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Prediction marketes giving 67% odds of $SOL hitting $200 this month
BUT WAIT
Now realizing why these crypto prediction market odds are so often so far off
These betters aren’t putting any real effort into trying to predict the future prices
No
Bet these betters are simply doing arbitrage against the crypto options markets
I.e. taking a probability-of-touch model, assuming the classic Black-Scholes model of Brownian Motion, inputing current options info, outputting implied odds,
and then you do arbitrage between the crypto options markets and these prediction market prices, if the two sufficiently differ
Problem?
Yes, big problem
Those methods have awful success rates, all kinds of things distort options prices from being good predictions of future price touching
These betters likely only do this at all because it’s a guaranteed win for them
Yeah, bet that solves the mystery
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
BUT WAIT
Now realizing why these crypto prediction market odds are so often so far off
These betters aren’t putting any real effort into trying to predict the future prices
No
Bet these betters are simply doing arbitrage against the crypto options markets
I.e. taking a probability-of-touch model, assuming the classic Black-Scholes model of Brownian Motion, inputing current options info, outputting implied odds,
and then you do arbitrage between the crypto options markets and these prediction market prices, if the two sufficiently differ
Problem?
Yes, big problem
Those methods have awful success rates, all kinds of things distort options prices from being good predictions of future price touching
These betters likely only do this at all because it’s a guaranteed win for them
Yeah, bet that solves the mystery
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
Forwarded from DoomPosting
Forwarded from DoomPosting
$BTC continuing to fly upward out after that dump
$BTC & $ETH did too at first,
…but both now looking like they’re anticipating that $BTC has over-corrected in the short term…
We’ll see
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
$BTC & $ETH did too at first,
…but both now looking like they’re anticipating that $BTC has over-corrected in the short term…
We’ll see
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
Forwarded from DoomPosting
Checking in on $XRP memes
Bad, pretty bad, doing much worse than $SOL & $ETH memecoins are rn
What does that tell me?
Tells me that $XRP whales are expecting $XRP to tank hard soon, exactly as it did in its last 2 spikes
— And you definitely don’t want to be holding memecoins on a platform whose coin is about to tank
Memecoins are for when a platform’s token has recently surged, and that price is expected to roughly hold if not grow, but not grow as hugely as at the start of the surge
— so rotation to memecoins & other new coins, where huge growth is still happening, happens after the majors surge
But
This rotation doesn’t happen at all if it’s expected that the major coin will simply totally collapse
You don’t want to be heavy on memes on a platform whose coin totally collapses
— Which feels like exactly what the market is anticipating with $XRP
$XPR market expecting $XRP spike to be short-lived, soon collapse, it seems
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
Bad, pretty bad, doing much worse than $SOL & $ETH memecoins are rn
What does that tell me?
Tells me that $XRP whales are expecting $XRP to tank hard soon, exactly as it did in its last 2 spikes
— And you definitely don’t want to be holding memecoins on a platform whose coin is about to tank
Memecoins are for when a platform’s token has recently surged, and that price is expected to roughly hold if not grow, but not grow as hugely as at the start of the surge
— so rotation to memecoins & other new coins, where huge growth is still happening, happens after the majors surge
But
This rotation doesn’t happen at all if it’s expected that the major coin will simply totally collapse
You don’t want to be heavy on memes on a platform whose coin totally collapses
— Which feels like exactly what the market is anticipating with $XRP
$XPR market expecting $XRP spike to be short-lived, soon collapse, it seems
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
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Forwarded from DoomPosting
My latest memecoin launch success rate charts
Also did cactus style survival plots, which can give you more immediate estimates of current market conditions, without having to wait for a delay to measure success
— but this one gives you a clearer picture of how memecoin launch success relates to market conditions in general
= Massively improved success rates & ROIs soon after big surges, and the bigger the surge the bigger that increase
Wave analogy theory — when it comes to new launches, timing the market really does matter
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
Also did cactus style survival plots, which can give you more immediate estimates of current market conditions, without having to wait for a delay to measure success
— but this one gives you a clearer picture of how memecoin launch success relates to market conditions in general
= Massively improved success rates & ROIs soon after big surges, and the bigger the surge the bigger that increase
Wave analogy theory — when it comes to new launches, timing the market really does matter
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
Forwarded from DoomPosting
Forwarded from DoomPosting
Longish-term downward slide of $SOL/$BTC over past few days
IIRC often tends to lead up to dumps…
Will see later if I can chart the accuracy of such SOL/BTC-based predictions
There’s some trickiness in that it’s very unclear the timespan over which such “predictions” by the SOL/BTC price apply, even if totally real, it’s likely that the timespan is non-stationary, varying over time, and predicting over multiple timeframes at once.
Will think about it
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
IIRC often tends to lead up to dumps…
Will see later if I can chart the accuracy of such SOL/BTC-based predictions
There’s some trickiness in that it’s very unclear the timespan over which such “predictions” by the SOL/BTC price apply, even if totally real, it’s likely that the timespan is non-stationary, varying over time, and predicting over multiple timeframes at once.
Will think about it
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