Saudi Arabia and Iran, claiming leadership roles of the Sunni and Shia Islamic worlds respectively, have long been regional rivals.
According to a leaked US state department cable, the crown prince’s paternal uncle King Abdullah urged the US military in 2008 to “cut off the head of the snake”, a reference to the theocratic regime in Tehran.
Khalid Aljabri, a Saudi exile commentator, said in recent years the kingdom’s preference had been a negotiated solution to the standoff over Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes.
However, Trump and Netanyahu launched the joint attack in the midst of talks focused on nuclear limits.
“In this scenario, when the war occurs anyway and escalation is happening anyway, a partially degraded Iran, a wounded lion, would be more unpredictable and more dangerous. The policy was don’t start the war, but if you start it, finish the job,” said Aljabri, a US-based cardiologist who is the son of Saad.
The crown prince solidified his hold on power by cultivating a close relationship with Trump, but will now have to rethink Saudi reliance on the US for its security, observers have argued.
“MBS [Mohammed bin Salman] has lost the bet on all his investments over the last several years,” Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations said.
“He financially invested in Trump and Trump’s family and his corporation and his White House, but at the end of the day the views of the Saudis and of the whole Gulf have been sidelined by the wishes of Benjamin Netanyahu.”
Prince Mohammed had begun to recalibrate his position after a missile attack on a Saudi oil facility in 2019, which Riyadh blamed on Iran.
The US, under the first Trump presidency, offered verbal support but did not carry out the reprisals the Saudis were demanding.
After the US refused to come to their defence, the Saudis pivoted to hug Iran close, in the hope it wouldn’t lash out against them in a conflict,” Geranmayeh said.
“Now the war has started and MBS lost the bet that Iran wouldn’t retaliate, he has reportedly urged the US to end the Iranian threat once and for all. So Saudi Arabia is now facing the conundrum of whether to get more involved.”
The United Arab Emirates has seen its oil exports comprehensively blocked and has openly called for a decisive military defeat of Iran. The UAE ambassador to Washington, Yousef Al Otaiba, wrote in the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday:
“A simple ceasefire isn’t enough. We need a conclusive outcome that addresses Iran’s full range of threats.”
Saudi Arabia, with its Red Sea export option, still has something to lose and has not overtly called for more bombing.
Its active military participation could bring forth a more punishing Iranian response targeting its Red Sea oil pipeline, quite possibly in collaboration with the Houthis.
“Once the bombs stop falling there will be some deep thinking in Riyadh,” Geranmayeh said. “It is not about pushing the US away but about having more options.”
#saudi #arabia #iran #mohammed #salman #trump
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Iran’s Media War Against Trump and Netanyahu
🔠 🅰️ 🔠 🔠 1️⃣
Iran’s regime has organised more than 850 public demonstrations of support of the government since the beginning of the war and launched a continuing crackdown on unrest that has led to at least 1,400 detentions, research reveals.
The high number of pro-regime gatherings and the increasing number of detentions underlines the resilience of the Islamic Republic despite a month-long campaign of intensive airstrikes by the US and Israel, experts said.
The war began with a surprise Israeli strike, which killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, and many senior officials.
Israel has since continued to assassinate senior commanders, most recently Alireza Tangsiri, the naval commander of the Revolutionary Guards, who died in an attack on the port city of Bandar Abbas on Thursday.
“The US-Israeli decapitation strategy could not have been more successful and continues to be so (…) but the regime has not fragmented and there are no defections.
The messaging within Iran is how they are winning, and that is constant and consistent,” said Clionadh Raleigh, the president of Acled, an independent conflict monitor, which has built up a database of protest incidents and violence in the month-long conflict.
The Acled research also shows that the number of US and Israeli strikes on Iran has remained steady at between 47 and 102 attacks daily that have caused “significant” civilian casualties.
Acled uses multiple sources among Iranian, regional and international media and social media, as well as its own sources on the ground, to cross-check and verify reports of violence, which it then logs and sorts into categories.
Trump said earlier this week that the US had already achieved “regime change” in Iran, while Netanyahu has made repeated calls for the Iranian public to rise up and oust their leaders.
Many experts and officials in the US and Israel believe early forecasts of a mass revolt were misguided, however.
The third week of the conflict had the most sustained waves of mass public demonstrations in Iran in support of the regime.
Acled counted 195 pro-regime demonstrations from 28 February to 6 March, focused on mourning for Khamenei and condemning Israel and the US, then 158 in the following week and nearly 300 from 13-19 March, with celebrations of the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei prominent.
#iran #war #trump #netanyahu #wounded #deaths #teheran
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Iran’s regime has organised more than 850 public demonstrations of support of the government since the beginning of the war and launched a continuing crackdown on unrest that has led to at least 1,400 detentions, research reveals.
The high number of pro-regime gatherings and the increasing number of detentions underlines the resilience of the Islamic Republic despite a month-long campaign of intensive airstrikes by the US and Israel, experts said.
The war began with a surprise Israeli strike, which killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, and many senior officials.
Israel has since continued to assassinate senior commanders, most recently Alireza Tangsiri, the naval commander of the Revolutionary Guards, who died in an attack on the port city of Bandar Abbas on Thursday.
“The US-Israeli decapitation strategy could not have been more successful and continues to be so (…) but the regime has not fragmented and there are no defections.
