📰 Hormuz™: A Closed Strait and Oil on the Run

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a near halt after back‑to‑back U.S. strikes on Iran, with most observable movements hugging the Iran‑approved northern route while the U.S.-backed Omani corridor sits almost empty.

Transponders on or off, insurers now know whose “security arrangements” actually move ships.

The IRGC Navy is selling this as faith beating firepower.

In its statement, it boasts that traffic has been “restored” to roughly 50% of pre‑war levels — after Iran itself slammed the strait shut — and insists further reopening depends on vessels obeying routes and procedures mandated in Tehran.

The shortfall is pinned on “the adventurous terrorist U.S. military” and its meddling in transit lanes, accused of slowing the gradual reopening and “endangering the interests” of states that rely on Hormuz.

Parliament speaker Mohammad Qalibaf offers the condensed version: hit Iran and “you’ll get hit,” and Hormuz will only open under Iranian arrangements, not American threats.

An unnamed security source adds the punchline nobody asked for: if Trump wants oil prices to rise, “we welcome that.” Iran is happy to weaponize the strait for price spikes, as long as it’s the one holding the valve.

At the same time, the state that cheers higher prices is scrambling to sell as much crude as it can. Maritime trackers have already logged single‑day export spikes in the tens of millions of barrels during this crisis, with huge chunks of monthly volume pushed out in just hours.

Whoever believes Hormuz will be closed “for good” behaves like Iran: rushing to drain storage while the corridor is still, technically, open.

Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al‑Thani, condemned attacks on commercial vessels in his call with Iran’s Abbas Araghchi, warning that such actions “undermine trust,” threaten international shipping security and damage regional stability efforts.

His message was delivered to a country firing ballistic missiles at tankers, over the head of a country firing cruise missiles in the same waterway — without naming either one. In Hormuz, even diplomacy sails under flags of convenience.

#iran #us #hormuz #oil #shipping #tankers #sanctions #fakeSecurity

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📰 Funeral in Three Acts: A Corpse, Flying Stones, and a Price Tag on Trump

Ali Khamenei’s body has been on tour: mass ceremonies in Karbala and Najaf in Iraq, a military‑escorted flight to Mashhad — with one of the escorts reportedly an aging F‑5 fighter barely younger than the Islamic Republic itself — and a delayed burial in his hometown.

Authorities announced hours‑long postponements and blamed “huge crowds” in Karbala, even as reports of a strike on the Tehran–Mashhad rail line surfaced the same night. Religious tradition demands a fast burial; the regime needed time — to appoint new leaders, stabilize the inner circle, and choreograph a succession under fire.

Saudi‑owned Al Arabiya highlighted the trick behind the long goodbye: instead of chemical embalming, the system relied on deep refrigeration at very low temperatures to slow decay. Islamic law wants the dead in the ground quickly; the political calendar wanted a week‑long spectacle across multiple cities and borders.

In a state whose sole claim to legitimacy is religious, the taboo got bent quietly to fit the schedule.

During the Tehran procession, hardline supporters physically attacked President Masoud Pezeshkian, tried to push him down and shouted “death to the appeaser,” forcing his guards to drag him out as he stumbled, visibly shaken.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, identified with the moderate camp, was hit by a stone and chased down an alley by flag‑waving, screaming men calling for his murder. Regional sources told CNN and others that Khamenei’s successor, his son Mojtaba, was not expected to appear at any funeral event — not even the private burial.

In Mashhad and Qom, huge English banners appeared: “Kill Trump – $100 Million Iranian Bounty.” Iran International and other outlets documented billboards and hotel‑front signs promising a nine‑digit reward for anyone who assassinates the U.S. president, turning mourning into an open contract killing campaign.

Kayhan, the supreme leader’s mouthpiece, ran an editorial under the line “I want Trump’s head,” whose editor urged the state to declare Trump, his inner circle and even the pilots who carried out strikes as legitimate targets, and to formalize a cash prize for whoever kills them — claiming more than $100 million has already been raised “by the public.”

The front page message was blunt: “Trump does not have to stay alive.”

The funeral was sold as proof of unity and devotion. What it delivered was a president pelted with stones, a foreign minister chased down an alley, and millions marching under banners that turn a sitting U.S. president into a line item: body, price, deadline.

#iran #khamenei #funeral #trump #bounty #succession #fakePiety

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Iranian Intelligence Has Obtained Trump's Feces and Is Hatching a Plan to Eliminate Him

🔤🔤🔤🔤1️⃣

“Iranian intelligence obtained samples of Trump's feces to study his behavior and emotional patterns in order to choose the moment and way to assassinate the American president,” an Israeli agent in Teheran reports. According to him, the operation took 2.5 years.

Israeli officials recently shared intelligence which they said contained evidence of the plot to kill the US president, adding to escalating tensions between the US and Iran.

