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Rumors of ChatGPT’s demise have been greatly exaggerated
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OpenAI launches new ChatGPT model, o1, with reasoning capabilities of a PhD student

β€œSimilar to how a human may think for a long time before responding to a difficult question, o1 uses a chain of thought when attempting to solve a problem. Through reinforcement learning, o1 learns to hone its chain of thought and refine the strategies it uses. It learns to recognize and correct its mistakes. It learns to break down tricky steps into simpler ones. It learns to try a different approach when the current one isn’t working. This process dramatically improves the model’s ability to reason.β€œ

OpenAI Announcement
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OpenAI decides to hide the chain-of-thought reasoning from the users, in the name of β€œsafety”?

Screw you OpenAI

Article
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OpenAI confirms that the more you spend on training and inference, the better the model’s accuracy

Just spend more money.

Bitter lesson.

Article
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Just 30 messages weekly limit for new o1 model

Unsurprised.

O1 uses an obscene amount of resources, as the announcement confirms.

At the same time, this always was the correct way forward.

There are no rich, energy-poor nations.

Just use vastly more compute.

Bitter lesson
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Yes
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Hiding the Chain-Of-Thought Reasoning from Users Will Enable OpenAI to Better Manipulate the Users

They don’t even hide it, they openly admit it.

OpenAI will now be hiding the AI reasoning in order to better enable manipulating the users.

Purpose of a system is what it does.

Article
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OpenAI’s new o1 model is doing very well on custom IQ tests

Tracking AI Page
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β€œThis isn’t a new model”
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4 Days
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Chat GPT
The Bitter Lesson
We could have been talking to our desktop computers in English since the 90s!

"Somebody got one of the small versions of Llama to run on Windows 98…”

β€œWe could've been talking to our computers in English for the last 30 years"

- Marc Andreessen

Correct.

The hardware already existed, for decades.

What stopped us?

Extreme aversion to investing money into training much larger AI models.

No one was willing to invest the many millions needed to train an AI model of this size.

In fact, even a decade later in 2011, people were still hardly willing to spend more than TEN DOLLARS on electricity costs to train a state-of-the-art model, e.g. the AlexNet image model

Many truly under-estimate how unwilling to people have been to spend money on AI training, until very recently

And this wasn’t unrealized, many of us had screamed this for decades.

No one cared.

Incredible testiment to man’s unwillingness to invest in certain critical areas of future tech.

β€” happens in AI, advanced market mechanisms, proof systems, and a few other similar areas, that are unquestionably the future.

We could have been talking to our desktop computers in English since the 90s

Bitter Lesson
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We could've been talking to our computers in English for the last 30 years

35.9 tok/sec on a 26 year old Windows 98 Intel Pentium II CPU, with 128MB RAM

Using a 260K LLM with Llama-architecture
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We could've been talking to our computers in English for the last 30 years

Somebody got one of the small versions of Llama to run on Windows 98…

We could've been talking to our computers in English for the last 30 years

- Marc Andreessen
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IF NO ONE COMES FROM THE FUTURE TO STOP YOU FROM DOING IT

THEN HOW BAD CAN IT BE?
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GPT-5 Rumors

Does OpenAI have much more powerful models than they admit?

OpenAI already is heavily restricting access to their new o3 model.

Was OpenAI’s multi-year total pause in SOTA model training, after the completion of GPT-4, just to help kill off potentially-competing startups?
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OpenAI Introduces β€œOperator”

Today we’re releasing Operator⁠(opens in a new window), an agent that can go to the web to perform tasks for you. Using its own browser, it can look at a webpage and interact with it by typing, clicking, and scrolling.

To ensure a safe and iterative rollout, we are starting small. Starting today, Operator is available to Pro users in the U.S. at
operator.chatgpt.com⁠

Operator is powered by a new model called Computer-Using Agent (CUA). Combining GPT-4o's vision capabilities with advanced reasoning through reinforcement learning, CUA is trained to interact with graphical user interfaces (GUIs)β€”the buttons, menus, and text fields people see on a screen.

Operator can β€œsee” (through screenshots) and β€œinteract” (using all the actions a mouse and keyboard allow) with a browser, enabling it to take action on the web without requiring custom API integrations.

To get started, simply describe the task you’d like done and Operator can handle the rest. Users can choose to take over control of the remote browser at any point, and Operator is trained to proactively ask the user to take over for tasks that require login, payment details, or when solving CAPTCHAs.

OpenAI Announcement
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As was foretold
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OpenAI’s Operator reading through hotel reviews on Tripadvisor to find the best hotel sauna in Stockholm
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A more realistic Hal 9000
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