The messaging within Iran is how they are winning, and that is constant and consistent,” said Clionadh Raleigh, the president of Acled, an independent conflict monitor, which has built up a database of protest incidents and violence in the month-long conflict.
The Acled research also shows that the number of US and Israeli strikes on Iran has remained steady at between 47 and 102 attacks daily that have caused “significant” civilian casualties.
Acled uses multiple sources among Iranian, regional and international media and social media, as well as its own sources on the ground, to cross-check and verify reports of violence, which it then logs and sorts into categories.
Trump said earlier this week that the US had already achieved “regime change” in Iran, while Netanyahu has made repeated calls for the Iranian public to rise up and oust their leaders.
Many experts and officials in the US and Israel believe early forecasts of a mass revolt were misguided, however.
The third week of the conflict had the most sustained waves of mass public demonstrations in Iran in support of the regime.
Acled counted 195 pro-regime demonstrations from 28 February to 6 March, focused on mourning for Khamenei and condemning Israel and the US, then 158 in the following week and nearly 300 from 13-19 March, with celebrations of the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei prominent.
#iran #war #trump #netanyahu #wounded #deaths #teheran
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Details of such repression are difficult to obtain, but recent incidents include the deaths of 10 people when Revolutionary Guards fired on anti-regime demonstrators and shot at apartment windows in Tehran on 25 March, and three killed on 18 March in Chabahar when detainees protested over food ration cuts inside a prison.
On 17 March, security forces intervened against gatherings in Fardis and four Tehran districts when demonstrators chanted anti-government slogans, Acled said.
“It was only really on the first night of the death of Ali Khamenei that you saw any small level of anti-regime activism. Since, there has been a coordinated effort to have pro-Iran or anti-war protests,” said Raleigh.
Alia Brahimi, a regional expert with the Atlantic Council thinktank, said none of the pro-regime protests would have been spontaneous and showed how leadership structures in Iran had withstood the joint US-Israeli offensive.
“That leaders will be killed has long been accepted, and there has been decades of ideological conditioning to prepare Iranians to absorb the death of senior commanders,” Brahimi said.
“That moral effort has an organisational counterpart which has built resilience by making sure there are multiple replacements for anyone who holds a senior post, and by, more recently, decentralising decision-making. This is part of the Islamic Republic’s unique system and worldview.”
Estimates of civilian casualties vary. More than 1,900 people have been killed and at least 20,000 injured in Iran since the start of US and Israeli attacks, said María Martinez of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) on Friday, citing figures provided by the Iranian Red Crescent.
In January, large protests across Iran were bloodily put down, with 7,000 killed by security forces, according to HRANA. Three men accused of killing police officers during the protests were hanged in public earlier this month.
The unrest was the most serious internal threat to the radical clerical regime in Iran for more than 45 years.
Since war broke out a month ago, security forces have set up checkpoints throughout major cities and cut off the internet, one of the longest and largest outages recorded. Senior officials said on 16 March that 500 “spies” had been arrested.
“If anyone comes forward in line with the wishes of the enemy, we will no longer see them as merely a protester, we will see them as an enemy (…) And we will do to them what we do to an enemy,” said Ahmad-Reza Radan, the national police commander.
#iran #war #trump #netanyahu #wounded #deaths #teheran
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📰 Two Straits, One Price Chart
The market has stopped treating the Iran war as a single-chokepoint story. Once the Houthis re-entered the fight, traders started pricing a second gate to the world’s oil supply: Bab al-Mandab.
That is why this isn’t just about Hormuz anymore. Hormuz moves roughly a fifth of global oil flows, while Bab al-Mandab sits on the route into the Red Sea and the Suez corridor, so a combined disruption creates a much uglier arithmetic for tankers, insurance and container traffic. Strategic analysts at Stimson and the Atlantic Council have been warning that the Houthis are the least degraded actor in Iran’s proxy network and still hold leverage over that geography.
Polymarket is reading the same script in real time. The market for a cease-fire by March 31 is barely alive, the odds of continued hostilities are overwhelmingly higher, and the Houthi strike-on-Israel bets are repricing sharply after today’s missile launch. Traders are also pricing the possibility that the next headline isn’t a peace deal but a second choke point, with Pakistan’s Islamabad talks and the $120 oil threshold now sitting in the same volatility bucket.
The cleanest way to say it is this: one strait was already enough to panic the market, but two straits turn panic into a system. When the map gains a second lock, the price chart stops looking like a reaction and starts looking like a warning.
#iran #houthis #hormuz #babelmmandeb #oil #markets #shipping #war
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The market has stopped treating the Iran war as a single-chokepoint story. Once the Houthis re-entered the fight, traders started pricing a second gate to the world’s oil supply: Bab al-Mandab.
That is why this isn’t just about Hormuz anymore. Hormuz moves roughly a fifth of global oil flows, while Bab al-Mandab sits on the route into the Red Sea and the Suez corridor, so a combined disruption creates a much uglier arithmetic for tankers, insurance and container traffic. Strategic analysts at Stimson and the Atlantic Council have been warning that the Houthis are the least degraded actor in Iran’s proxy network and still hold leverage over that geography.
