🇰🇷🛢 South Korean refiners won't last much longer.

I just met with their strategy and procurement heads, and one of them mentioned they only have three weeks of feedstock left.

Even if the SK government releases the SPR, it’s nothing more than a stopgap measure. Run cuts are now inevitable.

Given that South Korean refiners are heavily export-oriented, this will only accelerate the vicious cycle in the global refined product mkt.

There’s a lot of noise out here, but the only real solution is reopening the Strait of Hormuz. We don’t have much time before the supply chain completely falls apart.

All I’m seeing are sensational headlines, not any actual signs of de-escalation.

🔗 CrudeOil231

🇱🇰🛢 Sri Lanka declares Wednesdays off as Asian countries try to conserve fuel

🔗 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g5n58rlnzo

🇺🇸 Trump's Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, resigned:

"I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby."

🔗 Joe Kent

🇨🇳🇺🇸 China is not going to bail Trump out

The US president’s request for Chinese help is a black swan moment.

In an age of great power rivalry, the hegemon is inviting its main challenger to help extract it from the world’s most combustible region. Read that again. Then ponder where China’s incentive lies. Why interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake?

That China has no intention of sending minesweepers to the Strait of Hormuz is clear. The question is whether Xi Jinping wants to see Trump backed into a corner. It is one thing for China to gain a diplomatic edge over the US; quite another to test whether Trump is Dr Strangelove.

The worse things go for Trump in the Gulf, the more tempted he will be to take risks. George W Bush’s 2003 invasion of Iraq ended up being a geopolitical windfall for China. American boots on the ground in Iran could be at least as big.

Trump’s pitch to China nevertheless makes sense. With roughly half of China’s oil imports coming through the Strait of Hormuz, compared with almost nothing for America, Xi has a greater long-term stake in Middle Eastern stability than the US.

That was one reason why Joe Biden commended China for brokering a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023. The hope was that China’s days of free riding on US maritime security were over. That sounded plausible then. In today’s drone-infested Middle East, however, Beijing is content to play the onlooker.

Trump clearly loath to be pictured on a podium with Xi while the war with Iran is still raging. The optics of any US president — let alone Trump — heading to the Forbidden City with a begging bowl is too lurid. In an interview with the FT on Sunday, Trump floated the prospect of delaying the summit, which was set for March 31 to April 2.

On Monday he postponed it. In the interview, he said that China’s help in the Gulf would be needed before he met Xi, whenever that is. Since Trump knows there is scant chance China will insert personnel into the world’s most lethal chokepoint, we must take the reason for the president’s delay with a pinch of salt.

Which leaves the world in a state of suspension. Trump has better odds of cajoling help from Nato partners, including Britain.

🔗 https://archive.ph/0lhXx

🇺🇸🚒🔥 The USS Gerald R. Ford is expected to return to Crete next week, likely for refueling and possibly to investigate a fire that broke out on March 12.

One scenario under review is that the fire may have been deliberately set by crew members seeking to end the prolonged deployment.

Source: Kathimerini

🔗 Clash Report

🇷🇺 Russian Fertilizer Plant Hit by Drones to Stay Shut Until May

Russian authorities said a major nitrogen fertilizer plant will remain idle until May after a Ukrainian drone strike last month, signaling further strain on supplies as the Middle East conflict disrupts global trade.

Dorogobuzh PJSC, which produces about 2 million metric tons of nitrogen nutrients a year, was damaged in a fire in late February following an attack on the Smolensk region that Moscow blamed on Ukraine.

“Under favorable conditions, we expect to relaunch some of the plant’s units by May,” the state-run Tass news service cited Smolensk Governor Vasily Anokhin as saying Tuesday. The plant’s owner, Acron Group, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Dorogobuzh outage risks tightening an already constrained market just as Northern Hemisphere farmers ramp up spring application, a peak demand period, while trade flows are disrupted by the Middle East conflict.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime chokepoint between Iran and Oman linking the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, has been effectively closed for weeks. The passage handles about one-third of the global fertilizer trade, compounding supply risks at a time when China, the top producer of nutrients, has also curbed exports.

