🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹🇨🇦❌🇮🇱 Five major Western nations — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom — have urged Israel to avoid a large-scale ground offensive in Lebanon. Leaders call on Hezbollah to disarm and stop attacks on civilians.

🔗 https://clashreport.com/defense/articles/western-nations-warn-israel-on-lebanon-offensive-7aarak9qill

🇻🇳✈️ Vietnam braces for flight cuts from April after China, Thailand ban jet fuel exports

Vietnamese authorities have warned the country's aviation industry to prepare for potential flight reductions from April after China and ‌Thailand halted exports of jet fuel due to the Iran war, increasing the likelihood of shortages.

Vietnam imports more than two-thirds of its jet fuel needs, with 60% coming from China and Thailand, according to documents from the aviation regulator and importers seen by Reuters.

"There are risks of jet fuel shortages for Vietnamese airlines from the beginning of April and the ​following months," the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam said in a March 9 document sent to the ministry in charge of transport.

It said ​airlines should review their plans, especially for domestic routes, and instructed airport operators to prepare additional parking space for Vietnamese ⁠carriers.

Vietnam has also seen reduced supplies from Singapore, the document showed.

In separate documents viewed by Reuters, major importers Petrolimex and Skypec said they could only ​guarantee jet fuel supplies for March. Skypec urged the regulator to restrict air transport to essential domestic routes if the conflict drags on.

🔗 https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/vietnam-braces-flight-cuts-april-after-china-thailand-ban-jet-fuel-exports-2026-03-16/?taid=69b7d4ba4a803c000183a4c8

🇯🇵 Shortage of Naphtha Threatens Supply Chain Chaos in Japan

For all the headlines about the looming shortage in crude oil, Japan faces a more immediate hit to its industrial supply chain from a little-known petroleum byproduct.

Multiple Japanese petrochemical firms have announced production cuts in recent days on worries that the Middle East conflict will strain supplies of naphtha, a vital component for plastic manufacturing.

The curbs point to a brewing crisis that could stunt production and pressure earnings across sectors from food to tech. Made by refining crude oil, naphtha’s uses range from plastic bottles to construction materials and electrical appliances. It can also be processed to produce gasoline.

“Markets are not really thinking through the cascading implications of no naphtha supply,” said Mateen Chaudhry, founder and managing director of corporate advisory firm BCMG. “It might be the canary in the coal mine, and unfortunately Japan is very exposed.”

Japan gets around 60% of its naphtha from overseas and relies on the Middle East for over 70% of those imports, according to the Japan Petrochemical Industry Association. That leaves the nation highly vulnerable to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which have driven up naphtha prices by about 66% since the Iran war began.

Japan also has very few naphtha stockpiles to fall back on. The country holds around 250 days worth of crude oil reserves, but only 20 days worth of naphtha, according to Citigroup analyst Yuta Nishiyama. Even the release of those reserves “does not warrant immediate optimism for the petrochemical industry” as most naphtha would likely be prioritized for gasoline, Nishiyama wrote in a note.

Japan’s Asian neighbors, including South Korea, also depend heavily on Middle Eastern naphtha imports. The US is less exposed because much of its petrochemical industry uses ethane as an alternative.

Tokyo-based oil refiner Idemitsu Kosan Co. became the latest Japanese firm to announce a cut in its production on Monday in anticipation of a drop in naphtha supplies. The company will curb output of ethylene, which is made using naphtha, at its Chiba and Tokuyama plants, a representative told Bloomberg.

Idemitsu joins Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corp., Mitsui Chemicals Inc. and Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., which announced similar measures last week. Just two weeks into the Iran war, six out of Japan’s 12 ethylene plants have already started reducing output.

🔗 https://archive.ph/46MWL

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 WSJ: Trump Knew the Risk of Iran Blocking the Strait of Hormuz. He Still Went to War.