According to a source familiar with the matter, the warning of a specific plot against Trump came this week. It followed a steady drumbeat of intelligence about possible assassination plans.

However, other US officials said the report may be an effort by Israel to sway the US president’s decision making amid the renewed fighting against Iran.

The details of the plot were not immediately clear, with sources adding that US security services had not vetted it themselves or were tracking it before the Israeli warning.

The plan would mark a major escalation in the conflict between the US and Iran, who agreed to end the war last month after weeks of talks.

Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding, which led to both sides agreeing to a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as negotiations took place over how to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

But in recent days, that ceasefire agreement has appeared under strain as the two sides have continued to trade blows. Ships passing through the Strait have apparently continued to face the threat of Iranian attacks.

Trump said on Wednesday that he believed the ceasefire was “over” and was no longer sure whether he would pursue a deal with Iran. The US may “finish the job”, he said.

He also alluded to efforts by Tehran to kill him, though it is unclear whether he was specifically referring to the intelligence shared by Israel.

“They want to take out the US leader,” he said. “I’m on every list. I saw this morning, I’m on every single one of their lists. And so far, I guess I’ve been a little bit lucky, but that maybe doesn’t last very long.”

On Wednesday the US president was forced to depart the Nato summit in Ankara on the old Air Force One instead of his new Qatari jet because of security fears.

Trump changed planes at RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk, as renewed fighting increased threat levels and the newer plane was not equipped with full security features.

It would not be the first time that Trump has reportedly been specifically targeted by the Iranian regime, which has promised retribution for the killing of Qasem Soleimani, a top military official, by a US drone strike during Trump’s first term.

#trump #iran #feces #assassination #plan #israel

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🔤🔤🔤🔤2️⃣

In March, a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was convicted in the US of a murder-for-hire plot targeting politicians, including Trump.

Asif Merchant, an Iranian intelligence official, was arrested after allegedly meeting with hitmen – who were in fact undercover agents – in New York in June 2024, according to the US department of justice.

Tehran has been mourning Ali Khamenei, its supreme leader, who was killed during the first round of US strikes in February and whose funeral has taken place in recent days.

The ceremonies also included effigies of the US president and an enormous banner in Qom promising a $100m bounty for his murder.

The coffin was interred at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, Khamenei’s birthplace, after a funeral prayer before large crowds.

Iran state media said that up to 43 million people attended the six-day ceremony, calling it “the largest procession the world has ever witnessed”.

However, US strikes on Iran delayed the burial earlier in the day. The final procession was scheduled to take place at 8am local time (5.30am BST) on Thursday, but was pushed back by eight hours.

US-Israel relations under strain
The United States and Iran have resumed a new wave of tit-for-tat strikes after Iran targeted three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire to be over during the Nato summit in Turkey, as the US Central Command said its forces had struck approximately 90 military targets in the country.

Iran responded by targeting US military bases across the Middle East on Thursday.

Relations between Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, have also apparently become strained since the two countries embarked on their conflict with Iran.

Mr Netanyahu has pushed for the conflict to continue, while Trump, facing criticism over the war, even from some factions of his own party, has sought to bring it to an end.

The pair spoke on Thursday, according to The Wall Street Journal, during which they agreed to continue “coordination between the countries”, the Israeli prime minister’s office said.

“As part of the continuous contact” between the two, “President Trump updated the prime minister on American moves in the Gulf,” the Israeli leader’s office said.

#trump #iran #feces #assassination #plan #israel

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Mbappé Made the World Ripple With Expectation 🇫🇷⚽️


There is a relentlessness to this France that might make them irresistible.

Morocco no doubt had the best of intentions, ideas of how they could hurt the side that had beaten them in the semi-final in Qatar, but France press so well that they soon accepted they had no option but to retreat and endure. France have such attacking quality that simply surviving isn’t really a viable option.

Kylian Mbappé, once again, was the key figure, missing a penalty, scoring a stunning opener and then teeing up Ousmane Dembélé for the second.

He went off with 13 minutes remaining to a deserved ovation : the game had seemed to be drifting, and there had just been a sense that Morocco might conceivably pull off an implausible rearguard action, when he produced a goal from nowhere.

How can you stop France? You can defend with great organisation and concentration, block and tackle and harry and work, your keeper can make two or three excellent saves, and then one of their forwards conjures a goal like that.

What is a defence supposed to do? Perhaps France have gone too early. Perhaps they will not be able to sustain this form. But if they do, it is going to take something remarkable to prevent them winning their third World Cup in 28 years.

For much of the first half, a French goal seemed only a matter of time and when Mbappé, released by Michael Olise after Achraf Hakimi had been dispossessed by Desiré Doué, was tripped in the box by Noussair Mazraoui, they had the perfect opportunity.

