🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 U.S. war planners significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. military strikes while planning for war, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter who spoke to CNN.

Top officials with the Trump Administration acknowledged to lawmakers during recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in response to strikes, because they believed that a closure would hurt Iran more than the United States.

🔗 Europa

✈️🛢 Only 3 U.S. Airlines Can Remain Profitable at Current Oil Prices

Wall Street analysts are warning that U.S. airlines could face a painful earnings squeeze as oil prices surge amid the escalating war with Iran. Crude prices jumped over 9% on Thursday as the conflict rattled energy markets and heightened fears of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Many U.S. carriers largely abandoned fuel hedging in recent years, leaving them far more exposed to sudden price spikes and raising the prospect that only a handful of airlines can remain profitable at current oil prices.

Airlines and oil producers typically rely on hedging strategies to manage extreme oil price volatility. Airlines seek predictable fuel costs, while producers aim to stabilize revenue. Fuel accounts for roughly 15% or more of airline operating expenses, making price swings particularly damaging. By using futures, swaps, or options, carriers can lock in prices and shield themselves from sudden spikes that can quickly erode profitability. Airlines often hedge up to two-thirds of expected fuel consumption about six months in advance, with European carriers generally taking a more aggressive approach.

According to UBS analyst Atul Maheswari, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and Southwest Airlines are the only U.S. airlines that can generate even "meagre profits" if fuel prices remain at or above $4 a gallon.

🔗 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Only-3-US-Airlines-Can-Remain-Profitable-at-Current-Oil-Prices.html

🇮🇷⚔️🇹🇷🇺🇸 An Iranian Ballistic Missile reportedly targeted the Incirlik Airbase, in Adana, Turkey.

The U.S. keeps at least 50 tactical nuclear weapons at Incirlik, likely being B61 thermonuclear gravity bombs.

🔗 MenchOsint (@MenchOsint)

🛢 COLUMN: The White House is running out of ways to curb rising oil prices.

Despite President Donald Trump’s blustering that America benefits when oil prices surge, crunch time is fast approaching for both the war and the energy market. He either ends the conflict quickly, or sky-high energy costs will force him to do so. The oil market may not have the same fearsome reputation as the bond market but, trust me, it can be equally savage in twisting a politician’s arm.

This week, the White House earned some breathing space thanks to the release of emergency reserves, plus the use of pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. But the extra time is measured in days, rather than weeks. Certainly, Trump does not have months.

My working assumption is that the oil market will add $3 to $6 a barrel to the headline price for every day — every single day — that the war continues. Monday to Friday, that’s $15-$30. It’s bearable for another week, perhaps two, but any longer and the world will start to incur serious economic damage through soaring energy costs. Short of a very risky — and possibly illegal — intervention in the oil futures market, the White House doesn’t have more meaningful tools to wield to bring energy prices down.

Do I believe the Trump administration is seriously thinking about interfering with the futures market? You bet. Even the Biden administration considered it in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, before realizing it was too hazardous and unlikely to succeed.
The White House has already thrown everything it can at the problem. Sure, it can ask Congress to scrap federal fuel taxes, as Biden did in 2022. But that would take time — and may ultimately not win sufficient votes. US states, particularly those under Republican control, may also announce their own fuel-tax holidays, as some Democratic states did three years ago.

Trump can waive some environmental rules for gasoline and diesel too. All those measures would buy time at home. But, internationally, the damage from rising prices would continue. Trump, cornered, may try another tool: an export ban on US oil and refined products. That would certainly crash domestic prices, but send global ones soaring. It would be a tremendous mistake.

Ultimately, the only durable solution is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Here, the US seems to have realized that oil tankers won’t sail again until the hostilities end, after wasting a lot of time last week trying to solve a non-existent insurance problem. And, of course, Iran has a say in when and how any ceasefire, whether formal or tacit, starts. Tehran may not be willing to acquiesce.

🔗 https://archive.ph/hH2su

🇪🇺🇮🇷 EU fears Iran war will put new migration rules to the test

Attempts to reform EU migration rules date back to the 2015 refugee crisis, but there are doubts about how the new rules will fare under new pressure.

The EU is braced for a wave of refugees fleeing the war in Iran, according to four national migration ministers, and is hoping that the rules it spent a decade working on will be up to the challenge.

More than a million people sought asylum in Europe in 2015, many of them fleeing civil war in Syria, and Europe’s scramble to respond to it exposed deep divisions in the bloc. In its wake, the EU spent years in tough negotiations on reforming its migration policy by allowing migrants to be dispersed more evenly among countries and accelerating deportations of failed asylum-seekers.

Just weeks before those rules come into force, the escalating violence in the Middle East has raised the possibility of an early stress test.

The EU “cannot overlook the possibility of a new refugee crisis,” said Nicholas Ioannides, deputy migration minister of Cyprus, the EU country that’s closest to the Middle East.

In addition to the hundreds of people who have been killed, hundreds of thousands have been forced out of their homes, with IOM’s Regional Director for the Middle East Othman Belbeisi saying Thursday that Lebanon is now nearing one million displaced people.

For the time being, there’s no sign of large numbers of people fleeing to Europe to escape the violence, according to the U.N. migration agency (IOM) — but in a region long battered by conflicts, the seeds for a large-scale displacement are there, with some 19 million displaced people in the Middle East before the war even began.

In a report written before the war, the EU’s agency for asylum warned that in Iran, a country of 90 million, “even partial destabilization could generate refugee movements of an unprecedented magnitude.”

🔗 https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-fears-iran-war-will-put-new-migration-rules-to-the-test/

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 The crew of the KC-135R Stratotanker that crashed over northern Iraq last night perished with the plane.

The last two airmen were found dead.

This puts the number of U.S. casualties at 14 for the US-Israel-Iran War.

@CIG_telegram

🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸 Hegseth: “The only thing prohibiting transit in [Hormuz] right now is Iran shooting at shipping.”

“It is open for transit should Iran not do that”

🔗 OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical)

🇺🇸❌🇮🇷 - The Pentagon is moving a 5000-strong Marine expeditionary unit and the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli from Japan to the Middle East to support the Iran Operation, according to WSJ.

🇨🇺💬🇺🇸 — Cuban dictator Díaz-Canel confirmed that Cuban officials have held talks with the U.S. government; The dialogue takes place after Donald Trump issued an ultimatum demanding that the island's regime stop the political persecution.

❗️ Key points from the statements:

➡️ The exchange has been respectful and seeks to identify bilateral problems and find solutions.

➡️ Cuba has reiterated its willingness to carry out actions for the benefit of both peoples.

➡️ The dialogue also seeks to move away from confrontation.

➡️ The willingness to move the process forward on the basis of equality and self-determination was made clear.

🇸🇰 Slovakia’s Top Fertilizer Plant Cuts Output as Gas Soars

Slovakia’s largest fertilizer producer said it’s curbing ammonia output after natural gas prices surged, in another sign that the Middle East conflict is starting to hit the industry in Europe.

Duslo AS has cut ammonia production to the “technical minimum,” while continuing to produce fertilizer, according to Chief Executive Officer Pavel Hanus. The company has the capacity to produce 1,600 tons of ammonia a day.

“We will take measures depending on how the situation develops and how long this unwanted state of affairs persists,” Hanus said in an email.

🔗 https://archive.ph/UTmOB