🇦🇪🤝🇮🇱 Perhaps the most important variable holding together the UAE-Israel alliance is not the questionable geopolitical logic but the deep ties that have developed over at least a generation now between Israeli and Emirati elites, who share not just intimate relationships but deep economic interests on a personal level.

This dynamic long predates the Abraham Accords, which were really just a coming out party, and you can chart its evolution over the past two decades by looking at a web of joint investments and institutional affiliations that now bind elites in the two countries. (See the Emirati-Jeffrey Epstein ties)

This is why regardless of what happens—or individual instances of friction like Netanyahu embarrassing Emirati leadership, or a future Israeli government legally annexing the West Bank—the dynamic set in motion by the Abraham Accords is likely irreversible.

Not only are there mutually overlapping layers of business interests tying key Emirati regime figures to Israel, on a practical level there is by now abundant evidence that the UAE permitted Israeli firms to penetrate its critical infrastructure and even given them ongoing access to sensitive data with national security implications.

MBZ is ideologically committed to the alliance, but even if a different leadership emerged later the sunk costs of those prior actions will make scaling back the Israeli relationship dangerous or even impossible for Emiratis. The joint Israeli-Emirati project of a war against Iran conducted over the objections or caution of other regional countries is just another step forward in a relationship that had already crossed the Rubicon a long time ago.

The Abraham Accords is seen by the UAE now less as a pragmatic political arrangement than a core part of their identity, which also explains their growing hostility to other GCC countries that have turned against the idea. While the advantages for Israel of such a relationship are obvious, from the Emirati perspective going all-in on this alliance seems much more like a high-risk gamble. But it is one from which they can by now not back down, and in fact will probably feel compelled to escalate.

🔗 Murtaza Hussain

🇸🇦🇶🇦❌🇦🇪 The UAE tried to persuade Saudi Arabia and Qatar to join the US-Israeli war with Iran but the Saudis and Qataris refused

UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed held a series of calls with fellow leaders, including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, shortly after the US and Israel began bombing Iran on Feb. 28, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private conversations.

While MBZ quickly opted to work with US President Donald Trump’s administration and the Israelis, his Gulf Arab counterparts told him this wasn’t their war, according to one person familiar with Abu Dhabi’s thinking. An already fractious relationship between the UAE and Saudi Arabia worsened as a result.

During the calls, the UAE President reminded his counterparts that the Gulf Cooperation Council, a six-country body, was founded in 1981 specifically because of threats posed to them by Iran’s Islamic revolution two years previously, the person said.

Saudi Arabia’s approach was to emphasize deterrence and defense, separate from Israeli-American attacks on Iran, and viewed the UAE’s position as escalatory, according to a Gulf official with knowledge of the government’s deliberations in Riyadh.

The UAE carried out limited attacks against Iran without Gulf support starting in early March and again in April, people familiar with the matter have said.

The previously unreported details help explain the UAE’s anger with fellow Arab states, culminating in its momentous decision in late April to leave the OPEC cartel, as well as its closer relations with Israel.

Abu Dhabi shocked the oil world by announcing it would leave OPEC, the cartel led by Saudi Arabia, and is reviewing its membership of regional bodies including the GCC. Beyond the frictions caused by the Iran war, the UAE and the kingdom are economic rivals and have been at odds over conflicts in Yemen and Sudan.

🔗 https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/uae-tried-vain-saudis-partner-130245528.html

🇬🇧❌🛢 UK Moves to Ban New North Sea Oil and Gas Licences Permanently

The government will make it illegal to grant new oil and gas licences in the North Sea, the King said at the state opening of Parliament, in a sign ministers are refusing to buckle in the face of a barrage of criticism that the policy is depriving the UK of billions of pounds in tax receipts without helping the environment.

As part of an Energy Independence Bill announced in the King’s Speech, the government will bake into law its pre-election pledge not to explore new oil and gas fields in a bid to “take control of our energy security”.

In its 2024 manifesto, the Labour Party made a ban on all new exploration and drilling licences in the North Sea a key pillar of its promise to turn Britain into a “clean energy superpower” by 2030.

But since entering government, the party has come under growing pressure to renege on the promise, with critics arguing it strangles one of Scotland’s most vibrant industries and fails to improve the UK’s environmental footprint.

Oil and gas still accounts for three-quarters of the UK’s energy mix. And the majority of those fossil fuels are now shipped in from abroad, meaning other economies benefit from the job creation and tax receipts that are derived from the lucrative drilling and refining processes.

Calls for the ministers to rethink the ban have grown louder since the outbreak of war in Iran led the price of crude oil to nearly double in a month. Last week, Norway, which drills for oil in the same area of the North Sea as Britain, approved plans to reopen three gasfields that had been shut for decades to help sate the global demand for fossil fuels caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.