Russia, the world’s second-largest fertilizer producer, accounts for about 20% of the global nutrient trade. The country’s nitrogen fertilizer output rose 2.3% last year to 28.9 million tons, but the Kremlin has limited exports to prioritize domestic supply. The authorities set an export quota for nitrogen fertilizers of about 10.6 million tons for the period from Dec. 1, 2025, through May 31, 2026.

Altogether, these constraints could force buyers to compete for limited supply, driving up prices and raising costs for farmers globally.

🔗 https://archive.ph/zyXuD

🇺🇸🌾🚜 Iran War Cost Spike Straining Farmers Ahead of Midterm Elections

US farmers, long one of Donald Trump’s most loyal constituencies, are increasingly worried by the Iran war as soaring fertilizer and fuel prices hammer them just as they are about to start planting crops for the year.

“Is the war going to be short term or is it going to be drug out?” asked Pam Johnson, who has a family farm with her two sons, growing corn and soybeans in northern Iowa. “The longer it goes, the harder it’s going to be on just everybody.”

Farmers are anxious about how they will pay for or even obtain fertilizer for their fields as well as the cost of fuel for tractors, combines and other farm equipment, said Johnson, a past president of the National Corn Growers Association who remains in contact with producers across the country.

The new financial strain on American agriculture driven by the war — if it persists — could have significant ramifications for the struggle over control of Congress in midterm elections later this year. Farmers are already dealing with disruptions in export markets spurred by the president’s tariffs and have been wrestling for years with higher costs for essential supplies.

That potentially gives Democrats an opening to make appeals to voters in Iowa, a state that just a decade ago was considered swingy.

Added expenses for farmers eventually also would likely accelerate food inflation, potentially exacerbating widespread public frustration with the high cost of living even as Americans also pay more for gasoline as a consequence of the war.

Fertilizer prices have surged, particularly for nitrogen-based urea that’s heavily used by corn growers concentrated in the Midwest. Spot urea prices climbed 28% in just two weeks, hitting the highest level since early in the Ukraine War. Attacks on Middle East shipping are threatening supplies, with a third of the world’s fertilizer shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the United Nations.

Diesel fuel, meanwhile, is up 33% since hostilities began through Sunday.

🔗 https://archive.ph/PPpa8

🚫🍽🥖 Middle East war risks pushing 45 million more people into acute hunger

“Beyond the immediate fallout in Lebanon, the conflict has also caused major knock-on effects on global humanitarian operations; we are really feeling the pain on this,” WFP Deputy Executive Director Carl Skau told reporters in Geneva. “Our supply chains may really be on the brink of the most severe disruption since COVID and the Ukraine war back in 2022.”

Mr. Skau said that relief operations are suffering from longer shipping times and an increase in costs as the escalating violence in the Middle East continues into its third week, sparked by Israeli and US strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks by Tehran and allied groups.

Amid ongoing hostilities – including Iranian counterstrikes against Gulf states and Israeli attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon – WFP’s shipping costs “are up 18 per cent so far and we have thousands of trucks on the roads every day,” Mr. Skau explained. “These are now running on much more expensive fuel, due to the oil prices.”

He deplored the impact of higher costs which “mean that we can buy less food or provide less cash to beneficiaries”.

The agency has been forced to cut food rations for people in famine conditions in Sudan and is only able to support one in four acutely malnourished children in Afghanistan – currently the world's worst malnutrition crisis.

Another major concern is related to the disruption of global fertilizer markets “just as sub-Saharan Africa heads into a planting season”, Mr. Skau said.

A quarter of the world’s fertilizer supply comes through the Strait of Hormuz, “which is now at a virtual standstill”, he explained.

Mr. Skau stressed that the spike in global food and fuel costs “could leave millions of families priced out of staple foods, particularly in import-dependent countries, like sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.”

“If the Middle East conflict continues through June, an additional 45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger by price rises,” he warned.

“This would take global hunger levels to an all-time record and it's a terrible, terrible prospect.

🔗 https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/03/1167147

🇺🇸🇻🇪🇲🇦 White House says US seeking fertilizer from Venezuela, Morocco

The Trump ​administration is seeking other sources of fertilizer ‌amid the ongoing Iran war's shipping constraints, including from Venezuela and possibly Morocco, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said ​on Tuesday.

"We've ... established licenses for Venezuela to produce ​more fertilizer. We've had discussions with Morocco," ⁠he said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" program, calling it "an ​insurance policy against disruption" for U.S. farmers.

