🇮🇷🛢🚢 Report: 52 Iranian ships breach US blockade within 72 hours

Fifty two Iranian vessels have crossed a US-imposed blockade of Iranian waters within a 72-hour period, Iran’s Fars News Agencyreported.
According to the report, which cited satellite tracking data covering the three days leading up to 10:00 pm local time on Monday, the vessels included 31 oil tankers and 21 cargo ships.

🔗 https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260429-report-52-iranian-ships-breach-us-blockade-within-72-hours/

🛢 “Why aren’t oil prices higher?” “How can the oil market be so complacent?”

Oil prices almost always trade to extremes. Right before it does, it always gets “obvious” from a fundamental setup standpoint.

I remember a great conversation I had with Nelson Wu of Open Square Capital about the oil market being analogous to toilet paper. You don’t realize how badly you need it until you run out of it.

Oil prices trade on the margin. As long as there are onshore inventories to draw from, traders don’t panic. It’s when you run low on onshore inventories that panic starts to set in.

Goldman published an update on Thursday that basically captured the storage math phenomenon that we are seeing:

Global visible total oil inventories remain bloated relative to historical standards. If, for example, we had started the conflict with global oil inventories at the 2025 lows, WTI and Brent would already be above $200/bbl.

The ~1.4 billion bbl cushion at the start of 2026 is what gave the US time to navigate the Iranian conflict without the oil market blowing up. It was also the same reason why at the beginning of the conflict, I wrote a piece titled, “Why Aren’t Oil Prices At $100?”

But fast forwarding 6-weeks later, the facts have changed. The conflict is ongoing, and that onshore cushion you are seeing in storage is nothing but a mirage. Even if the conflict ends this very second and everything returns to normal, that oil inventory is gone.

Vanished. No more.

In essence, the oil market really should be pricing forward balances as if we are already near 7.6 billion bbls, but it’s not, and this creates the biggest mispricing trade since the COVID lockdown (short oil) trade.

Oil traders, the physical guys, lack both the means and capabilities to drive financial prices higher. Financial markets are exponentially larger than the physical side, but there’s one quirk: expiry.

As the futures market approaches expiry, people who continue to hold the contracts are obligated to deliver the goods (literally). This mechanism will be tested first at the May WTI expiry, where the physical market is already quoted at a +$20 premium to financial prices. It will be tested again in the Brent expiry at the end of the month.

What will happen is that as we get closer to the expiry, market participants who are short have to cover because there’s no way in hell they can deliver the goods physically.

We are literally going to run out of available commercial crude storage. This will force the prompt month higher, which will suck in financial flows into the June contracts. This inflection point will shock market participants awake.

This is one of the main reasons why I’ve remained so calm over the past few weeks. The math is what it is. The Trump administration can jawbone oil prices all they want. Axios can publish whatever headlines it wants, but the reality will be swift and vicious. If you do not have the means to deliver the goods, you have to cover.

🔗 HFI Research

🏳⚔️🇲🇱🇷🇺 JNIM militants took the town of Hombori on the Sévaré-Douentza-Gossi-Gao RN6 highway.

The Malian garrisons in Gossi and Gao are even more isolated now from the Malian capital.

@CIG_telegram

🇷🇺❌🏳 Russia rejected JNIM's demands to withdraw its forces from Mali.

🔗 https://www.france24.com/fr/info-en-continu/20260430-mali-moscou-rejette-l-appel-des-rebelles-touaregs-%C3%A0-un-retrait-russe

📊 🛢 💵 In less than 48 hours, Brent crude has swung from a local low of $111 to a high of $126 and is currently trading at around $116

📎 elerianm

🏳⚔️🇲🇱🇷🇺 JNIM claims to have captured the police stations in the towns of Fana and Kassela in the Koulikoro Region.

Kassela is 16 mi (25.5 km) east of the Malian capital, Bamako.

@CIG_telegram

🍚 War on Iran & El Niño threaten world rice production

Global rice supply is expected to decline this year as farmers across Asia reduce planting areas due to fertilizer shortages and higher fuel costs linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran, while an emerging El Niño weather pattern is also likely to further limit production of the world’s most widely consumed staple.

The impact of the war in West Asia is being felt by farmers in major exporting countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, as well as in import-dependent nations like the Philippines and Indonesia, according to growers and traders. Disruptions to fuel and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping chokepoint linking the Gulf to international markets, have contributed to the strain.

