📈 $1,000,000,000 USDT just minted and transferred to Bitfinex.

🔗 Ash Crypto

🇯🇵 Here is what's going on with Japan's massive stimulus package and why everyone's freaking out about it right now.

The timing and scale of this is genuinely significant and there are real implications for global markets and the yen that go way beyond just Japan (save this).

Japan just approved a ¥21.3 trillion economic stimulus package, the biggest since covid to help households deal with rising costs and try to jumpstart their economy after it shrank 1.8% in Q3. The package includes ¥17.7 trillion in fresh spending through an extra budget plus ¥2.7 trillion in tax cuts. When you add in local government spending and private sector investments the total impact balloons to ¥42.8 trillion. That's substantially bigger than last year's ¥39 trillion package.​

The government is throwing money at everything, ¥20,000 cash handouts per child subsidies for electricity and gas bills (about ¥7,000 per household over three months), rice vouchers, scrapping the provisional gasoline tax, and raising the tax free income threshold. They're also pumping billions into strategic sectors like AI, semiconductors, and shipbuilding. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi who just took office last month is going full fiscal dove mode and markets are not exactly thrilled about it.​

Here's where it gets messy. Japans debt is already over twice the size of its economy, literally the worst among developed nations. This massive spending spree means they need to issue even more government bonds, probably exceeding the ¥6.69 trillion they borrowed last year. That's spooked bond markets hard. Japanese government bonds yields have hit record highs. And the yen? It's gotten crushed, hitting 10 month lows around 157 per dollar.​

So what does this all mean? In the short term, Japan's stimulus is creating chaos instead of clarity. Bond vigilantes are punishing Japan for fiscal recklessness by selling JGBs and yen. The market is worried about Japan's deteriorating fiscal health and what happens when you have massive government spending combined with potential central bank tightening. That uncertainty is bleeding into global risk assets across the board.​

The implications are pretty significant. If Japan's fiscal situation continues to deteriorate and they keep issuing bonds at this pace, it could force the Bank of Japan's hand on rate hikes sooner than expected. That would strengthen the yen and potentially trigger selloffs across equities and bonds in the US. We saw a preview of this in August 2024 when the BOJ unexpectedly raised rates and triggered a global market freakout with the Nikkei dropping 12% in one day.

On the flip side if the stimulus actually works and injects enough liquidity into the system without triggering a BOJ rate hike, it could eventually be positive for risk assets as yen weakness drives capital into alternative investments. But that's the optimistic case and depends on a lot of things going right namely the BOJ staying accommodative while fiscal expansion does its job.

🔗 Stock Market News

🇯🇵 Japan's government says it may "intervene" before the Japanese Yen to US Dollar ratio reaches 160.

Over the last 2 months, the Yen has gone from 145 to 157 as a $110B+ stimulus package is coming.

We are ~2% away from "intervention."

🔗 Kobeissi Letter

📉 BlackRock just deferred fees on a private-credit fund because it failed a collateralization test.

But sure… “nothing to see here.”

Totally normal stuff. Happens every day. Super healthy market.

Feels a lot like 2007, but go ahead and keep telling yourself these private-credit hiccups don’t matter.

What could possibly go wrong?

📝: Private credit is this cycle’s subprime mortgage. This is what will bring the markets down

🔗 Todd Stankiewicz

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russian forces aren't just hitting Ukraine's energy grid - they're dismantling it node by node. New analysis by Texty reveals a three-month campaign targeting the precise infrastructure that keeps electricity flowing when demand spikes.

Shahed drones hit substations that route power to border cities like Chernihiv and Sumy. Iskander missiles destroy the thermal and hydroelectric plants that balance the grid during peak hours. Strategic coal mines in Pavlohrad and gas fields across Poltava and Kharkiv oblasts get struck repeatedly, while compressor stations that would allow Ukraine to import replacement supplies go offline.

Russia is attacking the flexibility built into Ukraine's energy system - the capacity to shift power when one region needs more, the backup generation that kicks in during cold snaps, the infrastructure that lets operators compensate for damage elsewhere. The Dnipro hydroelectric cascade, Trypilska TPP, Zmiivska TPP - all hit before the heating season begins.

This isn't just about reducing Ukraine's total energy capacity. Russia is systematically eliminating the maneuverability that lets Ukraine's grid survive winter under attack. It’s carefully planned.

🔗 https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/11/20/russian-strikes-on-ukraines-energy-grid-follow-systematic-pattern/

🇺🇸 The US is losing blue-collar jobs for the first time since the pandemic—year-on-year job losses have hit 59k as manufacturing industries lose jobs at a rapid pace while growth in construction & transportation has nearly zeroed out

🔗 Joey Politano

🇺🇦❌🇺🇸 Ukraine's representative at the United Nations has rejected the Trump peace plan.

Here is the summary:

1) We'll make no concessions and nothing is up for negotiation
2) We need your money
3) The only way this ends is if you give us money and we win

🔗 Wall Street Mav

🇺🇸🌎 Super Hornets from the Ford carrier strike group were spotted operating off the northern coast of Venezuela today - the first time with transponders on

Approx. 20% of the deployed U.S. Navy fleet is now in SOUTHCOM

🔗 Ian Ellis

🇪🇺🇨🇳 The European car industry is going the way of Nokia in the cellphone industry.

EU carmakers currently have zero to very little foothold in the electrification or even hybridization technologies.

They have no competitive AI industry that's at the core of autonomous driving.

The geopolitical blunder of EU policy makers is making it worse. They antagonized China, which is a major component of EU automotive industry, both in market and manufacturing.

They are basically at war with Russia, which provided the EU with cheap energy and resources.

And yet, the EU politicians are STILL barking at China for no reason, despite their dire situation.

When the EU car industry implodes, they will just be a collection of failed states with a ton of recent migrants. Good luck, you people are going to need it.

🔗 Zhao daShuai

📉 Bitcoin falls below $81,000 for the first time since April 11th, now down -36% in 46 days.

Over $1.5 BILLION worth of levered positions have been liquidated in 4 hours.

🔗 Kobeissi Letter