Polymarket is reading the same script in real time. The market for a cease-fire by March 31 is barely alive, the odds of continued hostilities are overwhelmingly higher, and the Houthi strike-on-Israel bets are repricing sharply after today’s missile launch. Traders are also pricing the possibility that the next headline isn’t a peace deal but a second choke point, with Pakistan’s Islamabad talks and the $120 oil threshold now sitting in the same volatility bucket.
The cleanest way to say it is this: one strait was already enough to panic the market, but two straits turn panic into a system. When the map gains a second lock, the price chart stops looking like a reaction and starts looking like a warning.
#iran #houthis #hormuz #babelmmandeb #oil #markets #shipping #war
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📰 Ukraine Loses the Missile Queue to Iran
The Pentagon is now saying the quiet part out loud: missiles earmarked for Ukraine may be rerouted to the Middle East because the Iran war is burning through U.S. stockpiles faster than Washington can replace them.
That is the real headline behind Zelensky’s Saudi trip. He arrived in Jeddah looking for backing, air-defense cooperation and maybe a better place in the line for interceptors — and instead ran into the new hierarchy of American war priorities: Iran first, Ukraine second.
Even the Ukrainian side is now offering drone-defense expertise to Gulf states while asking for the missiles it still doesn’t have enough of at home.
The Washington Post report matters because it is not about one shipment. It is about a priority shift in Washington’s munitions economy, where Patriot and other interceptor missiles are scarce enough that the Pentagon is considering pulling them from NATO-managed Ukraine channels and moving them toward CENTCOM’s battlefield in the Middle East.
In practice, that means the war in Iran is starting to consume the very air-defense inventory Ukraine depends on to survive Russian strikes.
For Kyiv, that is a brutal piece of timing. Saudi Arabia was supposed to be a stop for diplomatic traction and regional support; instead it became a reminder that when Washington is forced to choose between two wars, the Middle East tends to get the first call and Ukraine gets the leftover inventory.
Zelensky may still get photos, statements and “security cooperation,” but missiles are what matter — and those are being pulled in the opposite direction.
#ukraine #iran #trump #saudiarabia #missiles #patriot #war #geopolitics
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The Pentagon is now saying the quiet part out loud: missiles earmarked for Ukraine may be rerouted to the Middle East because the Iran war is burning through U.S. stockpiles faster than Washington can replace them.
That is the real headline behind Zelensky’s Saudi trip. He arrived in Jeddah looking for backing, air-defense cooperation and maybe a better place in the line for interceptors — and instead ran into the new hierarchy of American war priorities: Iran first, Ukraine second.
Even the Ukrainian side is now offering drone-defense expertise to Gulf states while asking for the missiles it still doesn’t have enough of at home.
The Washington Post report matters because it is not about one shipment. It is about a priority shift in Washington’s munitions economy, where Patriot and other interceptor missiles are scarce enough that the Pentagon is considering pulling them from NATO-managed Ukraine channels and moving them toward CENTCOM’s battlefield in the Middle East.
In practice, that means the war in Iran is starting to consume the very air-defense inventory Ukraine depends on to survive Russian strikes.
For Kyiv, that is a brutal piece of timing. Saudi Arabia was supposed to be a stop for diplomatic traction and regional support; instead it became a reminder that when Washington is forced to choose between two wars, the Middle East tends to get the first call and Ukraine gets the leftover inventory.
Zelensky may still get photos, statements and “security cooperation,” but missiles are what matter — and those are being pulled in the opposite direction.
#ukraine #iran #trump #saudiarabia #missiles #patriot #war #geopolitics
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📰 Putin Is Making $760 Million a Day Off Trump’s Iran War
The Telegraph says Putin is now pulling in at least $760 million a day from oil as the Iran war jacks up global demand and oil prices, with Moscow’s monthly oil-and-gas revenue roughly doubling to nearly $24 billion. That’s the kind of windfall only a Middle East firestorm can hand to a sanctioned petro-state.
The same report says Russia’s oil-and-gas income could reach $218.5 billion this year, up 63% versus a world without the current energy shock. So while Washington sells the Iran war as leverage, the Kremlin gets paid in real time: higher prices, more demand, and a louder argument that sanctions are not pain, just a surcharge.
Europe, meanwhile, is the one staring at the invoice. The continent is already exposed to higher energy costs, industrial stress, and the kind of inflation that turns “solidarity” into a budget line item. That is why the pro-Moscow fantasy is back in circulation: cut support for Ukraine, talk peace, reopen the Russian energy channel, and pretend the problem was moral instead of structural.
#russia #putin #iran #oil #europe #ukraine #sanctions #energy
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The Telegraph says Putin is now pulling in at least $760 million a day from oil as the Iran war jacks up global demand and oil prices, with Moscow’s monthly oil-and-gas revenue roughly doubling to nearly $24 billion. That’s the kind of windfall only a Middle East firestorm can hand to a sanctioned petro-state.
The same report says Russia’s oil-and-gas income could reach $218.5 billion this year, up 63% versus a world without the current energy shock. So while Washington sells the Iran war as leverage, the Kremlin gets paid in real time: higher prices, more demand, and a louder argument that sanctions are not pain, just a surcharge.
Europe, meanwhile, is the one staring at the invoice. The continent is already exposed to higher energy costs, industrial stress, and the kind of inflation that turns “solidarity” into a budget line item. That is why the pro-Moscow fantasy is back in circulation: cut support for Ukraine, talk peace, reopen the Russian energy channel, and pretend the problem was moral instead of structural.