But the wait for the VAR check, and then for Yassine Bounou to return to his line, was inexplicably long – three minutes and 10 seconds – for what seemed a straightforward decision.

Perhaps the delay spooked Mbappé: his kick was hit limply to Bounou’s left and the keeper saved easily. For Bounou, who has a reputation as a penalty specialist, it was the first time he had saved a penalty for his country outside of shootouts.

Bounou pushed away a Dayot Upamecano header and kept out a Doué effort low to his right, and Lucas Digne smacked a drive against the bar, but the breakthrough would not come for France.

By the time Morocco had their first effort on goal, a free kick slashed wide in the final minute of first-half injury-time, France had had 13 chances.

The rhythm that had elevated France in the group stage and the last-32 tie against Sweden is perhaps no longer quite there. But the intent is not lacking; it’s not that Didier Deschamps has retreated into the sort of cautious football that has characterised his France for the majority of his 14-year reign.

Crosses were overhit and chances were snatched at. In that sense, there’s something of the West Germany of 1990 about them : a team of undeniable and obvious quality, probably the best in the competition, that puts in a couple of signature displays early on and then find itself grinding through the knockout phase.

#mbappé #football #bounou #france #marocco

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📰 The Assassination Plot That Isn’t: Israel, Trump, and the Prewritten Revenge Script

Israel handed Washington “new intelligence” claiming elements of the Iranian regime discussed a plan to assassinate President Donald Trump.

The story landed in the Wall Street Journal and on Trump’s tongue at the NATO summit — then shrank within hours, as senior U.S. officials clarified there was no concrete, specific, operational plot, just a single report of a general conversation that hadn’t been corroborated.

The distance between “fresh assassination plan” and “someone talked about it once” is about the size of a prime-time panic segment.

Trump, predictably, refused to stay within the narrow contours of that caveat. In an interview with the New York Post, he said he has already left the U.S. military explicit instructions for the scenario in which Iran succeeds: “If anything happens, just bomb them with a force they have never seen before.”

In his telling, this isn’t new doctrine but a standing vendetta: Tehran has wanted him dead since he ordered the killing of Qassem Soleimani in 2020, and he has been “Iran’s number one target for a long time.”

He even added the line that puts the whole thing back in reality: “I hope you’ll miss me.”

Across the ocean, the gap between talk and action looks just as wide. U.S. authorities have charged eight people over an alleged plot to attack a White House martial arts event with explosive‑bearing drones and snipers, aiming at Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance and other officials.

On Iran’s official airwaves, a state TV host on Channel 3 went simpler: he said live that if it were up to him, he’d go personally to kill the U.S. president.

On the municipal level, the person in charge of foreign affairs for New York’s mayor cooked up a meeting with Iran’s UN ambassador — until State Department officials heard about it and the encounter vanished.

What emerges is a layered theater of “plots”. Israel signals danger to keep the Iran war framed as defense of the president.
U.S. agencies downgrade the intel to “overheard talk” but still parade domestic would‑be attackers in court.

Iranian loyalists shout death threats on TV and hang bounty banners, while Trump brags about his own pre-signed order for apocalyptic retaliation.

Everyone gets to claim they’re under existential threat. Everyone gets to justify something: more strikes, more prosecutions, more televised rage.

The only thing still missing is an actual, verified plan — which makes the one written by Trump himself, “if I die, erase them,” the most real assassination script on the table.

#iran #us #trump #assassination #israel #intelligence #fakePlots

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📰 The Ceasefire That Never Really Happened

Trump stands on a NATO stage and announces that Iran asked to keep talking, the U.S. agreed, and “the ceasefire is over.”

The catch: there was barely a ceasefire to begin with. Even he’d already explained the deal as “less shooting,” not “no shooting.” The war never stopped; the branding just changed.

U.S. officials quietly admit they’re running alternating rounds of strikes and pauses to avoid a full‑scale blow‑up while keeping leverage on the table.

The Pentagon sits on a fat target bank and burns through it in episodes, signaling that there’s always another wave ready if Tehran plays hardball. “Peace process” means missiles with intermissions.

On the water and in the air, everyone behaves like the next round is already booked. Carrier strike groups Lincoln and Bush slide in to roughly 220–250 kilometers off Iran’s coast, closer than at any time in the war, well inside Iran’s claimed missile envelope.

U.S. commanders brag that Iran doesn’t “control” Hormuz, listing hundreds of tankers and millions of barrels that have technically crossed the strait even as shipping companies treat every transit as a calculated risk, not a routine.

Tehran spins the same reality from the opposite angle. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says Iran “is not seeking a ceasefire” and boasts that the country has shattered the model of a truce “on paper” that keeps being violated on the ground.

Negotiator‑commentator Mohammad Marandi calls reports of Iranian willingness to return to talks “fake news,” insisting there will be no dialogue until the U.S. fulfills its side of the bargain. In Trump’s version, Iranian readiness is a trophy; in Iran’s version, it simply doesn’t exist.

