🔼 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 S&P 500 futures surge to a new record high on reports of a second round of US-Iran peace talks.

This puts the index over +12% higher since the March 30th low.

A massive short squeeze is underway.

📎 KobeissiLetter

🛢 🇺🇸 📉 US oil prices crash to $81/barrel, now at their lowest since March 10th.

📎 KobeissiLetter

🇮🇱🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Let's take a step back and consider the bigger picture.

Strategic goals on day one of the war:
• Israel: eliminate Iran and Hezbollah as threats to Israel
• Iran: survive, deter future aggression

Fast forward to today, six weeks in, and it's obvious the Israeli war effort has failed. Their ideal state for Iran is Balkanization, or a second Syria, unable to mount any cohesive efforts against Israel. But the Iranian state remains stable, the regime change attempts failed. The IDF again failed to do more than push a few miles into Lebanon. Whatever the Israelis were attempting to do to destroy Hezbollah with the cooperation of the Lebanese government also seems to have failed. And Hezbollah seems much stronger than anyone assumed before this conflict.

The Israeli ability to achieve these goals hinged on sucking the US into maximal commitment in war against Iran. A second GWOT would have been ideal, with the US bogged down in Iran for years or even decades. At the moment, this too seems to have failed.

While Iran has suffered substantial damage to its infrastructure, its government has survived. But what about its second goal, deterrence? Here's how things have changed since the start of this conflict:

• US bases in the Gulf region have been largely abandoned, many have suffered heavy damage ("uninhabitable" according to the NYT). The US has completely withdrawn from Syria and mostly withdrawn from Iraq. This is an unprecedented retreat.
• The US radar network that protects Israel and the Gulf states has been mostly destroyed
• Iran has demonstrated that it's both able and willing to light the region on fire and blockade it if threatened
• They've also demonstrated that their state is strong enough to withstand a major air US campaign
• The passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced from a 21mi wide corridor to one that's only ~3mi wide, between Larak and Qeshm. This makes future closures of the strait trivial. Even a small team of a few dozen IRGC personnel can now shut off 20% of global oil flows
• The broader political balance in the region is now up in the air. The GCC has suffered enormous economic damage. A new security architecture may emerge in response to this, possibly one that favors Iran

This is an improved position for Iran as compared to before the conflict, which is remarkable. They've made it clear that there's no reasonable path to the US/Israeli strategic goals. Continuing the air campaign or some kind of limited land invasion won't move the needle. If the air campaign didn't work before, it's even less likely to work now.

Now that we're in a period of diplomacy, the Iranians are attempting to secure the long-term consolidation of their gains. They also stand a chance of extracting some incredible concessions:

• International acceptance of a toll regime on the strait
• The lifting of (some) sanctions
• Unfreezing of billions in Iranian funds (most of which are currently stored in Qatar)
• Normalization of relations with various states in Europe and Asia

If the Iranians play this game correctly, they can achieve some or all of these things while suffering no casualties (this is the power of diplomacy). The key to this is driving a wedge, no matter how minor, between the US and Israel. By refusing to compromise on a ceasefire in Lebanon and linking the status of the strait to that ceasefire, the Iranians seem to have done this. They need to make it clear that an Israeli violation of the ceasefire will result in the closure of the strait. This will ensure that the US continues to exert pressure on Israel to maintain the ceasefire.

Exploiting this wedge is Iran's path to the long-term attrition of Israel. This conflict has brought the contradictions in the US/Israeli relationship to a head in an unprecedented way.

🔗 Amerikanets

🇵🇹 New data shows Portugal emitted the most residence permits in the entire EU.

1.2 million in 2024 alone, which is over 10% of the entire population, far ahead of countries 6-8x larger like France or Germany.

Adjusted for this, GDP per capita growth has been 0.8%/yr since 2019.

🔗 Duarte

🌐 🇹🇷 🪖 Turkey has recently advanced economic and security ties with Niger and Somalia, viewing both countries as its African anchor states through which it can further its strategic interests in Africa.

These partnerships aim to address several domestic concerns, such as patronage and energy security, and bolster Turkey’s international standing vis-à-vis global competitors.

Turkey and Somalia have continued advancing maritime resource agreements in March 2026 that the two partners have signed in recent years.

The two countries signed a deal enabling a joint Somali-Turkish company that a Turkish military-linked entity manages to regulate fishing in Somali waters, after having established the joint company in December 2025.

Turkey is also bolstering its long-term military presence in Somalia through the deployment of advanced weaponry, such as F-16s, and exploration of new aerospace and naval bases.

Turkey has taken advantage of efforts to recognize Somaliland to further its close relationship with the FGS at the expense of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) since 2024, brokering deals to secure economic and military influence in Somali waters and support greater Ethiopian sea access via Turkish-linked ports in Somalia.

These moves reinforce Somalia as Turkey’s anchor state in the Horn of Africa as Turkey competes for favorable positioning in the Indian Ocean and near the Red Sea and access to regional economic markets.

Turkey has separately advanced plans to deploy forces to Niger, its anchor state in the Sahel, which would be the first deployment of Turkish regular forces in the region.

Turkey has already signed several defense deals with Niger and is pursuing greater cooperation on uranium mining with Niger, as Turkey seeks to develop its domestic nuclear energy program.

Turkey’s partnerships with both countries bolster Turkey’s international clout as an Islamic alternative to Chinese, Russian, and Western partnerships.

Turkey’s relationships in Niger and Somalia position it to contribute to international counterterrorism cooperation, generating significant leverage with countries that share these interests—including China, European countries, and the United States.

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/turkey-somalia-niger-africa-file-april-16-2026

📎 Critical Threats

🔼 🇺🇸 🖥 The S&P 500 closes at its highest level on record and officially posts its fastest recovery since 1982.

The S&P 500 has now added +$7.3 TRILLION since its low on March 30th.

📎 KobeissiLetter