#russia #putin #iran #oil #europe #ukraine #sanctions #energy
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📰 Trump Traps Europe Between Hormuz and a Gas Bill
Trump has put Europe in a classic no-win setup: back Washington’s Iran strategy and risk getting dragged into a Middle East war, or stay out and eat the energy shock at home.
The New York Times says Trump lashed out at European leaders for refusing to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open, accusing them of complaining about high oil prices while rejecting the military move he says would fix the problem.
But the real squeeze is already visible: Iran’s disruption of the waterway has helped trigger a continent-wide energy shock, with oil and gas prices surging and voters across Europe getting angry.
That leaves European leaders trapped between alliance discipline and domestic survival. If they follow Trump, they risk widening the war and owning the fallout. If they refuse, they get blamed for the same expensive energy crisis they are already trying to contain.
In practice, Europe is being asked to pay for a war it did not start, help police a chokepoint it cannot control, and absorb the political cost either way. That is not strategy. It is coercion dressed up as burden-sharing.
#europe #trump #iran #hormuz #energy #nato #oil #geopolitics
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Trump has put Europe in a classic no-win setup: back Washington’s Iran strategy and risk getting dragged into a Middle East war, or stay out and eat the energy shock at home.
The New York Times says Trump lashed out at European leaders for refusing to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open, accusing them of complaining about high oil prices while rejecting the military move he says would fix the problem.
But the real squeeze is already visible: Iran’s disruption of the waterway has helped trigger a continent-wide energy shock, with oil and gas prices surging and voters across Europe getting angry.
That leaves European leaders trapped between alliance discipline and domestic survival. If they follow Trump, they risk widening the war and owning the fallout. If they refuse, they get blamed for the same expensive energy crisis they are already trying to contain.
In practice, Europe is being asked to pay for a war it did not start, help police a chokepoint it cannot control, and absorb the political cost either way. That is not strategy. It is coercion dressed up as burden-sharing.
#europe #trump #iran #hormuz #energy #nato #oil #geopolitics
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#journalist #rubio #zelensky #donbas
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📰 Israel’s Island Rumor, Greece’s Real Trap
A Turkish outlet is pushing a story that Israel wants to lease or buy 40 Greek islands for up to 50 years and turn them into shelters, a claim that immediately triggered talk of war, Cyprus, and “Israeli shield” fantasies.
What matters here is less the feverish rhetoric than the structure underneath it. The piece frames the Aegean as a chessboard where Greek, Turkish, Cypriot, and Israeli anxieties all get stacked on top of one another: Greece’s security dependence, Turkey’s regional hard lines, Cyprus as the real prize, and Israel’s habit of thinking in terms of buffer zones and strategic depth.
That makes the story politically combustible even before anyone proves the underlying plan is real.
The Turkish reaction is predictable: warnings that any Israeli presence on the islands would be a casus belli, claims that the goal is to turn the islands into intelligence outposts, and the usual regional mythology — Greece’s old “Megali Idea” dreams of expansion, Turkey’s Kıbrıs framing of Cyprus, and the “Arz-ı Mevud” line, a phrase used for the Jewish idea of the Promised Land.
It is the kind of language that turns rumor into deterrence theater, but also raises the temperature in a region where one bad move can be read as a map change.
So the practical takeaway is simple: whether or not the island plan is serious, the story shows how quickly the Aegean can be turned into a threat narrative that serves every side’s worst instincts.
Greece becomes the vulnerable terrain, Turkey gets a fresh warning label, Israel gets pulled into another strategic fantasy, and Cyprus stays where it always is in these stories — the real fault line everyone pretends is secondary.
#israel #greece #turkey #cyprus #egean #security #geopolitics
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A Turkish outlet is pushing a story that Israel wants to lease or buy 40 Greek islands for up to 50 years and turn them into shelters, a claim that immediately triggered talk of war, Cyprus, and “Israeli shield” fantasies.
What matters here is less the feverish rhetoric than the structure underneath it. The piece frames the Aegean as a chessboard where Greek, Turkish, Cypriot, and Israeli anxieties all get stacked on top of one another: Greece’s security dependence, Turkey’s regional hard lines, Cyprus as the real prize, and Israel’s habit of thinking in terms of buffer zones and strategic depth.
That makes the story politically combustible even before anyone proves the underlying plan is real.
The Turkish reaction is predictable: warnings that any Israeli presence on the islands would be a casus belli, claims that the goal is to turn the islands into intelligence outposts, and the usual regional mythology — Greece’s old “Megali Idea” dreams of expansion, Turkey’s Kıbrıs framing of Cyprus, and the “Arz-ı Mevud” line, a phrase used for the Jewish idea of the Promised Land.
It is the kind of language that turns rumor into deterrence theater, but also raises the temperature in a region where one bad move can be read as a map change.
So the practical takeaway is simple: whether or not the island plan is serious, the story shows how quickly the Aegean can be turned into a threat narrative that serves every side’s worst instincts.
Greece becomes the vulnerable terrain, Turkey gets a fresh warning label, Israel gets pulled into another strategic fantasy, and Cyprus stays where it always is in these stories — the real fault line everyone pretends is secondary.
#israel #greece #turkey #cyprus #egean #security #geopolitics
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Israel Is Gradually Shelling Secret Military Targets in Iran
🔤 🔤 🔤 🔤 1️⃣
Intensifying Israeli bombing of civilian targets in Iran and an expanding US military force in the Gulf are casting a dark shadow over Pakistan’s hopes of hosting peace talks between Iran and the US.