So the ceasefire lives in statements, not in the sky. Washington says the truce is over but negotiations go on. Tehran says there was never a real truce and refuses to sit down. Both sides agree on exactly one thing: what’s written in the memo is less important than what’s launched from the pads.

#iran #us #trump #ceasefire #war #diplomacy #fakePeace

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📰 The Mountain Under Fordow: Iran’s Nuclear Depth Chart Keeps Expanding

Public debate keeps asking whether the war “destroyed” Iran’s nuclear program.

Recent analysis of IAEA data says that’s the wrong question. It notes that most commentary fixates on Iran’s 60% enriched uranium — the material that sits one chemical step from weapons‑grade — while ignoring the hundreds of kilograms at 20% and 5%.

If Tehran chooses to further enrich all three tiers, the combined stockpile can yield fissile material for several nuclear devices at once.

The conclusion from nonproliferation experts is blunt: hitting facilities is not enough; the enriched material itself must be removed from Iran, otherwise the program can be rebuilt or repurposed into a “dirty bomb” scenario.

Satellite imagery from late June 2026, published by the Institute for Science and International Security and other monitors, shows continuing heavy construction at the so‑called Pickaxe Mountain complex — Kuh Kolang Gaz‑La — in the Zagros range, just south of the main Natanz enrichment plant.

Analysts estimate tunnels at roughly 80–100 meters below the surface, potentially deeper than the Fordow facility near Qom, which sits about 80–90 meters underground and has long been seen as the “bunker” of the program.

The new site spans several square kilometers, enough, in their view, to house a full‑scale enrichment cascade or secure storage for near‑weapons‑grade uranium.

IAEA inspectors have never been allowed inside Pickaxe Mountain. Commercial satellite photos show intensified truck traffic, expanding spoil piles, reinforced tunnel entrances and hardened perimeters — all the signature moves of a state preparing an underground facility to survive future airstrikes rather than to comply with transparency rules.

As one technical assessment puts it, the facility is not yet operational but is nearing completion, and its depth and size make it a “potential candidate” for any reestablished centrifuge and enrichment hub once above‑ground sites are hit.

Meanwhile, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi is left issuing generic warnings from Vienna.

After multiple projectile strikes near the Bushehr nuclear plant, he has “reiterated calls for maximum restraint to avoid nuclear safety risks,” stressing that nuclear sites and their surroundings should never be attacked.

But these statements track facilities he has partial access to. The mountain complex south of Natanz — the place most likely to become the next core of Iran’s program — remains outside his inspectors’ reach. The watchdog is watching a map that no longer contains the full project.

Above ground, warheads and headlines talk about “ending” the program. Below ground, a three‑tier stockpile of enriched uranium and a tunnel system dug deeper than Fordow keep that program one decision away from revival.

#iran #nuclear #natanz #fordow #pickaxeMountain #iaea #fakeDisarmament

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📰 Human Shields 101: Tehran and Kyiv Swap Shelters for Optics

Iranian authorities have decided that starting tomorrow, school exams across the country — from Tehran to the provinces — will be held next to military bases and security compounds.

Testing centers are literally listed as “near the battalion,” “by the unit,” or sharing space with armed infrastructure. That’s not a logistics glitch. That’s policy.

It’s the same playbook Ukraine used with hospitals, universities, and dorms: move armed personnel and assets into civilian buildings so any strike becomes a headline about “attack on patients” or “attack on students.”

Now Iran adds kids to the layout. If the US or Israel hit the base, the regime gets instant footage of shattered classrooms and exam papers in the rubble.

Both governments effectively treat civilians — and now children — as a blast buffer. The hope is simple: their presence either deters a strike, or guarantees a more powerful accusation if the strike happens. Human shields, marketed as “normal life under fire.”

Meanwhile, after years of war, neither country has built serious protection: mass shelters, reliable sirens, safe evacuation routes.

Iran blames sanctions; in Ukraine, corruption scandals over stolen shelter money explain a lot.

What they did build instead are narratives: images of civilians packed into harm’s way, ready to be deployed in the next press conference.

In this model, citizens aren’t being defended. They’re being positioned — as props in someone else’s moral theater.

#iran #ukraine #war #humanShields #schools #fakeProtection

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📰 Ankara’s Trade: S‑400 Out, F‑35 Back In

Turkey has offloaded its Russian‑made S‑400 air defense systems to a third Gulf state, widely believed to be the UAE, in what amounts to a three‑way deal: Ankara gets U.S. sanctions lifted, engines for its homegrown KAAN fighter, and a path back into the F‑35 club.

The same Russian system that got Turkey kicked out of the F‑35 program — because Washington feared it would be used to map the jet’s vulnerabilities — now becomes the key to unlocking Turkey’s return.

