Tonight, there is a high probability of a large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack being carried out on Ukraine. Here's what we know so far:

There are currently 7 Tu-95MS stationed at Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast. 6-7 of these are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles and are expected to take part in any combat sorties.

At Engels-2 Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, there are 2-3 Tu-160 strategic bombers equipped with Kh-101s. They are likely to take part in any combat sorties. The Tu-95MS and 1 other Tu-160 stationed there are there for training purposes.

1 frigate of the "Admiral Makarov" type, 1 frigate of the "Admiral Essen" type, and 1 submarine of the "Varshavyanka" type are equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, and stationed at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai. They are likely going to take part in any missile attacks.

3-4 MiG-31Ks stationed at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, are equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles. They may take part in any combat sorties. The 2 other MiG-31Ks equipped with missiles stationed at Akhtubinsk Airbase, Astrakhan Oblast, are not expected to take part.

At least four Iskander OTRK installations have received deliveries of Iskander-M ballistic missiles and/or Iskander-K cruise missiles. These are in Bryansk Oblast, Kursk Oblast, Voronezh Oblast, and Rostov Oblast. Their usage tonight is possible but not confirmed.

After weeks of accumulation, there are over 500 Geran-2, Geran-3, and Gerbera drones ready to launch from 10-11 different directions surrounding Ukraine.

The chances of a missile attack taking place tonight is not 100%, but it is likely (~75%).

Will cover news to do with Gerans here as usual up until any missile attacks.

General movements of Russian Geran-2 drones. Currently, ~9 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

General movements of Russian Geran-2 drones. Currently, ~16 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

A Su-34 covered by a Su-35 are flying to their launch lines in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

KAB launches, possibly to Zaporizhzhia City

High threat to Zaporizhzhia City

These could be Grom-E1 rocket-powered glide-bombs. Monitoring.

The KABs are flying towards the Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk border, southwest of Zaporizhzhia city

They were launched from a very high altitude, so will fly further than usual.

Yes, these are Grom-E1s.

They will fly over the western outskirts of Zaporizhzhia City, and will probably go further north

Explosions in western Zaporizhzhia

Most of the drones that were in Ukrainian airspace earlier were Gerbera decoy drones. Only a few remain in Chernihiv Oblast.

High activity of Russian tactical aviation in the south. 1 Su-30SM is flying east of Snake Island. 1 MiG-29 and 2 Su-35s are flying over Crimea.

Explosions in Chernihiv City. Gerans.

Chernihiv

Hulyaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, is under a large KAB attack

Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, is under a large KAB attack

General movements of Russian Geran-2 drones. Currently, ~25 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

General movements of Russian Geran-2 drones. Currently, ~30 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.