Pakistan is attempting high-wire diplomacy, using its relative neutrality as a country with good relations with Iran and the US, to provide a venue for negotiations. It is not a player in the Middle East and does not host any American military bases, so it does not bring the baggage of other potential regional mediators.
Pakistan’s de facto leader, military chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, has the US president’s ear, and Islamabad’s ties with Tehran have dramatically improved over the past couple of years.
Both sides have indicated their willingness in principle to talk, according to Pakistani officials. But the conflict is widening, there’s little trust and the stated positions of Tehran and Washington are far apart. Pakistani officials believe the biggest risk to any talks is Israel playing the role of spoiler.
Israel bombed two of Iran’s largest steel plants on Friday and civilian nuclear sites, which, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said contradicts Trump’s announcement of a pause in attacks on civilian infrastructure to give diplomacy a chance. Iran also said two universities were hit.
Those are just the kind of attacks on non-military and non-regime targets that would derail the talks, Pakistani officials believe.
Iran’s core concern is to ensure an end to the war and that there are no future attacks by the US and Israel, said Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador to the US.
“The toughest part is believing Trump’s word. He is not a rational player. He’s completely whimsical,” said Lodhi.
Trump insists Iran wants a deal “so badly”, but Tehran says he is “negotiating with himself”.
Iran does not just want a ceasefire but a guarantee the war is over. One possibility is for Tehran to retain its hold over the strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway for the Gulf’s oil and gas exports that Iran has been controlling during the war.
That idea was described as unacceptable by Rubio though Trump himself has suggested joint US-Iranian administration of the strait.
#iran #trump #war #israel #targets
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Intensifying Israeli bombing of civilian targets in Iran and an expanding US military force in the Gulf are casting a dark shadow over Pakistan’s hopes of hosting peace talks between Iran and the US.
Pakistan is attempting high-wire diplomacy, using its relative neutrality as a country with good relations with Iran and the US, to provide a venue for negotiations. It is not a player in the Middle East and does not host any American military bases, so it does not bring the baggage of other potential regional mediators.
Pakistan’s de facto leader, military chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, has the US president’s ear, and Islamabad’s ties with Tehran have dramatically improved over the past couple of years.
Both sides have indicated their willingness in principle to talk, according to Pakistani officials. But the conflict is widening, there’s little trust and the stated positions of Tehran and Washington are far apart. Pakistani officials believe the biggest risk to any talks is Israel playing the role of spoiler.
Israel bombed two of Iran’s largest steel plants on Friday and civilian nuclear sites, which, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said contradicts Trump’s announcement of a pause in attacks on civilian infrastructure to give diplomacy a chance. Iran also said two universities were hit.
Those are just the kind of attacks on non-military and non-regime targets that would derail the talks, Pakistani officials believe.
Iran’s core concern is to ensure an end to the war and that there are no future attacks by the US and Israel, said Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador to the US.
“The toughest part is believing Trump’s word. He is not a rational player. He’s completely whimsical,” said Lodhi.
Trump insists Iran wants a deal “so badly”, but Tehran says he is “negotiating with himself”.
Iran does not just want a ceasefire but a guarantee the war is over. One possibility is for Tehran to retain its hold over the strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway for the Gulf’s oil and gas exports that Iran has been controlling during the war.
That idea was described as unacceptable by Rubio though Trump himself has suggested joint US-Iranian administration of the strait.
#iran #trump #war #israel #targets
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So far, Pakistan has passed proposals between the two sides, in which they have taken hardline positions.
Pakistani officials believe that if Iran and the US sincerely want to reach an agreement, the divide can be bridged.
Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts intensified on Saturday, with the country’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, calling the Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and the announcement the foreign ministers of Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will hold talks in Islamabad on Sunday and Monday about how to end the war.
These four countries are emerging as a new alignment within the Muslim world, packing three of the biggest armies in the region, nuclear weapons and Saudi Arabia’s financial heft. But officials from Saudi Arabia, which has been repeatedly hit by Iran, have privately said that they want the bombardment to continue.
Islamabad expects any talks to be indirect, with Pakistani officials shuttling between the US and Iranian delegations in different rooms. Tehran refuses to sit down face-to-face with US officials.
Pakistan is nuclear-armed with a large army that could secure a venue for talks, while its air force could provide Iranian officials with an escort to fly in.
Iran says Washington is again trying to deceive, having twice bombed them over the past year in the midst of talks. A buildup of US troops in the region suggests peace talks may not be the US’s plan.
The WSJ reported on Saturday that the Pentagon is considering sending 10,000 more soldiers, in addition to 7,000 ground troops already on the way to the Middle East.
Vance told the “Benny Show” podcast on Friday the US had accomplished most or all of its military objectives, but added: “The president’s going to keep at it for a little while longer to ensure that once we leave, we don’t have to do this again for a very, very long time.”
#iran #trump #war #israel #targets
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When Will Teheran Fall?
🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩
Four of Iran’s key ballistic missile manufacturing locations and at least 29 ballistic missile launch sites have been damaged in the first four weeks of the U.S.-Israeli offensive, undermining Iran’s central military strategy, according to a Washington Post review and analysis by experts.