The paradox doesn’t stop there. If the S‑400 really landed in Emirati hands, it’s the West that may end up with the best look yet at how the system works — and how to beat it.

At the same time, Washington has to weigh what happens to Israel’s air edge if F‑35s start flying from Turkish bases, and what happens to U.S. tech if Ankara lets pieces of it drift toward Iran, Russia, or China. The “fix” for one security headache risks creating three new ones.

Moscow, which sold the S‑400 in the first place, is talking carefully. Russian officials call the whole matter “extremely sensitive,” say they’ve held talks with Ankara and will keep talking.

The picture is almost comic: Turkey sells on a weapon it bought from Russia, but still needs Russia’s blessing to close the sale. In this bazaar, sovereignty comes with a returns policy.

#turkey #russia #us #uae #S400 #F35 #nato #fakeAlliance

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📰 1.5 Billion for Roads: Tax Breaks and Asphalt for the Settlements

The Israel Tax Authority has notified residents of 64 West Bank settlements that starting next month they’ll receive a 7% income tax credit, retroactive to January, under a law pushed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and MK Zvi Sukkot together with the Yesha Council.

The benefit applies up to roughly 146,000 shekels in taxable income per year and is being implemented now, with instructions to employers to update payroll software and issue retroactive refunds.

The law squeaked through just before the government turns into a caretaker; the timing makes sure the money is locked in before the cabinet loses full budgetary power.

At the same time, the outgoing government is set to approve a plan for new roads, access routes and “security infrastructure” for dozens of additional West Bank communities, with a price tag north of one billion shekels split between the Defense and Transportation ministries, as part of a larger multi‑year road blueprint for the territory.

Among the beneficiaries are four settlements evacuated in the northern Samaria disengagement, now getting fresh tarmac as a kind of historical reversal.

Smotrich brands this package a “settlement‑security revolution” designed to “kill the terrible idea of establishing a terror state in the heart of Israel,” framing asphalt and tax relief as counter‑terror tools rather than annexation by infrastructure.

On the other side of the political spectrum, a Democratic Party candidate calls it “daylight robbery”: instead of money going to rebuild the north and the south, it goes to already affluent settlements, and there is “no line this government won’t cross.”

A government on its way out still has time to entrench fiscal privileges and road networks for one group of citizens, but not to prioritize bombed‑out border towns. The budget pen keeps moving even as the mandate clock runs out.

On the same day that money and concrete are being lined up, the ground reality looks uglier. Fresh clashes break out between Jews and Arabs around Yatta in the South Hebron hills; Palestinian reports accuse a group of Israelis of setting fires in civilian agricultural land near Turmus Ayya north of Ramallah, and another group of settlers of beating a Palestinian in Beit Furik east of Nablus.

It’s three flashpoints in one day, three variations on the same pattern of nationalist violence.

Put together, the fiscal‑settlement move in Jerusalem and the friction incidents in the hills form one picture. While the state apparatus is busy paving roads and handing out tax breaks to selected communities, simultaneous local violence in that same space gets no comparable institutional attention.

The reports mention no arrests, no indictments, no prosecutions for the arson and assault — a conspicuous absence against the backdrop of how quickly economic decisions are made for the very same area.

#israel #westbank #settlements #taxBreaks #roads #violence #fakeRuleOfLaw

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📰 Muscat’s Middle Lane: Diplomacy on Paper, A Strait on Pause

Iranian and Omani foreign ministers sit down, with Qatari officials in the room, to talk about “safe passage” and a full reopening of the so‑called middle lane — the channel that runs through what lawyers call international waters.

On paper, they’re working off neat phrases about maritime security and memoranda from Islamabad. In reality, the strait looks more like a frozen pipeline than a global artery.

Tehran’s official line is that Hormuz is “entirely within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman,” and that only the coastal states get a say in how it’s run.

Qatar is retrofitted into the story as the polite mediator, nothing more. IRGC‑linked outlets make it clear there will be no real talks until Washington backs down from its current positions.

In the legal script, it’s sovereign control plus friendly facilitation. In the shipping logs, it’s: almost no cargo.

Ship‑tracking data show trade through the strait has slowed to a crawl. Only a tiny handful of vessels complete the northern pass in a full day, with one tanker hopping from the US‑patrolled lane into the Iranian lane mid‑transit and others suspected of slipping through with their transponders switched off.

For an artery that usually carries a fifth of the world’s traded oil, five visible ships in 24 hours is not “managed flow.” It’s a hard flinch.

That gap between the communiqués and the AIS feed is exactly where Washington now points the threat.

US officials brief the New York Times that unless Iran publicly confirms the lanes are open and safe, “the consequences will not be to its advantage” — a dry way of saying: if you treat Hormuz as your private lever, we will treat it as a pressure point.

