Gartner Hype Cycle -vs- Reality
Legit productivity tech that’s locked into the legit path and creating real value essentially never experiences an severe Gartner-shaped adoption or financing crash.
What does?
Legit fields that get subverted and redirected onto a different scam, non-value-creating path.
E.g. Earlier AI waves, that got redirected from the legit Connectionist path, onto the scammy pure-Symbolic path — something that never got to the point of creating real AI value for companies.
E.g. Current crypto, that got redirected from the path of 100% identity-irrelevant trustworthiness with 0% reputation-based trust, to 100% identity and reputation based Worldcoin scams. Some portion creating legit value for criminal organizations, but not big enough of a portion.
Gartner-like cycles happen when legit fields get redirected into pure scam territory.
AI? It’s finally gotten on the legit, actual value-creating path. Point of no return.
Welcome to the last AI summer, the summer that never ends, like electricity, phone, email.
Legit productivity tech that’s locked into the legit path and creating real value essentially never experiences an severe Gartner-shaped adoption or financing crash.
What does?
Legit fields that get subverted and redirected onto a different scam, non-value-creating path.
E.g. Earlier AI waves, that got redirected from the legit Connectionist path, onto the scammy pure-Symbolic path — something that never got to the point of creating real AI value for companies.
E.g. Current crypto, that got redirected from the path of 100% identity-irrelevant trustworthiness with 0% reputation-based trust, to 100% identity and reputation based Worldcoin scams. Some portion creating legit value for criminal organizations, but not big enough of a portion.
Gartner-like cycles happen when legit fields get redirected into pure scam territory.
AI? It’s finally gotten on the legit, actual value-creating path. Point of no return.
Welcome to the last AI summer, the summer that never ends, like electricity, phone, email.
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Should we fear that AI is on a scam path, just about to have Gartner-style hype crash?
No.
Fear that AI’s finally 100% on the legit path, and Altman’s about to seize control.
Fear that Elon’s about to give up the fight in record time, with his new LLM contender, putting it right into the hands of the bad crowd just like he did with Twitter.
Fear that this is the one that never ends.
No.
Fear that AI’s finally 100% on the legit path, and Altman’s about to seize control.
Fear that Elon’s about to give up the fight in record time, with his new LLM contender, putting it right into the hands of the bad crowd just like he did with Twitter.
Fear that this is the one that never ends.
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Paper shows that GPT seems to be saying that Journalists are liars
“note that although Democrats are more common than Republicans among journalists (about 3:1 ratio), they usually declare being “middle of the road” (Weaver et al., 2019). Thus, the strong correlation of 0.94 between Journalist GPT and Democrat GPT is surprising.”
Paper
“note that although Democrats are more common than Republicans among journalists (about 3:1 ratio), they usually declare being “middle of the road” (Weaver et al., 2019). Thus, the strong correlation of 0.94 between Journalist GPT and Democrat GPT is surprising.”
Paper
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Chat GPT
AI bots are now better than humans at CAPTCHAs Article
Problem 1: Machines have already long-since crushed the majority of humans on most any CAPTCHA-compatible challenge
Know of any automatically-verifiable skills task that nearly 100% of humans can do, but machines can’t solve at all?
Go ahead, let’s hear it.
Fools errand at this point.
Know of any automatically-verifiable skills task that nearly 100% of humans can do, but machines can’t solve at all?
Go ahead, let’s hear it.
Fools errand at this point.
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Chat GPT
Problem 1: Machines have already long-since crushed the majority of humans on most any CAPTCHA-compatible challenge Know of any automatically-verifiable skills task that nearly 100% of humans can do, but machines can’t solve at all? Go ahead, let’s hear…
Problem 2: There are now TONS of CAPTCHA-solving-by cheap humans API services, that you can easily hook into your spam code in 5 minutes
Even if you do find this elusive type of problem that 100% of humans can easily do but machines cannot -- Still doesn't matter. Can just get humans to do it.
Example
Even if you do find this elusive type of problem that 100% of humans can easily do but machines cannot -- Still doesn't matter. Can just get humans to do it.
Example
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AI Bots May Have Defeated CAPTCHA Tests for Good
“Acartürk thinks that CAPTCHAs might become obsolete in the next couple of decades in favor of other authenticating technologies, such as retina scanning and fingerprint verification.”
“My feeling is that we will have authentication systems which will be dispersed throughout the environment”
Article
“Acartürk thinks that CAPTCHAs might become obsolete in the next couple of decades in favor of other authenticating technologies, such as retina scanning and fingerprint verification.”
“My feeling is that we will have authentication systems which will be dispersed throughout the environment”
Article
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With CAPTCHAs dead, are Elon and Altman right?
Is the only way to defeat digital spam to link all digital entities to real-world human entities? How else will people be able to use human consensus to figure out what to believe?
Is the only way to defeat digital spam to link all digital entities to real-world human entities? How else will people be able to use human consensus to figure out what to believe?
Anonymous Poll
16%
Yes, Elon and Altman are ultimately right, no way around it
13%
No, BETTER CAPTCHA: I know a better one, that humans can solve, AI can't solve, and AI can verify
2%
No, EXPERTS: can instead assign a panel of experts to judge digital content, trust the experts
37%
No, let’s abandon the entire concept of 1 human 1 goodness vote, make it irrelevant who wrote what
32%
Show Answers
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