Trump tried to calm markets yesterday with his statement about the war being complete. Since that's clearly not the case, he now has to throw everything at keeping the Strait open.

The fact is Iran has the means to keep the Strait closed for many months, which would mean a global recession and a bloodbath for the GOP in midterms and a disaster for Vance/Rubio in 2028.

Iran has a stockpile of tens of thousands of Shahed drones and can manufacture thousands more, every month. Lobbing more bombs at the country is will do little to change this dynamic, especially when the timeline to avoid economic catastrophe is mere months.

For years now, people have celebrated Trump's diplomatic routine of hitting a country hard, threatening them with total destruction, then quickly reaching a mediated solution that secures concessions before things spin out of control. But this time may be different. Trump has

1. Killed the man Iranians consider the head of their religion

2. Overseen the bombing of a school that killed 160+ children

3. Negotiated in bad faith to buy time for a sneak attack with Israel

4. Demanded unconditional surrender and threatened destruction of the Iranian nation

The US thought the Iran regime would be weakened internally the more it was attacked externally, but after these humiliations, the legitimacy of Khamenei's successors rests on them delivering a victory.

Iran has no choice but to impose real pain on the US and establish deterrence, because the US has shown this cycle will repeat again and again until it becomes too costly to be considered by another administration.

This operation is going to be looked back on as a complete disaster.

📡🇺🇸❌🇮🇷 - Eviction Notice EP: 34 Party like its not 1973

Louis and Doomernat continue their coverage of the ongoing “Ramadan War” with Iran, with particular coverage of the proxy actors at play and the economic implications of Hormuz being closed.

🔗 Doomernat

🇸🇦🇰🇼🇦🇪 🛢️- Gulf states have lowered their collective oil production by ~6.7 mbpd

To put this in perspective:

The peak feared Russian supply loss, which pushed oil prices to $130, was ~2 mbpd.

This production loss is already ~3× larger.

🔗 Lukas Ekwueme

🇺🇸🇮🇱❌🇮🇷 - Map of verified strikes shows the scale of the US-Israel campaign in Iran: about 1,460 targets hit since 28 February. Roughly 23% of strikes are around Tehran, while about 38% are concentrated near the Iraq border, highlighting key pressure zones across the country.

🔗 Mintel World

‼️🇮🇷❌🇦🇪 - The hit vs. intercept rate for ballistic missiles and drone attacks since Feb. 28 for the UAE through today. Today is not like prior days.

Small numbers here but some signs the UAE's intercept rate is decreasing and that the air defense network is fraying. 25% of Iranian drones made it through today which is an all-time high since the onset of hostilities. (Previous high was 10% of drones hitting UAE on March 3.)

🔗 Christopher Clary