#iran #oman #qatar #hormuz #oil #shipping #sanctions #fakeFreePass

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📰 Israel 2026: Trooper’s Party — Who Does It Really Help?

Former minister Chili Trooper has launched a new party with Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists, promising he “will not hand Netanyahu a 61‑seat majority.” The question isn’t its strength; it’s whose game it plays.

For non‑Israeli readers: the Knesset has 120 seats, 61 are needed to govern, and parties that miss the ~3.25% threshold lose all their votes. Power is block math.

The “change bloc” — center and moderate right that want Netanyahu out without going left — now rallies around Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar!, which in some polls edges or ties Likud but still lacks a clear path to 61.

Trooper’s move breaks up Benny Gantz’s rival centrist project with Hendel and Dedi Simchi; Hendel signs with Trooper, Simchi complains he was left in the dark, and Gantz’s list sinks toward the threshold.

That leaves Eisenkot with the clearest claim to be the serious prime‑ministerial candidate in the anti‑Netanyahu camp, even if figures like Gantz and Bennett still exist on the map.

At the same time, Trooper steps into the same voter lane as a hypothetical “Likud B” led by Gilad Erdan, Yuli Edelstein, and Ayelet Shaked, which polls at around six seats but cuts into both Likud and Yashar!.

The more crowded that “responsible right‑of‑center without Bibi” space looks, the riskier it becomes for Erdan to launch — and the more likely disappointed right‑wing voters are to drift back to the one right‑wing project that feels tested and safe: Likud.

Trooper and Eisenkot deny any pact; Trooper vows not to join a Netanyahu government and may have a fallback slot in Yashar! if his list fails.

But structurally, his party does two things at once: it weakens a rival center bloc and fragments the anti‑Netanyahu field, increasing the odds that moderate‑right votes either burn under the threshold or come home to Netanyahu.

Whether Trooper ends up helping real change or reinforcing the old choice will be decided by one line: do enough right‑leaning voters cross over to Eisenkot to reach 61, or does “we won’t sit under him” kick in first?

#israel #elections2026 #trooper #hendel #eisenkot #netanyahu #likud #fakeChoice

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📰 Corridor War: Iran Takes IMEC Hostage, Turkey Builds the Detour

IRGC‑linked Fars sketches a new escalation script: if the US keeps hitting Iran’s rail bridges on the North–South corridor, the “answer” should be strikes on Jebel Ali in the UAE and Haifa in Israel — the showcase ports of the India–Middle East–Europe Corridor, the Abraham Accords’ economic product.

One cruise‑missile hit on an INSTC/BRI bridge moves the fight off Hormuz and onto the hardware of connectivity itself: ports and junctions that tie India to the Gulf and Europe.

Message from Tehran: you hit our corridor, we hit yours. IMEC becomes collateral for INSTC. Naming Jebel Ali and Haifa means that routing around Israel via the Gulf doesn’t protect you from Iran’s valve.

The only segment that falls out of Iran’s direct line of fire is the land route through Syria under Turkish patronage, because it isn’t wired into the Israel–UAE combo. On that section, Iran and Turkey are rivals in most things — except on one point: both want the Israeli branch weakened.

Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, meanwhile, leans into the Syrian option. He talks up a land corridor from Turkey through Syria and Jordan to the Gulf, wrapped in “regional solidarity” and the mantra that “nothing can be solved without the regional powers.”

If Hormuz stays open, Ankara cashes in as mediator; if demand for a dry bypass grows, Ankara sits as gatekeeper and shareholder. Either way, freight pays Turkey.

The S‑400 deal is the operational key. Ankara is weighing sending its Russian air‑defense batteries to a Gulf state — widely tipped as Dubai — under a formula that would lift US sanctions and reopen the F‑35 program.

That clears the legal tripwire that knocked Turkey out; at the same time, it thickens the triangle UAE–Turkey–Russia just as Abu Dhabi straddles IMEC and Turkey’s “Development Road.”

The UAE isn’t defecting to an anti‑Israel axis — it’s buying protection after taking the heaviest Iranian fire — but the neat Israel–UAE versus Turkey picture starts to blur.

Turkey with F‑35s has a sharper air edge over the Eastern Med and northern Syria. Israeli strikes on the Syrian segment of the land route become more expensive and risky.

Fidan’s line that “the only risk to Syria is Israel’s policy” isn’t aimed at convincing the IDF; it’s aimed at building a corridor‑backed bloc that treats each raid on Latakia, Tartus and the Turkish‑patronized rail link as a hit on shared infrastructure, raising the political price of every sortie.

Together, Tehran’s threat to Jebel Ali and Haifa and Ankara’s push for a Syria track create the same outcome: the Israeli branch of the India–Europe project becomes the most exposed piece on the board, while the Turkish‑Syrian bypass grows into the corridor you can’t bomb without paying a much higher cost.

