FOMC meeting in next 3 hrs, scheduled for 6 p.m. UTC.
Fed’s decision will set the tone for this last quarter.
There’s a 97.8% chance of a rate cut, and imo the market has already priced that in.
What everyone’s really waiting for is Powell’s speech hawkish or dovish, that’s where the real action will be.
The job market’s slowing down, inflation’s cooled off, and the government shutdown is hurting overall activity.
The big thing today is that Powell is expected to end QT, just like he did back in 2019, which kicked off the last big risk-on rally.
Fed’s decision will set the tone for this last quarter.
There’s a 97.8% chance of a rate cut, and imo the market has already priced that in.
What everyone’s really waiting for is Powell’s speech hawkish or dovish, that’s where the real action will be.
The job market’s slowing down, inflation’s cooled off, and the government shutdown is hurting overall activity.
The big thing today is that Powell is expected to end QT, just like he did back in 2019, which kicked off the last big risk-on rally.
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Alpha updates. 🪓
FOMC meeting in next 3 hrs, scheduled for 6 p.m. UTC. Fed’s decision will set the tone for this last quarter. There’s a 97.8% chance of a rate cut, and imo the market has already priced that in. What everyone’s really waiting for is Powell’s speech hawkish…
🚨 POWELL: Federal Reserve To End QT On December 1st!
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FED ENDED QT.
TWO RATE CUTS DONE.
TRUMP–XI TALKS WENT WELL, TARIFFS DOWN.
And still, markets are falling.
Anyone got something to say about this market??? 🤔
TWO RATE CUTS DONE.
TRUMP–XI TALKS WENT WELL, TARIFFS DOWN.
And still, markets are falling.
Anyone got something to say about this market??? 🤔
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There is still 66.8% chances of Rate cuts in December.
Last FOMC market was waiting to hear whether rate cuts are coming in December?
but Powell’s speech signaled a lower chance of a December cut, triggering a short-term market correction.
Still, there’s a 66.8% probability that the 3rd rate cut could be announced in December.
If inflation stays under control and unemployment rises, the chances will increase even more.
Two key factors for a rate cut:
1️⃣ Inflation must remain low
2️⃣ Unemployment should rise
Next key data to watch:
📅 US Job Data – 7 Nov
📅 US CPI Data – 13 Nov
If job data comes in weak and CPI shows lower inflation,
the December rate cut probability could jump from 66.8% to more than 90%
That means if the probability of a December rate cut increases,
we might see the market getting priced in as early as November.
Last FOMC market was waiting to hear whether rate cuts are coming in December?
but Powell’s speech signaled a lower chance of a December cut, triggering a short-term market correction.
Still, there’s a 66.8% probability that the 3rd rate cut could be announced in December.
If inflation stays under control and unemployment rises, the chances will increase even more.
Two key factors for a rate cut:
1️⃣ Inflation must remain low
2️⃣ Unemployment should rise
Next key data to watch:
📅 US Job Data – 7 Nov
📅 US CPI Data – 13 Nov
If job data comes in weak and CPI shows lower inflation,
the December rate cut probability could jump from 66.8% to more than 90%
That means if the probability of a December rate cut increases,
we might see the market getting priced in as early as November.
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Vitalik just gave $ZK (ZkSync) two shoutout tweets in a single day.
Remember when Vitalik showed moral support for $SOL devs back on Dec 30, 2022? $SOL pumped more than 200% right after. 👀
Remember when Vitalik showed moral support for $SOL devs back on Dec 30, 2022? $SOL pumped more than 200% right after. 👀
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BTC long-term holders have sold 405,000 BTC over the past 30 days.
That's serious profit booking
This round of profit-taking usually signals a mid-cycle adjustment, not a rush to exit.
This distribution provides the sell-side liquidity needed to absorb demand and cool down the rally, preventing an unsustainable 'blow-off top.'
Historically Similar deep red bars on the LTH Net Position chart have led to consolidation before the next, stronger move higher.
That's serious profit booking
This round of profit-taking usually signals a mid-cycle adjustment, not a rush to exit.
This distribution provides the sell-side liquidity needed to absorb demand and cool down the rally, preventing an unsustainable 'blow-off top.'
Historically Similar deep red bars on the LTH Net Position chart have led to consolidation before the next, stronger move higher.
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Wintermute's article points out that global liquidity is expanding - Central banks are cutting rates into relative strength, a historical sign of strong risk-on regimes ahead.
But funds have not flowed into the Crypto market.
Among the three major fund inflow engines that drove performance in the first half of this year:
✅ Stablecoins: Still growing strongly (+$100B YTD).
❌ ETF Inflows: Have stalled/plateaued since summer (BTC ETF AuM hovering around $150B).
