🇺🇸 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Trump 2 is quietly dialing back Taiwan Strait transits: “…current rates project only 14 publicly reported transits for the entirety of Trump 2.0 — in what would amount to a 50 percent decline from Trump 1.0 and a 56 percent decline from the Biden administration.”

The severing of undersea cables and lately the unlawful stops and inspections of Taiwanese vessels are part of Beijing’s “salami-slicing” tactics aimed at draining the vigilance of Taiwan’s government. Still, Beijing has held off on launching an all-out invasion of the island for now. The prospect of US involvement — a perception partly sustained by routine naval presence — threatens to complicate China’s effort to achieve the “strategic decisive victory” that Chinese President Xi Jinping envisions.

Fewer public transits are taking place under Trump 2.0, at a time when Chinese maritime forces have grown more bellicose. While undeclared transits may be filling this gap, there is a real risk that American allies and partners—let alone Beijing—could misinterpret the Trump administration’s strategy as a retreat on American commitments. Perceptions of that kind, once formed, can become difficult to reverse.

https://breakingdefense.com/2026/08/america-is-sailing-through-the-taiwan-strait-less-does-it-matter/

📎 Derek J. Grossman

🌾 🌍 🚜 JPMorgan warns a massive global food supply crisis could begin next year as fertilizer shortages tighten agricultural supply.

JPMorgan is the latest institutional research desk to warn that the next global food crisis may already be taking shape, driven by what its analysts describe as the "Five Ws": War, Weather, Warehousing, Water, and Waste.

In a new report titled Food Security Is National Security: A Compounding Storm, a team led by London-based senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi warned that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and the emergence of a potentially historic El Niño could weaken crop yields, constrain agricultural production, and keep food inflation elevated through the first half of 2027.

"Successive shocks since COVID have compounded, eroding food production capacity and keeping food price pressures elevated into 2027," Szentivanyi said, warning that "this is not a short-lived shock; it has reduced the likelihood of near-term disinflation, and the food inflation cycle is likely to exert pressure through 1H27."

She expects global food inflation to accelerate from 2.8% in the first half of 2026 to 5% in the first half of next year.

The warning comes despite a modest improvement in hunger statistics. About 645 million people faced hunger in 2025, down roughly 43 million from 2022. Yet 2.1 billion people, or 25.8% of the global population, still experienced moderate or severe food insecurity.

Szentivanyi outlined the most immediate vulnerability: fertilizer. She noted, "Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the coming super El Niño are adding to fertilizer and food price pressures."

She said that "crop and price effects are still building and agricultural impacts lag the oceanic peak by 6 to 12 months."

Szentivanyi warned that this year's energy shock could roughly double the inflationary impact of a super El Niño, lifting global food CPI by about 1.5 percentage points, compared with the historical .7-point increase. Food inflation is projected to reach a 5% annualized rate in the first half of 2027, adding .6 percentage points to headline inflation and slowing full-year disinflation by .3 points.

"Exposure is concentrated in South and Southeast Asia, including rice, sugar, and coffee; West Africa, including cocoa; and parts of East and Southern Africa," the analyst said, adding, "EM bears the brunt of El Niño. The largest food inflation responses are concentrated in EM Asia and Latin America, where weather-sensitive agriculture plays a larger role in economic activity, and food carries a higher weight in consumption baskets. India, Colombia, Indonesia, Brazil, Taiwan, and Korea emerge as among the most sensitive economies"”

Furthermore, China has been stockpiling food, fertilizer, energy, and industrial metals. While the West has strategic oil reserves (quickly draining to offset the loss of Gulf supplies), it lacks a meaningful fertilizer buffer. With the Hormuz chokepoint still disrupted, crop conditions deteriorating, and export controls spreading, Szentivanyi suggests that the next inflation shock may emerge not at the gas pump, as seen earlier this year, but potentially in the grocery aisle next year.

This comes as the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's global food price index climbed to a three-year high in July.

Bank of America analyst Robert Ohmes recently warned that another food price spike could arrive in supermarkets this fall. He said that grocery inflation "may be on the way," citing a blended index of wages, diesel, and commodity costs.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/wont-be-short-lived-jpmorgan-warns-next-global-food-crisis-could-erupt-next-year

🇺🇸 The Trump government could have used Charlie Kirk’s assassination to annihilate antifa, the Far Left and kneecap the DSA.

Now, the same Leftist garbage that openly celebrated his horrific murder will be the sole beneficiaries since Kirk was eliminated & the Right devoured itself

📎 Nicholas J. Fuentes

⚡💰 Gold has overtaken U.S. Treasuries as the World's Top Reserve Asset, as countries and private investors resumed their accumulation of gold assets.

@medmannews

⚡️🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel’s national security minister, Ben-Gvir says Israeli forces should “kill 30 or 40” people in Gaza every night.

“There are people there who are not worthy of life. They shouldn’t live. They’re not even people”, Ben-Gvir added.

@medmannews

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Ismael Baqaei:

‘There is no such thing as 60-day ceasefire. There was supposed to be a period of cessation of hostilities for 60 days, in which the U.S. and Iran would try to reach a deal.

If it did not succeed—but provided the U.S. abided by its committments—this could have been extended.

But the U.S. never abided by a single one of the MoU terms, and no serious talks ever began. Therefore, there is nothing to extend, and the issue of the ‘60-day ceasefire’ is completely void and irrelevant.’

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: Iran has issued an ultimatum to the United States; return to serious diplomacy and remove the naval blockade, or face an expansion of the war

The deadline, which is said to be several weeks at most, has been communicated to the United States through Pakistan and Qatar, according to Reuters.

@Middle_East_Spectator