Smallholder farmers in Southeast Asia are also facing added pressure as El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions in the second half of the year.

🔗 The Cradle

🇸🇩 🇲🇱 🇸🇩 Clément Molin on X: While we talk a lot about the situation in Mali, another Sahelian state is at war, Sudan.

The situation at the frontline hasn't moved much since a year, the battle for Kordofan that started more than a year ago has not seen any decisive push.

The Sudanese Armed Forces have been unable to counter the Rapid Support Forces in the Kordofan region. The RSF even managed to take back control of the strategic El Obeid - Dilling road this month. Fierce fighting are still ongoing.

However, this year, the RSF, with the help of their regional allies opened a new front east of the Nile river, in the Blue Nile region. Supplied by their main sponsor (the UAE) through Ethiopia (where it seems they have access to some rear bases) and South Sudan (where they can cross from Darfur), they have been able to push farther into Sudan.

Their aim is to reach the strategic city of Damazin through the summer, to threaten the SAF rear.

At the same time, the war in Sudan has seen a sharp increase in drone strikes, both with MALE drones and kamikaze drones, especially targeting rear bases and airports. With the war in the Middle East, the eyes of many Middle Eastern sponsors (Qatar, Saudi Arabia...) have gone away, but the war hasn't stopped anyway and is set to continue.

📎 Clément Molin

📝 🛢 📊 Rory Johnston on X: Seeing some confusion on the feed re: Brent prices/volatility and today's expiry.

Today is the last day of trading for Brent's June contract (white), and tomorrow the July contract (blue) becomes the "prompt" price most of us see when we search "Brent crude price"

June Brent hit >$126/bbl overnight before sharply pulling back, currently around $114—with a solid chunk of final day trading to go. It wasn't destined to crash on its final day, but it's more prone to sharp jerky moves like this.

July Brent hit $114, pulled back less sharply, and is currently sitting around $110; this second-month contract is currently sitting higher than June was at the time of the May Brent contract expiry at end-March.

Both prices are important, but the June contract stops being important today and July takes us forward from here.

📎 Rory Johnston

🔋 📉 🛢 From OECD to emerging markets: fossil power’s global decline has begun

Rapid solar and wind scaling is actively displacing thermal generation. OECD fossil generation has peaked while systematic decommissioning of coal-fired power plants is under way across most member states. This shift is now extending beyond the OECD, with fossil generation falling in major emerging economies for the first time this century outside the COVID-affected year of 2020.

Colombia, now hosting the Santa Marta conference, has seen fossil power fall by 13% below its 2024 peak level.

Other LatAm OECD members tell a similar story: Chile’s fossil generation is 36% below its 2013 peak, while Mexico’s is 6% below its 2018 peak.

https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/from-oecd-to-emerging-markets-fossil-powers-global-decline-has-begun

📎 Ember Energy

🚫 🇨🇳 ✈️ China to ban drone sales in Beijing citing security concerns

China will ban the sale of drones in Beijing and require permits to fly them under new rules that take effect on Friday.

Drones and key components will be prohibited from being sold, rented or brought into the Chinese capital. Drone owners will also be required to register their devices with the police.

China has gradually tightened regulations on drones in recent years, with authorities citing public safety concerns.

Drones and flying taxis are part of the so-called low-altitude economy, a strategic priority for China that is expected to generate more than two trillion yuan ($290bn; £217bn) by 2035.

In some Chinese cities, drones are a common sight, used for food delivery, agriculture and cleaning buildings.

Chinese companies may dominate the global drone market, but the country is becoming one of the most difficult places to fly one.

Drones must be registered before they can be brought in and out of Beijing. And if users send their drones out of the city for repair, they need to pick up the device in person rather than have it delivered.

All outdoor drone flights in Beijing will also require prior approval, and drone users must complete an online training session and pass a test on drone regulations.

There are exceptions: Drones may still be bought and stored for purposes like counter-terrorism and disaster relief, if approved by authorities.

But in recent years China has repeatedly tightened rules governing the use of drones in the country.

Last year, Beijing's entire airspace was designated a no-drone zone, with approval needed from air traffic authorities before people can fly their drones.

With the looming new restrictions, DJI shops in Beijing are reportedly taking drones and related products off their shelves.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gv4dvngygo