❌ DAT Activity: Digital Asset Treasury corporate activity has dried up.
Market Structure & Outlook
Healthy Structure: Market leverage has been flushed, positioning is clean, and volatility is contained, making the structure solid.
The Key Driver is Liquidity: The traditional four-year cycle based on halving/miner dynamics is no longer the main driver; liquidity is.
The Signal: A renewed pickup in ETF inflows or DAT activity will be the key signal for capital returning to crypto and a potential catch-up leg to global risk assets.
But funds have not flowed into the Crypto market.
Among the three major fund inflow engines that drove performance in the first half of this year:
✅ Stablecoins: Still growing strongly (+$100B YTD).
❌ ETF Inflows: Have stalled/plateaued since summer (BTC ETF AuM hovering around $150B).
❌ DAT Activity: Digital Asset Treasury corporate activity has dried up.
Market Structure & Outlook
Healthy Structure: Market leverage has been flushed, positioning is clean, and volatility is contained, making the structure solid.
The Key Driver is Liquidity: The traditional four-year cycle based on halving/miner dynamics is no longer the main driver; liquidity is.
The Signal: A renewed pickup in ETF inflows or DAT activity will be the key signal for capital returning to crypto and a potential catch-up leg to global risk assets.
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🇺🇸 U.S. GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN COULD UNLEASH $1 TRILLION LIQUIDITY WAVE
It’s been 36 days since the U.S. government shutdown began on October 1st, making it the longest in U.S. history.
Once the shutdown ends, the government is expected to tap into its Treasury General Account (TGA) which holds around $1 trillion in cash reserves. ( the second-highest level since the Covid era.)
This money will be used to clear pending bills, injecting $1 trillion of fresh liquidity into the markets. 📈
It’s been 36 days since the U.S. government shutdown began on October 1st, making it the longest in U.S. history.
Once the shutdown ends, the government is expected to tap into its Treasury General Account (TGA) which holds around $1 trillion in cash reserves. ( the second-highest level since the Covid era.)
This money will be used to clear pending bills, injecting $1 trillion of fresh liquidity into the markets. 📈
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Market's so confusing even smart money turned dumb
Whale that went 25x long on $ETH after the 10/11 crash switched directions to short yesterday and get liquidated.
Now he switched directions again to go long, holding a long position of 12,938 ETH (~ $44 million), currently in an unrealized loss.
Whale that went 25x long on $ETH after the 10/11 crash switched directions to short yesterday and get liquidated.
Now he switched directions again to go long, holding a long position of 12,938 ETH (~ $44 million), currently in an unrealized loss.
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Trump New Tariffs on Hold
President Trump has confirmed that no new tariffs will be announced until the Supreme Court ruling on his existing tariff authority, to avoid interfering with the ongoing legal case.
The case is being fast-tracked given its major economic implications, but a final decision is expected only by early 2026.
If the Supreme Court rules against Trump’s current tariff powers (which has about a 70% probability), markets could witness a strong relief rally due to reduced trade uncertainty.
My take: At least for the next 3-4 months, the proceedings will continue meaning no new tariffs, more market certainty, and greater stability in the short term, the best timeline for Bulls & Whales to pump the market.
President Trump has confirmed that no new tariffs will be announced until the Supreme Court ruling on his existing tariff authority, to avoid interfering with the ongoing legal case.
The case is being fast-tracked given its major economic implications, but a final decision is expected only by early 2026.
If the Supreme Court rules against Trump’s current tariff powers (which has about a 70% probability), markets could witness a strong relief rally due to reduced trade uncertainty.
My take: At least for the next 3-4 months, the proceedings will continue meaning no new tariffs, more market certainty, and greater stability in the short term, the best timeline for Bulls & Whales to pump the market.
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Crypto quant data indicates institutional re-entry into the Ethereum market.
Amid recent volatility that pushed $ETH near the $3,200 mark, whale activity picked up, a recurring signal often seen during local bottom formations and early accumulation phases.
Current data suggests that large investors are quietly rebuilding positions at lower levels.
If Ethereum sustains support within the $3,000 - $3,400 range, it could consolidate into a low-volatility accumulation zone, setting the stage for a potential breakout toward the $4,500 - $4,800 region.
Amid recent volatility that pushed $ETH near the $3,200 mark, whale activity picked up, a recurring signal often seen during local bottom formations and early accumulation phases.
Current data suggests that large investors are quietly rebuilding positions at lower levels.
If Ethereum sustains support within the $3,000 - $3,400 range, it could consolidate into a low-volatility accumulation zone, setting the stage for a potential breakout toward the $4,500 - $4,800 region.
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