"I'm not ​saying that we can eliminate what disruption there is so far, but we can minimize it," Hassett told ​CNBC in the interview.

🔗 https://www.reuters.com/world/china/white-house-says-us-seeking-fertilizer-venezuela-morocco-2026-03-17/

🇩🇪✊ Germany’s The Left party is facing a major internal crisis after adopting a motion rejecting Zionism and accusing Israel of “apartheid”, “settler colonialism” and “genocide”.

Efforts to soften the wording were voted down.

Brandenburg’s Anti-Semitism Commissioner Andreas Büttner has now quit, warning of deep divisions over Israel and anti-Semitism.

🔗 Europa

🇺🇸 Border Patrol official Gregory Bovino to retire from federal service, sources say

Over the past years, Bovino, a longtime Border Patrol official, has been serving as the chief patrol agent of the El Centro sector along the California-Mexico border. But he quickly became a leading public face of the Trump administration's aggressive crackdown on illegal immigration after he was deployed to cities across the U.S., to oversee sweeping and often controversial immigration raids.

Bovino and his team of green-uniformed Border Patrol agents were dispatched first to the Los Angeles area in June of last year. There, they conducted immigration arrest operations that sparked local outcry, including at Home Depot parking lots.

In September, Bovino and his agents were deployed to Chicago, followed by Charlotte, New Orleans and ultimately, Minneapolis. In all those cities, their operations came under scrutiny, with local residents and leaders denouncing them as heavy-handed and indiscriminate. Border Patrol agents under Bovino's command were captured on video stopping people to ask for their immigration status, including because of the person's accent.

Bovino's decision to retire comes roughly two weeks after President Trump announced he had tapped Oklahoma Republican Sen. Markwayne Mullin to replace Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who had empowered Bovino and made him a direct report.

With Markwayne Mullin, the GOP wants to soften the approach to immigration and reduce the amount of deportations ahead of the Midterms, worried about the public's perception.

🔗 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gregory-bovino-border-patrol-to-retire-sources/

🇮🇱⚔️🇮🇷 Israel is publicly urging Iranians to revolt, but privately admits protesters would likely be “slaughtered.”

Israeli officials say Iran’s regime is “not cracking” and will “fight to the end”

If protests erupt, the IRGC “has the upper hand” and would crush them.

Despite this, Israel still hopes for an uprising and wants the U.S. ready to support it.

U.S. officials now also acknowledge protesters face extreme risk from armed security forces.

Source: WaPo

📝: Considering the amount of munitions the U.S. and Israel have spent on the war up to this point, it is questionable how capable their air forces are to provide air support without running out of bombs to fire.

🔗 Clash Report

🇺🇸🇸🇾❌🇱🇧❗️ — The United States has encouraged Syrian Transitional Government to consider deploying forces into eastern Lebanon to help disarm Hezbollah, according to sources briefed on the matter.

However, Damascus is reportedly reluctant, citing fears of being drawn deeper into the regional war and inflaming sectarian tensions between Sunnis and Shias

📝 The idea was first discussed by U.S. and Syrian officials last year, said two of the sources - both Syrian officials - and two others familiar with the discussions. All spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

🇺🇸❌🇬🇧 After complaining that no NATO ally wanted to help him in the war with Iran, Trump says Keir Starmer was the only one who wanted to help but rejected his offer because America "has already won".

Trump also claimed there's "no threat" to aircraft carriers despite the fact that satellite images confirmed the USS Abraham Lincoln withdrew more than 700 km (435 miles) from the Gulf of Oman to the western half of the Arabian Sea near the border with Yemen, after one of the carrier's escorts was attacked by Iranian gunboats.

I was disappointed because Keir was willing to send two aircraft carriers after we won, because essentially there’s no threat to the aircraft carriers right now.

I like him. I think he’s a nice man, but I’m disappointed.

🔗 Clash Report (@clashreport)

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Trump on Iran:

If we left right now, it would take them 10 years to rebuild. But we’re not ready to leave yet.

We’ll be leaving in the near future—in pretty much the very near future.

📝: The U.S. no longer seeks to regime change Iran and is following the Israeli policy which is to bomb Iran to the point where it becomes a failed state like Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, stuck in perpetual sectarian violence.

🔗 Clash Report (@clashreport)