📉📈 We really did it.

We took a growing US manufacturing economy, declared it broken, started a trade war, and ... broke US manufacturing.

In last 48 hours:

- Philly Fed Survey: "New orders fell sharply, from 8.7 in March to -34.2, its lowest reading since April 2020"

- NY Fed Survey: Expected orders and shipments plunging

Again, this is a policy to revive US manufacturing.

🔗 Derek Thompson

🇸🇴 Al Shabaab captured two key areas in central Somalia as it continues to gain momentum.

Al Shabaab's gains have set conditions to undo the US-backed Somali counterterrorism offensive in 2022 and pressure the remaining government-controlled areas in central Somalia.

Al Shabaab captured the Aboorey/Yasooman area in Hiraan region and Adan Yabal—a district capital in the Middle Shabelle region—on April 16.

These two critical areas will help al Shabaab reconnect its territory in central Somalia to its center of gravity in southern Somalia.

Somali forces in 2022 launched an offensive that disrupted al Shabaab’s ground lines of communication between central and southern Somalia by clearing al Shabaab from the eastern halves of Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions east of the Shabelle River.

Al Shabaab has waged an offensive in central Somalia throughout 2025 to overturn these losses.

The group likely reestablished a support zone in the Adale district of Middle Shabelle that allowed it to reinforce and resupply its forces in central Somalia.

Somali forces have performed poorly in some areas, and the scope of al Shabaab’s offensive has likely overstretched Somalia’s international partner-provided air support.

Al Shabaab undoing the 2022 counterterrorism offensive would be a strategic setback for the Somali Federal Government.

Such a loss would undermine domestic and international belief in the SFG's ability to retake its national territory from al Shabaab.

Al Shabaab opened a second front south of Mogadishu in March and has captured several operationally key towns.

Al Shabaab is highly unlikely to launch an offensive on Mogadishu to seize power in the short term, despite its gains around the capital.

Al Shabaab's gains in central & southern Somalia will allow the group to destabilize Mogadishu and undermine the legitimacy of the SFG.

The group can use its gains to launch more high-visibility attacks, support shadow governance efforts, and pressure the Mogadishu economy.

🔗 Critical Threats