The president told his White House team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the strait, the world’s most vital shipping lane

Before the U.S. went to war, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told President Trump that an American attack could prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Caine said in several briefings that U.S. officials had long believed Iran would deploy mines, drones and missiles to close the world’s most vital shipping lane, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.

Trump acknowledged the risk, these people said, but moved forward with the most consequential foreign-policy decision of his two presidencies. He told his team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the strait—and even if Iran tried, the U.S. military could handle it.

Now, two weeks into the war, Iran’s leaders have refused to back down, and the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as Tehran’s most potent leverage point.

The U.S. operation is costing billions of dollars a week. More broadly, the growing risk of a widening and drawn-out war threatens the American economy, raising warnings of stagflation, a quagmire of stagnant growth and high inflation.

Behind Trump’s rationale for war was a deep confidence in the capabilities of the U.S. military to deliver a swift, decisive victory, according to administration officials and others familiar with the matter. The president’s trust in Caine was buoyed by the successful U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites last year and the January raid that captured Venezuela’s autocratic leader, Nicolás Maduro.

The White House said Trump understood the risks of launching the war, but was determined to eliminate the national security threat posed by Iran. Before the president approved the operation, he and his advisers discussed options to force the reopening of the strait and use the U.S. Navy to escort tankers through the waterway, the people said.

With the strait nearly closed, the Pentagon is now concerned that any American warships escorting tankers through the strait would be targets unless the U.S. destroys Iranian vessels and coastal defense weapons, including drones and missiles.

📝: Pentagon is preemptively throwing Trump under the bus for when the American public demands accountability.

🔗 https://archive.ph/pK6Mu

🇸🇦🇦🇪🇧🇭🇰🇼🙏🇺🇸 Gulf countries are begging the U.S. to keep bombing Iran to the point where it can never close the Strait of Hormuz again

While in public, the GCC claimed neutrality or even opposition to the war, behind the scenes, GCC diplomats are begging their ally, the U.S, to ramp up its attacks against Iran believing that if the war stops now, Iran will still retain the capabilities to attack the oil infrastructure of the GCC in the future.

The worst damage for all of them is the image of stability that was completely shattered and ruined the reputation of the region as a safe haven for business and investment.

Meanwhile, the U.S. keeps pressuring GCC countries to enter the war with Iran which they keep refusing because the U.S. has reached its limit in terms of its capabilities to strike Iran.

📝If in the 4 days of the invasion, CENTCOM claimed to have struck 3.000 targets inside Iran, nearly three weeks into this war, the number of strikes reached only 6.000 and CENTCOM did not give an update yesterday on how many targets have been hit, which shows the intensity of operations decreasing significantly, but not surprising considering the low amount of munitions available at the start of the war and that these stockpiles were used up in the first week (data is available only for the first 96 hours !!)

The GCC countries are finding out the hard way how America treats its vassals allies. Georgia, Republic of Afghanistan, Ukraine, Rojava/AANES, Republic of China in 1946-1949, South Vietnam, Britain (post WW2), France (post WW2), Rhodesia, South Africa were examples of what's going to happen all American allies. When they need their suzerain, they will be abandoned and left to fend for themselves and they may or may not survive.

@CIG_telegram

🇪🇺🛢 The Strait of Hormuz is much more important for the economies of Europe than it is for the U.S.

The EU would not have been this exposed to a cessation of the transit of oil and LNG through the Hormuz, but its decision to cut itself off from Russian oil and gas, also at the behest of the U.S, and make it compete with the economies of East Asia, will throw the EU into an energy crisis worse than what it experienced in 2022.