Since the war began, the U.S. and Israel have conducted thousands of strikes across a range of military targets.
The Post’s examination provides a comprehensive accounting of the damage to ballistic missile sites, as well as what it means for the future of the overall program.
Strikes have destroyed aboveground launching facilities, temporarily blocked access to missiles stored underground and halted Iran’s ability to immediately build new missiles, according to satellite imagery, and Iranian military and defense experts who reviewed the findings. But the experts cautioned that Iran’s ballistic missile program has not been destroyed.
“They’re still shooting. That’s a key indicator,” said Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, referring to Iran’s continued use of missiles.
Some experts said they doubted the missile program could ever be completely destroyed, citing the regime’s record of rebuilding after prior attacks and access to foreign supply chains that can replenish destroyed manufacturing equipment. Mobile missile launchers are also being used, and the number of those is unknown.
“I don’t see Iran making a fundamental change to their missile strategy if the regime survives,” Nicole Grajewski, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment, said. “Missiles are still going to be the ultimate deterrent against attackers and the foundational military strategy.”
The Trump administration has identified the destruction of Iran’s missile program as a central goal of the war.
At a press briefing on March 19, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said U.S. attacks destroyed “the factories, the production lines that feed their missile and drone programs.”
Separately, Netanyahu said the same day that Iran’s missile and drone arsenals have been “massively degraded” and that these attacks compared to the ones of June last year are destroying the factories that “produce the components to make these missiles.”
The U.S. and Israel have not publicly identified all the specific missile sites they have hit.
#iran #ballistic #missile #israel #strikes
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Four of Iran’s key ballistic missile manufacturing locations and at least 29 ballistic missile launch sites have been damaged in the first four weeks of the U.S.-Israeli offensive, undermining Iran’s central military strategy, according to a Washington Post review and analysis by experts.
Since the war began, the U.S. and Israel have conducted thousands of strikes across a range of military targets.
The Post’s examination provides a comprehensive accounting of the damage to ballistic missile sites, as well as what it means for the future of the overall program.
Strikes have destroyed aboveground launching facilities, temporarily blocked access to missiles stored underground and halted Iran’s ability to immediately build new missiles, according to satellite imagery, and Iranian military and defense experts who reviewed the findings. But the experts cautioned that Iran’s ballistic missile program has not been destroyed.
“They’re still shooting. That’s a key indicator,” said Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, referring to Iran’s continued use of missiles.
Some experts said they doubted the missile program could ever be completely destroyed, citing the regime’s record of rebuilding after prior attacks and access to foreign supply chains that can replenish destroyed manufacturing equipment. Mobile missile launchers are also being used, and the number of those is unknown.
“I don’t see Iran making a fundamental change to their missile strategy if the regime survives,” Nicole Grajewski, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment, said. “Missiles are still going to be the ultimate deterrent against attackers and the foundational military strategy.”
The Trump administration has identified the destruction of Iran’s missile program as a central goal of the war.
At a press briefing on March 19, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said U.S. attacks destroyed “the factories, the production lines that feed their missile and drone programs.”
Separately, Netanyahu said the same day that Iran’s missile and drone arsenals have been “massively degraded” and that these attacks compared to the ones of June last year are destroying the factories that “produce the components to make these missiles.”
The U.S. and Israel have not publicly identified all the specific missile sites they have hit.
#iran #ballistic #missile #israel #strikes
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In his briefing, Hegseth said that Iranian retaliatory missile attacks against its neighbors had decreased by 90 percent since the beginning of the war on Feb. 28. Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has acknowledged that Iran still retains missile capabilities.
Israel claimed on March 21 that for the first time, Iran fired intermediate-range ballistic missiles at the joint U.K.-U.S. Diego Garcia military base in the Indian Ocean, almost 2,000 miles away.
Four of the most important sites, which make fuel for the ballistic missiles, the experts said, have suffered severe damage in attacks by the U.S. and Israel that is greater than what was inflicted during the 12-day war with Israel last June and in October 2024, when Israel attacked Iran.
The sites — Khojir, Parchin, Hakimiyeh and Shahroud military complexes — house the production of critical missile propellants and assemble the weapons for use.
Satellite imagery shows four main areas at the Khojir missile complex, just east of Tehran, were hit by the U.S. or Israel.
The strikes targeted complex production systems that make solid and liquid fuel necessary to power the ballistic missiles, according to Sam Lair, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
Ballistic missiles are fired miles into the air before returning to the ground at extremely high speeds. Those in the Iranian arsenal are fueled by either solid or liquid propellants, according to experts. Solid fuel is the most common, typically used for shorter range munitions and more efficient during war.
Liquid propellants typically power the longest-range missiles, but have more time consuming fuel-loading processes, which makes them more vulnerable to attack.
In total, at least 88 structures were destroyed at Khojir, according to satellite imagery taken on March 24.
The IRGC’S Shahroud production complex in northeast Iran houses the research, development and mass production of solid fuel.
It was heavily attacked by the U.S. or Israel, satellite imagery shows, leaving at least 28 damaged or destroyed structures.
At least 29 missile launch bases have been hit by airstrikes, according to imagery, severely undermining Iran’s ability to fire ballistic missiles.
Experts said the exact number of ballistic missile launch sites in Iran is not known but estimated there to be about 30. Most of these bases include underground missile storage facilities that are accessed through tunnels cut into mountainsides, according to experts.