#iran #turkey #uae #israel #IMEC #INSTC #S400 #F35 #fakeConnectivity

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A Putin Stan.
Why Does “Trump Treat Iran About the Same Way As Putin Treats Ukraine?”

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Iran and the US exchanged fresh strikes early on Sunday over what Tehran said was unauthorised use of the Strait of Hormuz by a container ship, raising further doubts about the prospects of talks to agree a way forward for the vital waterway.

The latest flare-up began when the ⁠Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had struck a vessel travelling on an unapproved route and then closed the strait, warning that any retaliation would be met with a “severe response”.

“A vessel that had jeopardised maritime security by switching off its systems was struck and ⁠brought to a halt,” the navy of Iran’s ⁠Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in ​a statement, without giving further details.

A short time later, US Central Command said its forces had carried out a round of strikes against Iran, attacking at least 140 targets. “The United States is imposing a heavy cost by continuing to degrade Iran’s ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the strait,” the military said.

The targets included missile and drone sites, naval capabilities, ammunition depots, communication networks and surveillance locations, it added.

Iran had attacked a Cyprus-flagged container ship, which suffered “significant engine room damage”, and a civilian crew member was missing, US Central Command said.

The ⁠United Kingdom Maritime ⁠Trade Operations ⁠agency (UKMTO) confirmed a container ship nine nautical ‌miles east of Oman sustained damage ​to the rear of ⁠the vessel ​which ​caused ​a fire ​onboard.

Hours later, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait said their air defences were engaging missile and drone threats, while neighbouring Bahrain sounded air raid sirens.

The UAE said explosions heard across the country “are the result of ongoing engaging operations of missiles and UAVs”.

Bahrain’s interior ministry urged citizens and residents to remain calm and head to the nearest safe place.

Iran’s IRGC later said ​it had struck ⁠and disabled a second ⁠vessel ​in ‌the strait ‌and targeted the US air base ‌at Al Udeid in Qatar ​with ballistic missiles, destroying ⁠its fighter jet ​maintenance centre ​and ​command ​and ‌control ​facility.

#trump #iran #war #hormuz #strikes

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The strait, the IRGC said, was now closed “until further notice” and at least until “the end of US interference in this region”.

The Australian government urged Iran to uphold the ceasefire agreement, including allowing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

A spokesperson for foreign minister Penny Wong said: “We want to see negotiations between the US and Iran continue, the ceasefire to resume and the strait of Hormuz to be kept open. We call on Iran to abide by its obligations under the agreement, including to ensure safe passage through the strait of Hormuz.”

The latest incident comes amid efforts in Oman to discuss the fate of the strait. “In fact, Trump treats Iran about the same way Putin treats Ukraine, they both consider Iran and Ukraine to be potentially dangerous States that must be brought under control,” says Mark Milley, ex-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Iran’s foreign minister ‌Abbas Araqchi met Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi to exchange “views on appropriate mechanisms for the safe passage of ‌ships through the strait of Hormuz”, according to a statement from Tehran.

A senior Iranian source told Reuters ​that Iran, the US, Qatar and Pakistan had agreed to negotiate in a call that ‌mediators were trying to arrange for Saturday while Araqchi was in Oman.

It was not immediately clear whether the efforts were successful.

The latest diplomatic moves followed exchanges of rhetoric on Saturday between Tehran and Washington.

Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed revenge for the killing of his father and predecessor, hours after US president Trump threatened severe reprisals in the event of any attempt on his life.

“Vengeance is the will of our nation and must inevitably be carried out,” new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written message.

“This matter depends neither on my personal existence nor on that of other officials. Whether we are present or not, it will come to pass,” he wrote in his first message since his father’s funeral this week. He said Iran had compiled a list of individuals to be targeted.

Both sides carried out exchanges of fire earlier this week, rocking an interim agreement aimed at ending the war, which broke out in late February with massive US-Israeli strikes that killed the then supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

Trump has declared the ceasefire over while leaving the door open for talks, and mediators have been trying to salvage a diplomatic solution, with Iranian media reporting that a delegation from Qatar travelled to Iran on Friday.

Hours earlier, Trump had posted on his Truth Social platform that any attempt to assassinate him would lead the United States to “completely decimate” Iran.

“1000 missiles are locked and loaded and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran, with thousands of more to immediately follow, should the Iranian government act on its threat, pronounced in many corners of the globe, to assassinate, or attempt to assassinate, the sitting President of the United States of America, in this case, ME!,” he wrote.

News outlets Axios and Politico reported that Washington has given Tehran until Saturday to stop firing on commercial ships transiting Hormuz and acknowledge the waterway is open.

#trump #iran #war #hormuz #strikes

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Musk Sent Tommy Robinson to Russia. What For ?


Elon Musk’s family foundation took Tommy Robinson to Russia, according to the billionaire X owner’s father, who was with the British far-right activist in Moscow as he encouraged anti-migration protests in Britain.