@CIG_telegram

🇵🇰⚔️🇦🇫 "At least 400 people were killed and 250 injured in an air strike by Pakistan on a drug rehabilitation hospital in ​Kabul, a spokesman of the Afghan Taliban government said on Tuesday, a sharp escalation in the conflict between the neighbours"

🔗 https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/afghan-taliban-says-400-killed-250-injured-pakistan-air-strike-kabul-hospital-2026-03-17/

🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸 The U.S. lost 10% of its MQ-9 Reaper fleet since late 2023 — USAF's magazine

Use of the Reapers has helped ensure manned U.S. fighters haven’t been shot down over hostile territory, and the losses demonstrate Iran has some ability to damage airborne threats. U.S. Central Command, which is leading the campaign, confirmed MQ-9s are operating as part of Operation Epic Fury, but declined comment on the shoot-downs or the specific role the Reapers are playing.

The Air Force referred questions to CENTCOM. CBS News reported March 9 that 11 MQ-9s had been lost during operations against Iran, citing two U.S. officials.

Houthi rebels in Yemen shot down at least half a dozen MQ-9s last year, and over a dozen Reapers were lost to the Houthis since late 2023. Combined with losses in Iran, that means the Air Force may have lost as much as 10 percent of its Reaper fleet.

📝: The article was published on March 11th and does not take into account all the other MQ-9 Reapers lost since.

🔗 https://www.airandspaceforces.com/mq-9s-over-iran-striking-and-finding-targets-but-taking-some-losses/

🇴🇲🛢 Oman crude oil price index rises to more than $173 per barrel. The highest in history.

🔗 Attaqa News

🇮🇶🇮🇷 Reuters Report:

Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani said this morning (Tuesday) that negotiations are being held with Iran to allow certain oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

@CIG_telegram

🇮🇷 Reza Pahlavi’s supporters in Iran are turning against him

The son of Iran’s last monarch has encouraged protesters to risk their lives and stayed silent on civilians killed by the US and Israel

Two weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, a growing number of Iranians who saw Reza Pahlavi as an alternative to the ruling establishment say they are losing faith in the exiled opposition figure.

For some, the turning point came before the war broke out, when Pahlavi urged Iranians to rise up against their rulers despite the dangers of a ferocious crackdown.

For others, it is his latest call for demonstrations during the traditional Persian festival of Chaharshanbe Suri, set to be held on Tuesday.

Majid, a 21-year-old student in Tehran, says he no longer sees Pahlavi as a leader.

During the January protests, Majid says he watched a close friend die after security forces opened fire.

“My friend was shot right in front of my eyes,” he said quietly. “I still cannot process it.”

While he blames the Iranian authorities for the killing, he also believes opposition figures raised expectations that never materialised.

“Now he tells people to go celebrate in the streets,” Majid said. “Does he even know what life is like here? People go to sleep not knowing if they will wake up alive in the morning.

“We are afraid every time we step outside that another air strike might hit somewhere nearby. And in this situation he says we should celebrate?” he added.

Pahlavi, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump have all been accused of misleading the Iranian public.

During the January protests, which were sparked by economic woes and spiralled into calls for the fall of the Islamic Republic, the three men hinted that help was on the way for demonstrators.

Yet, other than rumours of Israeli agents encouraging and even arming demonstrators on the ground, the protesters were left high and dry as the security forces moved in.

🔗 https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/reza-pahlavis-supporters-iran-are-turning-against-him

🇰🇷🛢 South Korean refiners won't last much longer.

I just met with their strategy and procurement heads, and one of them mentioned they only have three weeks of feedstock left.

Even if the SK government releases the SPR, it’s nothing more than a stopgap measure. Run cuts are now inevitable.

Given that South Korean refiners are heavily export-oriented, this will only accelerate the vicious cycle in the global refined product mkt.

There’s a lot of noise out here, but the only real solution is reopening the Strait of Hormuz. We don’t have much time before the supply chain completely falls apart.

All I’m seeing are sensational headlines, not any actual signs of de-escalation.

🔗 CrudeOil231

🇱🇰🛢 Sri Lanka declares Wednesdays off as Asian countries try to conserve fuel

🔗 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g5n58rlnzo

🇺🇸 Trump's Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, resigned:

"I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby."

🔗 Joe Kent