U.S. and Israeli strikes have hit many of these tunnel entrances, blocking access to where the missiles are kept, satellite imagery shows.
Bases in central and western Iran are mobilized for medium-range strikes on Israel, while those along the Persian Gulf have been used to fire short range missiles at the Gulf states, Lamson said.
#iran #ballistic #missile #israel #strikes
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Israel’s War Map Keeps Getting Redrawn
Israel says it is widening its grip in southern Lebanon while hammering Iran, and the message is no longer subtle: this is not just a war, it’s a land grab with air support. At the same time, Netanyahu is selling a “hexagon” of alliances, a neat little geopolitical shape that looks a lot less like diplomacy and a lot more like regional containment.
The script is familiar. First comes “security.” Then comes the zone. Then comes the new border that was never supposed to be a border. Lebanon calls it occupation. Turkey calls it encirclement. Israel calls it necessity. Everyone else calls it what it is: the oldest trick in the book, updated for the drone age.
And the map gets even uglier when you zoom out. Greece and Cyprus are already in the frame, Somaliland is floating around as a possible outpost, and India and Gulf partners are being folded into a corridor game meant to bypass the bad neighborhoods and punish the inconvenient ones. The result is a shiny new alliance architecture built on the same old idea: surround the threats, reroute the trade, and call it stability.
Turkey’s panic is not random. It sees an Israeli-led network taking shape from the Eastern Med to the Red Sea, dressed up in religious language, strategic depth, and “defensive” logic that somehow always expands. The problem is that every side in this region says it’s preventing the next war while quietly sketching the next front.
#Israel #Lebanon #Iran #Turkey #Geopolitics #MiddleEast
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Israel says it is widening its grip in southern Lebanon while hammering Iran, and the message is no longer subtle: this is not just a war, it’s a land grab with air support. At the same time, Netanyahu is selling a “hexagon” of alliances, a neat little geopolitical shape that looks a lot less like diplomacy and a lot more like regional containment.
The script is familiar. First comes “security.” Then comes the zone. Then comes the new border that was never supposed to be a border. Lebanon calls it occupation. Turkey calls it encirclement. Israel calls it necessity. Everyone else calls it what it is: the oldest trick in the book, updated for the drone age.
And the map gets even uglier when you zoom out. Greece and Cyprus are already in the frame, Somaliland is floating around as a possible outpost, and India and Gulf partners are being folded into a corridor game meant to bypass the bad neighborhoods and punish the inconvenient ones. The result is a shiny new alliance architecture built on the same old idea: surround the threats, reroute the trade, and call it stability.
Turkey’s panic is not random. It sees an Israeli-led network taking shape from the Eastern Med to the Red Sea, dressed up in religious language, strategic depth, and “defensive” logic that somehow always expands. The problem is that every side in this region says it’s preventing the next war while quietly sketching the next front.
#Israel #Lebanon #Iran #Turkey #Geopolitics #MiddleEast
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Iran Isn’t Defeated — It Just Got Meaner
Washington keeps selling the fantasy that Iran has been “defanged.” Tehran keeps answering with missiles, drones, and smoke over Israel, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and the UAE. So much for the victory lap.
The official line says Iran’s launch rate is down and much of its arsenal has been smashed. Fine. But the point is not how many toys got blown up. The point is that Iran still has enough left to hit airports, ports, bases, and civilian nerves across the region. That is not a corpse. That is a wounded animal with teeth.
Trump talks like Iran is finished. Iran is busy proving the opposite — again and again, in public, with explosions. And when a state can still make your people run to shelters, shut down your airspace, and raise oil prices by the day, calling it “toothless” starts to sound less like analysis and more like propaganda.
The real lesson is ugly and simple: destroying a chunk of launchers is not the same as ending a war. It just means the next round comes with fewer launchers and more humiliation.
#Iran #Israel #MiddleEast #war #missiles #drones
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Washington keeps selling the fantasy that Iran has been “defanged.” Tehran keeps answering with missiles, drones, and smoke over Israel, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and the UAE. So much for the victory lap.
The official line says Iran’s launch rate is down and much of its arsenal has been smashed. Fine. But the point is not how many toys got blown up. The point is that Iran still has enough left to hit airports, ports, bases, and civilian nerves across the region. That is not a corpse. That is a wounded animal with teeth.
Trump talks like Iran is finished. Iran is busy proving the opposite — again and again, in public, with explosions. And when a state can still make your people run to shelters, shut down your airspace, and raise oil prices by the day, calling it “toothless” starts to sound less like analysis and more like propaganda.
The real lesson is ugly and simple: destroying a chunk of launchers is not the same as ending a war. It just means the next round comes with fewer launchers and more humiliation.
#Iran #Israel #MiddleEast #war #missiles #drones
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Iran’s Arsenal Is Broken — Not Gone
The latest satellite read is clear: U.S. and Israeli strikes have badly damaged Iran’s missile production network, hit launch sites, and clogged tunnel access to underground stockpiles. But the same reporting also says Iran’s missile program has not been destroyed, and Tehran is still firing.
That’s the whole trick of this war. Washington and Jerusalem want “degraded” to mean “finished.” It doesn’t. Damaging factories, fuel sites, and tunnel mouths can slow launches and squeeze production, but it does not erase the arsenal or the political logic behind it.