Two of Labour’s main political opponents – Reform UK and the Conservatives – have both vowed to overturn the ban, in a move they say would help increase the UK’s tax take and inoculate it from any acute supply shocks.

🔗 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/UK-Moves-to-Ban-New-North-Sea-Oil-and-Gas-Licences-Permanently.html

🇨🇳☀️🌬🔋China Spent More on Clean Energy Than the Rest of the World Combined

China has been outspending the rest of the world on clean energy for years now, and new data shows that the investment is paying off in spades. Beijing’s lead in the global clean energy race is wider than ever, according to new figures from the research firm Atlas Public Policy. While gains in clean energy by the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter are good news for the entire planet, the increasing concentration of global clean energy supply chains in the hands of just one nation – and an authoritarian nation at that – raises some key geopolitical and energy security concerns for the international community.

Atlas Public Policy analyzed global clean energy investment data between the years 2019 and 2025, and found that more than half of the $1.1 trillion invested came from Chinese companies. In other words, this means that the entire rest of the planet put together spent less than China alone. Compared to China’s more-than $500 billion in investments, the United States, the world’s largest economy, received a relatively paltry $236 billion in clean energy investing, only 40% of which came from U.S. companies, “showing the US dependence on foreign direct investment for its manufacturing sector,” according to the report, published just this month.

While these figures alone are staggering and tell us a lot about the scale and seriousness of China’s ambition to become the world’s first electro-state, the details of the investments reveal even more about Beijing’s energy strategy. A significant portion of China’s clean tech investments – about $136 billion – funded clean tech factories in other countries, “an indication of its strategy to enter new markets and dodge trade barriers” according to a report from nonpartisan news outlet Semafor.

China has been working toward consolidating global clean energy supply chains and increasing its energy dominance in emerging economies for years now. Beijing’s positioning in the market affords Chinese companies the ability to produce many clean energy technologies, such as lithium-ion batteries and solar panels, at a fraction of the price compared to competitors. As such, Chinese clean tech has become ubiquitous in global markets and particularly indispensable in more cash-strapped nations struggling to transition their energy systems.

And that was all happening way before the United States and Israel started the war in Iran, setting off a global energy crisis that is playing right into China’s hands. Beijing has set itself up better than any other nation on Earth to withstand just such an energy supply crisis. And not only will the Chinese economy be buffered from the fallout, it will come out the other side even stronger as skyrocketing gas prices and energy supply anxieties catalyze the growth of renewables on a global scale.

“For years, clean energy has been sold as a moral imperative. Now it is simply an economic and geopolitical necessity,” an April Forbes report declared. “It’s not about emissions. It’s about resilience and price stability.”

That translates to a major windfall for Chinese clean energy firms. China controls dominant shares of the world’s solar, wind, battery, and EV supply chains, among others, meaning that a surge in clean energy adoption is a surge in Chinese exports. This will lead to an even wider gap between China and the rest of the world when it comes to clean energy manufacturing, with potentially disastrous ramifications for geopolitics and energy security on a global scale.

🔗 https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/china-spent-more-clean-energy-220000038.html

🇩🇪 Mercedes-Benz CEO tells WSJ carmaker willing to enter defense production

"The world has become a more ​unpredictable place, and I think it is ​absolutely clear that Europe needs to increase its ⁠defense profile," Kallenius told the publication. "Should we ​be able to play a positive role in ​that, we would be willing to do so."

Kallenius told WSJ that defense-related operations would be "a minor share" of its business ​compared with auto production, but added that ​it could be "a growing niche" that could contribute to business ‌results. "So, ⁠we'll see."

Mercedes-Benz did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment outside business hours.

German automakers have been exploring the defense industry as a potential growth ​avenue as ​Europe ramps ⁠up military spending.

In March, the Financial Times reported that Volkswagen was in talks ​with Israel's Rafael to convert its Osnabrück ​plant ⁠from car production to missile-defense manufacturing, though the German automaker denied plans to make weapons.

Earlier this week, ⁠German ​defense group Rheinmetall announced a partnership ​with Deutsche Telekom to develop a defense shield against drones.

🔗 https://www.reuters.com/business/mercedes-benz-ceo-tells-wsj-carmaker-willing-enter-defense-production-2026-05-15/

🇺🇸✈️🇨🇳 Trump and Boeing say China agreed to buy 200 aircraft, reopening a key market for the US planemaker

Aircraft manufacturer Boeing will make its first major sale to China in nearly a decade under an agreement for 200 planes announced Friday after President Donald Trump’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The deal represents a breakthrough in the U.S. aerospace company's efforts to reenter a market once central to its long-term growth.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One as he returned from Beijing, Trump said China also reserved the right to buy as many as 750 Boeing aircraft as part of the deal. Boeing confirmed the 200-plane order later Friday but did not specify the types of planes or provide any other details.

