur les terres émergées que dans les océans.
Depuis la mi-octobre 2023, les températures de surface de la mer et d’autres indicateurs océaniques et atmosphériques du centre-est du Pacifique tropical présentent des valeurs caractéristiques d’un épisode El Niño, la phase chaude du phénomène El Niño-oscillation australe (ENSO). El Niño s’est développé rapidement en juillet-août et a atteint une intensité modérée en septembre 2023. Il devrait atteindre une forte intensité à son apogée, entre novembre 2023 et janvier 2024. Il est probable à 90 % que cet épisode se poursuive tout au long de l’hiver boréal/été austral.
https://ane4bf-datap1.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/wmocms/s3fs-public/ckeditor/files/Factsheet-ENSO-Update-October-2023-fr.pdf.jpg?TCMrxkelR6OjzQsrV5L1z.zZ8MYuJ29Q Compte tenu de l’évolution d’épisodes passés ainsi que des prévisions à long terme actuelles, El Niño devrait s’affaiblir progressivement au printemps boréal 2024 selon le Bulletin Info-Niño/Niña de l’OMM, qui se fonde sur des prévisions et évaluations d’experts du monde entier.
Le phénomène El Niño se produit en moyenne tous les deux à sept ans et dure en général entre 9 et 12 mois. Il s’agit d’un phénomène climatique naturel caractérisé par un réchauffement des eaux de surface dans le centre et l’est du Pacifique tropical. Il est à noter qu’il a lieu à présent dans un contexte de modification du climat par les activités humaines.
«Les effets d’El Niño sur la température mondiale se manifestent généralement dans l’année qui suit son apparition, en l’occurrence en 2024. Toutefois, en raison des records de chaleur enregistrés à la surface du globe (terres émergées et océans confondus) depuis le mois de juin, 2023 est désormais en passe de devenir l’année la plus chaude jamais observée. L’année prochaine pourrait être encore plus chaude. Cette situation est incontestablement due au rôle que jouent les activités humaines dans l’augmentation des concentrations de gaz à effet de serre, lesquels retiennent la chaleur», a déclaré le Secrétaire général de l’OMM, M. Petteri Taalas.
«Les phénomènes extrêmes tels que les vagues de chaleur, les sécheresses, les feux de forêt, les fortes pluies et les inondations s’accentueront dans certaines régions et auront de lourdes conséquences. Voilà pourquoi l’OMM a à cœur de mettre en œuvre l’Initiative en faveur d’alertes précoces pour tous, afin de sauver des vies et de réduire au minimum les pertes économiques», a expliqué M. Taalas.
L’année 2016 a été la précédente année la plus chaude jamais enregistrée, sous l’effet d’un épisode El Niño exceptionnellement puissant et du changement climatique.
Ces derniers mois, les températures moyennes mensuelles de surface dans le centre-est du Pacifique équatorial ont beaucoup augmenté, passant de près de 0,5 °C au-dessus de la moyenne en mai 2023 à environ 1,5 °C au-dessus de celle-ci en septembre 2023. Ces estimations sont relatives à la période 1991-2020 et fondées sur la dernière version en date du jeu de données OISST (Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature).
Selon les prévisions et évaluations d’experts les plus récentes, il est très probable que ce réchauffement se poursuive dans le centre-est du Pacifique équatorial pendant au moins les quatre prochaines périodes trimestrielles qui se chevauchent (novembre 2023‑janvier 2024, décembre 2023-février 2024, janvier-mars 2024 et février-avril 2024).
La forte intensité d’un épisode ENSO ne se traduit pas nécessairement par de fortes incidences au plan local. Il convient de souligner que le phénomène El Niño n’est pas le seul facteur qui détermine les régimes climatiques à l’échelle régiona[...]