So the image of a toothless Iran is useful propaganda, not a clean military fact. Iran may have fewer launchers, more damaged sites, and a harder time rebuilding quickly, but it still has enough capacity to hit Israel and Gulf targets, and enough survivability to keep the region nervous.
The ugliest part is that both sides are now selling damage as destiny. Israel points to the satellite photos and calls it strategic victory. Iran points to every surviving missile and calls it proof it is still in the fight. The truth is more boring and more dangerous: this is a war of attrition, and neither side has fully solved the other.
#Iran #Israel #Missiles #War #MiddleEast #Geopolitics
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The latest satellite read is clear: U.S. and Israeli strikes have badly damaged Iran’s missile production network, hit launch sites, and clogged tunnel access to underground stockpiles. But the same reporting also says Iran’s missile program has not been destroyed, and Tehran is still firing.
That’s the whole trick of this war. Washington and Jerusalem want “degraded” to mean “finished.” It doesn’t. Damaging factories, fuel sites, and tunnel mouths can slow launches and squeeze production, but it does not erase the arsenal or the political logic behind it.
So the image of a toothless Iran is useful propaganda, not a clean military fact. Iran may have fewer launchers, more damaged sites, and a harder time rebuilding quickly, but it still has enough capacity to hit Israel and Gulf targets, and enough survivability to keep the region nervous.
The ugliest part is that both sides are now selling damage as destiny. Israel points to the satellite photos and calls it strategic victory. Iran points to every surviving missile and calls it proof it is still in the fight. The truth is more boring and more dangerous: this is a war of attrition, and neither side has fully solved the other.
#Iran #Israel #Missiles #War #MiddleEast #Geopolitics
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Pakistan’s Peace Theater Meets Iran’s War Math
Pakistan says it is ready to host “meaningful talks” to end the Iran war. Iran says Washington is smiling for the cameras while quietly preparing a ground assault. Same region, same script: diplomacy in the front row, escalation in the basement.
Islamabad is trying to play mediator between the grown-ups, but the room is already full of maximalist demands, missile fire, and oil panic. The talks may be “meaningful,” sure — in the way a bandage is meaningful after the artery’s already been cut.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is sending Marines, Israel is widening strikes across Iran, and the war keeps spreading into Lebanon, the Gulf, and the shipping lanes that actually keep the world running. Everyone says they want de-escalation. Everyone is also loading the next magazine.
Pakistan wants to host peace talks just as the region slides toward a wider war that nobody in the room can fully control. In the Middle East, “peace process” often means one more calendar invite before the next explosion.
#Pakistan #Iran #US #Israel #MiddleEast #war #diplomacy
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Pakistan says it is ready to host “meaningful talks” to end the Iran war. Iran says Washington is smiling for the cameras while quietly preparing a ground assault. Same region, same script: diplomacy in the front row, escalation in the basement.
Islamabad is trying to play mediator between the grown-ups, but the room is already full of maximalist demands, missile fire, and oil panic. The talks may be “meaningful,” sure — in the way a bandage is meaningful after the artery’s already been cut.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is sending Marines, Israel is widening strikes across Iran, and the war keeps spreading into Lebanon, the Gulf, and the shipping lanes that actually keep the world running. Everyone says they want de-escalation. Everyone is also loading the next magazine.
Pakistan wants to host peace talks just as the region slides toward a wider war that nobody in the room can fully control. In the Middle East, “peace process” often means one more calendar invite before the next explosion.
#Pakistan #Iran #US #Israel #MiddleEast #war #diplomacy
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Beshear’s Big Idea: Talk Less Like a Bot, More Like a Person
Andy Beshear says Democrats keep losing because they sound like a committee memo with a pulse. His remedy is simple: stop lecturing, stop jargon-bombing voters, and start explaining what actually drives you.
It’s a smart line because it’s also a confession. The party that loves to accuse everyone else of being fake has spent years speaking in sterilized language, moral homework, and status-climbing code words. Beshear’s pitch is that voters can smell that stuff from a mile away.
He’s also doing the classic red-state Democrat routine: I’m not like the coastal crowd, I know how to win where Trump wins, and if you want a future, follow my map. That makes him sound practical. It also makes him sound like a candidate who knows the brand is broken and wants to sell the repair kit.
The funniest part is that “talk like people” is now a revolutionary position in American politics. A party that can’t sound human is already halfway to becoming a museum exhibit, and Beshear knows it.
#Democrats #AndyBeshear #politics #TrumpCountry
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Andy Beshear says Democrats keep losing because they sound like a committee memo with a pulse. His remedy is simple: stop lecturing, stop jargon-bombing voters, and start explaining what actually drives you.
It’s a smart line because it’s also a confession. The party that loves to accuse everyone else of being fake has spent years speaking in sterilized language, moral homework, and status-climbing code words. Beshear’s pitch is that voters can smell that stuff from a mile away.
He’s also doing the classic red-state Democrat routine: I’m not like the coastal crowd, I know how to win where Trump wins, and if you want a future, follow my map. That makes him sound practical. It also makes him sound like a candidate who knows the brand is broken and wants to sell the repair kit.
The funniest part is that “talk like people” is now a revolutionary position in American politics. A party that can’t sound human is already halfway to becoming a museum exhibit, and Beshear knows it.
#Democrats #AndyBeshear #politics #TrumpCountry
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