Robinson – whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon – appeared last month in Moscow, from where he issued calls for supporters to take to the streets after a knife attack in Belfast.

He shared video of himself in a luxury Moscow hotel with the older Musk, whose son has been a vocal supporter of Robinson.

“I brought him out to Russia,” Musk’s father, Errol, told the Guardian, adding that both men had held meetings with Russian business figures. He said the trip had been covered by the Musk Foundation, a private philanthropic organisation founded by Elon Musk and his brother Kimbal Musk.

The visit to Moscow came at a time when Putin’s regime and its proxies have appeared to be forging links with European far-right figures. At the same time, Russia was also hosting Andrew Tate, the self-styled misogynistic influencer, and his brother, who posted footage of themselves firing weapons and riding in a tank in the apparent company of the Russian military.

Police in Britain subsequently stopped and seized Robinson’s phones as he returned from a trip to Russia. While Robinson had previously visited Russia several years ago, this time he appeared to be more explicit in his praise for Russia, sharing footage of Russian ultra-nationalists holding a rally in memory of the murdered British teenager Henry Nowak.

Errol Musk, who also went to St Petersburg for an annual Kremlin-backed economic forum, said that Robinson was “a fine young man”.

“He’s very hotheaded, but at the same time, he’s learning,” claimed the South African, who has travelled to Russia in the past and at one point met Putin. A Russophile who said he believed that Russia had a “genetic advantage” over the west, Errol Musk holds firmly pro-Russian positions on the conflict in Ukraine.

Topics covered in meetings alongside Robinson included Russia’s attempts to address a decline in births. “Tommy really got into these meetings,” he said.

Musk senior said he had become familiar with Robinson after the far-right activist was imprisoned. Robinson has a number of convictions but sought the spotlight in particular after he was sent to prison for breaching a contempt of court order.

“So I contacted Tommy, I was asked on British television once what I think of Tommy,” Errol Musk added.

Last month, Robinson told the Guardian that he had come to see the “beauty of a civilised society” after visiting Russia.

Prof Stephan Lewandowsky, at the University of Bristol, who has studied the threat posed to society by misinformation, said the visit by Robinson and Tate came against the backdrop of a hybrid war that Putin was waging against the west.

“Part of that means he will recruit anyone to undermine western democracy from within, whether that is Robinson, the Tates or others involved in more conventional politics,” he said.

“There is a pragmatic reason for the Russians to be making links like this.

“It is to their political advantage, but there is also clearly examples of ideological alignment to the extent that we are talking about ultra-nationalist birds of a feather.”

It revealed earlier this year that the head of a leading British far-right group spoke at a summit of European extreme nationalist groups convened in Russia by an influential oligarch linked to Putin.

The event in St Petersburg was addressed by Mark Collett, a longstanding far-right activist and founder of Patriotic Alternative, which attempted to exploit the summer of unrest outside asylum hotels in Britain.

#musk #foundation #robinson #russia

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#trump #missiles #islamic #republic

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📰 Drones as War Oil: Tehran’s Factory, Kyiv’s Franchise

Iran’s acting defense minister now boasts that during the war with the US and Israel, military drone production “did not stop, it tripled.”

In other words, under bombing and sanctions, the defense industry ran hot: missile bases and launchers were restored, and UAV output surged instead of shrinking.

For Tehran, drones are a sanctioned export commodity and a deterrence tool — something that keeps the regime influential and solvent even when everything else is under pressure.

Kyiv is building a mirror, but with a different goal. Ukraine has multiplied domestic drone production roughly tenfold compared with 2024, and Western money is helping turn that into a continental franchise: joint plants in Poland, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands and across the Nordics, billions of euros in shared programs, and contracts that promise hundreds of thousands of units a year.

Ukraine brings combat testing and designs; Europe brings cash, factories and procurement guarantees. Drones become a long‑term business line, not just an emergency project.

The key asymmetry is in how each regime talks about the war that feeds this business. Iranian officials insist they “do not seek war” and frame drones as a way to avoid it: deterrence, proxy leverage, export revenue.

The war economy is there, but officially it exists to make conflict less likely.

Zelensky’s survival, by contrast, is openly hitched to the continuation of the war. His international brand, his domestic legitimacy and the entire joint‑production architecture depend on Ukraine remaining a live front.

The plants in Europe and the “big drone deal” he wants with the White House only make sense if the demand curve stays steep.

So two regimes use the same technology to fuel their systems, but on different terms. For Tehran, drones are a tool it claims to use to prevent war while quietly profiting from permanent tension.

For Kyiv, drones are the core of a strategy where ending the war too soon would blow up the very economic and political scaffolding built to sustain it.

#iran #ukraine #drones #armsTrade #warEconomy #fakePeace

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