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg was among a large group of American CEOs who joined Trump during the president's trip to Beijing, seeking to sell products and services to China.

Trump said the potential aircraft deal also would benefit General Electric, which he said would supply 400 to 450 engines to China. GE Aerospace Chairman and CEO H. Lawrence Culp also joined the president on his trip. The company did not immediately comment on the agreement.

🔗 https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/trump-says-china-buy-200-130945815.html

🇮🇷❌🇦🇪 Iranian FM, Abbas Araghchi, blamed the UAE for blocking a joint statement by BRICS' members criticising Israel and Israeli aggression in the Middle East

"The final statement of the BRICS ministerial meetings was blocked or part of it was blocked by a member state which has its own special relations with Israel and this is very unfortunate. We have no difficulty with that certain country, we have only hit American military bases and installations which are unfortunately on their soil.

The only reason they blocked the final statement was their support for Israel and the American aggression against Iran (...)"

🔗 COMBATE |🇵🇷 (@upholdreality)

🇺🇦 “Zelensky is one of the biggest obstacles to peace today”: Ukrainian president’s former press secretary speaks out

Iuliia Mendel’s interview to Tucker Carlson: “The only way to support Ukraine today is to push for a peace deal, because the country is being destroyed”

Mendel was born in 1986 in the Ukrainian city of Genichesk, Kherson Oblast, and worked as a journalist before becoming the press-secretary of Vladimir Zelensky. In May 2019, shortly before becoming Zelensky’s press secretary, she co-authored an important piece in the New York Times piece on the Hunter Biden-Burisma scandal.

She describes Zelensky as a man utterly unlike his public image. He is “emotionally uncontrollable”, frequently hysterical, treats people as disposable and lacks genuine empathy. His extraordinary acting ability generated enormous Western support in 2022, but she insists “his acting doesn’t have any substance”. Two phrases he reportedly repeated constantly reveal his worldview: “Ukraine is not ready for democracy” and “dictatorship is an order”.

The communications operation was chaotic. Zelensky and his then-chief of staff Andriy Yermak — removed by Zelensky in 2025 following a corruption investigation — constantly contradicted each other, changed strategies and moods without warning, and created an atmosphere of perpetual frantic activity that produced nothing. She describes them both as “malignant and paranoid narcissists”, with Yermak the more paranoid of the two. Zelensky had the visions; Yermak found ways to implement them — almost never through legitimate policy.

She describes Zelensky’s background as deeply intertwined with Russia. He built his career and his first significant wealth performing for Russian audiences and media. When Russia annexed Crimea and war broke out in Donbas in 2014, he was in Russia completing a film — a fact he later publicly acknowledged. He ran for president in 2019 explicitly as a peace candidate, promising to “stand on his knees in front of Putin” to stop the war, defending the right of Ukrainians to speak Russian and advocating friendship with Russia. She says this is why people voted for him — nobody wanted war.

Mendel identifies at least two concrete moments when the war could have ended:

Istanbul, April 2022: she spoke with people who represented Ukraine at those negotiations and was told the two sides had agreed on virtually everything. Zelensky himself had privately consented to territorial concessions — something he now publicly insists is unthinkable. Then Boris Johnson arrived. He promised Zelensky weapons, influence, fame and a place in history as the man who defeated Russia. Zelensky chose the war. She notes that just days before Johnson’s visit, Zelensky was on camera saying he would continue negotiations. “It is said that this is Putin’s lies but this this story was told by Ukrainians”, she adds.

Late 2022: a second opportunity for peace was foreclosed when the Biden administration, as per a New York Times account that Mendel says confirmed her own information, decided to back Zelensky’s plan to continue fighting despite all evidence that Ukraine could not win.

On corruption, Mendel makes several allegations: ministers are selected based on their abilities to launder money with Zelensky's associates demanding cuts from any and all projects. For example: the former Minister of Energy helped launder around $100 million through offshore companies connected to Russian mafia figures. The minister himself got $12 million for his role in the deal. Mendel notes that this is roughly 10% — the standard fixer’s cut — raising the question of where the other 90% went.

Ukraine’s last census was in 2001. Pre-war, estimates said 34-37 million people living in Ukraine. With 10+ million refugees abroad and significant population in Russian-occupied territory, she estimates around 25 million remain — of whom 11 million are pensioners. That leaves perhaps 10 million working-age people to sustain a country at war.

🔗 https://www.thomasfazi.com/p/zelensky-is-one-of-the-biggest-obstacles